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“...Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
97501
SECTOR REPORTS
NEPAL EARTHQUAKE POST DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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“...INTRODUCTION
The Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) assesses the impact of the April 25, 2015 earthquake in Nepal and defines a recovery strategy. This volume provides detailed description of sector specific damage, losses and recovery needs.
Each sector chapter includes the following sections:
a) Summary;
b) Pre-disaster baseline and analysis of context that existed prior to the disaster;
c) Post-disaster context including sector preparedness and response;
d) Assessment of the damage and loss including costs;
e) Assessment of disaster effects and impact;
f) Recovery needs and strategy including costs;
g) Implementation arrangements; and
h) Assessment methodology.
In the analysis, damage is defined as the cost to replace durable physical assets (buildings, equipment, facilities and machinery) that were damaged or destroyed. Loss refers to changes in financial flows due to the temporary absence of infrastructure, increased or new demands (operational costs) due to the disaster, lost revenues...”
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“...million and total loss at NPRs 46,748 million. The damage accounts for physical housing damage and damage to household goods, the loss for demolition and debris clearance, transitional shelters and rental loss. The damage and loss for the real estate sector have also been included. This sectoral assessment targeted 31 districts identified as affected districts by the Government of Nepal (GoN). The baseline was provided by the 2011 census, and the housing damage information was provided by the DRR Portal (http://drrportal.gov.np/)1 which summarize the information collected by Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of Nepal.
The damage data was categorized as "Fully Damaged" and "Partially Damaged". However, due to the lack of uniform criteria for partial damage, the damage value was calculated based on a certain logic (described in Annex-1) assuming a certain level of uncertainty.
Based on the damage and loss, recovery and reconstruction needs were calculated as NPRs 327,762 million, including i)...”
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“...been calculated on the basis of number of households made homeless. Considering the average number of households per house for each district, the total requirement was calculated as 609,938 houses to be constructed. This number may change after much needed house-to-house damage assessment.
Pre-Disaster Context and Baseline
2.1 Policies on Housing and Settlements
Several Constitutional Acts and policies are particularly relevant for housing and settlements sector. The 2007 Interim Constitution of Nepal stresses the responsibility of the state to provide land especially to the economically weak and/or landless people. The 2012 National Shelter Policy further stresses the right to safe and adequate housing to all.
The 2007 National Urban Policy aims for (i) settlement and economic activities in stressing balanced national urban structure, (ii) development of safe and prosperous settlement areas by increasing the resilience against environmental shocks and stresses, and (iii) effective urban management...”
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“... authority for apartments in the country.
The 1999 Nepal Engineers Act is the basis for a registration system for engineers through Nepal Engineers' Council (NEC). To bring a positive change in the current engineering practice, a system of competency based registration with periodic renewal is required. The current Engineers' Act does not include liability provision.
The National Plan of Action for Safer Building Construction is a comprehensive action plan which is currently in draft stage.
The 2013 Environment Friendly Local Governance (EFLG) Framework aims to promote voluntary compliance in the environmental management sector at local level. It comprises of the process, mechanism and motivation for achieving and recognizing a set of well-developed indicators for municipalities, VDCs and DDCs.
2.2 Land tenure related issues
Different tenure systems (i.e. statutory, customary, religious and informal, urban vs. rural) co-exist in Nepal. Almost all cultivable land, 27% of the total land mass...”
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“...Like many other South Asian countries, Nepal has experienced increased urbanization in recent decades. Nepal is predominantly rural, with an urbanization level of about 38%. The decadal urban growth rate between 2001 and 2011 was 6.4%. However, Kathmandu with 61% decadal growth has witnessed a disproportionate influx from rural areas. The disaster risk to cities is of particular concern, as they are concentrations of people and serve as engines for economic growth. The 2015 earthquake has affected a total of 41 municipalities and many market areas.
2.3.2. Urban Planning and Development: A Case of Kathmandu Valley (KV)
The case of Kathmandu city is important to understand urban risk scenario as it impacts a large population. Land use change modelling and analysis has shown that the urban morphology of Kathmandu valley has changed drastically in the past two decades, with a 211% increase in built up area between 1992 and 2012. This has occurred through an equivalent loss of cultivated land...”
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“...by building type or urban / rural context. This assessment was conducted rapidly and is not a technical assessment. Past earthquake experiences elsewhere have shown that the balance of destroyed to partially damaged buildings is rarely this high, though the particular nature of this earthquake may explain this. For operationalizing the recovery strategy, a more rigorous technical house-to-house assessment will be necessary.
The catastrophic impact of the earthquake on the built environment of Nepal is primarily the result of the significant seismic vulnerability of unreinforced masonry buildings predominant throughout the country. There is a general lack of awareness of seismic risk in communities, coupled with lack of dissemination of improved construction practices (particularly rural areas), and a slow mechanism for enforcement of relevant building codes.
Most of the areas where buildings suffered damage were not subject to enforcement of the Building Code and Standards. Even in municipal...”
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“...is quite high among Dalits, induced by a need to escape caste discrimination in the domestic labor market (Source: Dalits and Labor in Nepal: Discrimination and Forced Labor, ILO, 2005). Amongst hill dalits, the Kami, Damai and Sarki are the most marginalised and are likely to have high migration. Amongst Terai dalits, Dorns, Chamar, Satar, Tatmas, Dushads, Mushars, Dhankerand indigenous communities of Santhal, Munda, Jhangad and Kisan are the most landless. Women headed households of Dalit communities will be the most vulnerable. It is therefore necessary to facilitate, support and monitor the progress of recovery of these groups.
4.3 Land Use and Clustering of Housing
In a post-disaster scenario, ensuring life safety and therefore prioritizing risk and vulnerability assessment in future events is essential. If the settlement we are dealing with is at high risk, re-clustering/ relocation should be considered. However, before considering any such re-clustering, following suggestions should...”
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“...should involve review of future seismic hazards based on latest knowledge of seismology and geo-tech studies including analysis of recorded data of the Nepal Earthquake and define earthquake loads to structures as in NBC 105, etc.
With this comprehensive planning, building permission, registration and inspection (i.e. simplified building administration for rural housing linked with quality inspection), land title and registration, open space creation, emergency transportation network, preservation and management can provide comprehensive approach to strengthen resilience.
Within the urban environment, three types of distinct categories are emerging which demand well targeted and specialized interventions in order to meet their requirements: i) Kathmandu Valley metropolitan and sub-metropolitan areas, ii) heritage settlements, and iii) small and new municipalities. Special attention has to be given to settlements with heritage importance to ensure improvement of housing stock while maintaining...”
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“...workers for reconstruction only, which is significant compared to the current estimates of one million workers already involved in the housing sector (ILO). A significant amount of unskilled work will likely be undertaken by family members themselves, which will alleviate some of this need.
Of main concern is the skilled workforce, which constitutes around 46% of the needed laborers. The housing component alone may need over 20,000 masons who are often part-time workers, or migrating between Nepal, India and the Middle East. This sector of the labor market need to be augmented through large scale geographically distributed training.
5.3 Financial and Socio-Technical Facilitation
There is a need to develop a project implementation and management structure for socio-technical facilitation for house-owners undertaking reconstruction, repairs and retrofitting. National, District and VDC level mechanisms will have to be setup to help people for access to banking, material supplies, training...”
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“...on vast variety of technical issues that is expected to arise during the course of the project. Members should have broad experience in post-disaster recovery; understanding of Nepali building typologies and materials, particularly the non-engineered materials and technologies; understanding of Nepal building codes and standards; geography of Nepal; expertise in geotechnical field, understanding of socio-cultural situation of Nepal; experience in capacity building. Under the guidance of Technical Committee, Technical Guidelines may have to be prepared for - i) disaster resistant reconstruction for different building typologies; and ii) repairs and retrofitting of partially damaged buildings. Nepal National Building Code Development Project, DUDBC, UNESCO, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, World Housing Encyclopedia, Architecture Institute of Japan, etc. along with traditional local wisdom could be used to evolve a set of guidelines. The Technical Committee could guide preparation...”
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“...professional institutions are involved in concurrent quality assurance to provide this feedback and the government mechanism can then take appropriate decisions to redress the issues.
5.8 Risk Coverage through Insurance of Houses
Insurance coverage for damaged housing stock is almost non-existant in the context of Nepal. Thus, such liabilities end up with the government as a final guarantor. Hence, the need for some form of direct government assistance is more acute, necessitated by lack of insurance cover, scarcity of savings, and higher poverty levels. This may be appropriate time to think and encourage insurance coverage of all reconstructed and retrofitted houses. Government of Nepal may identify appropriate policy framework and mechanisms to promote insurance of the housing stock that is created under reconstruction and recovery initiatives.
Assessment Methodology
The assessment of damage, loss and consequent recovery needs has been based on overall damage data provided by Ministry of Home...”
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“...typologies were simplified into three predominant types: (1) low strength (mud mortar based) masonry, (2) cement based masonry and (3) reinforced concrete frame. Damages were distributed between building types based on vulnerability curves developed by NSET. Details on the damage distribution to different type of buildings are given in Annex-1.
The size of each house type was estimated at 600 sqft for low strength masonry (average size according to the "National Living Standard Survey 2010/11, Nepal"), 900 sqft for cement mortared houses (reflecting more well-to-do households), and 3,000 sqft for reinforced concrete (predominantly urban and multistorey).
Cost per sq.ft, was calculated as NPRs 700 for low strength masonry, NPRs 1,200 for cement based masonry and NPRs 2,000 for reinforced concrete. These rates are based on prevailing market rates.
Total damage was calculated as the replacement cost of fully destroyed buildings based on the values above, and repair (return to previous state)...”
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“...extensive damage were used for calculation of ratio for partial damage.
The factors derived from the relative vulnerability of the buildings for different intensities are given below:
Table 12: Factors derived from the relative vulnerability of the buildings for different intensities
MMI PGA Damage LSM CBM RC
VI 0.12 Complete 1.00 0.00 0.00
Partial 0.93 0.07 0.00
VI+ 0.17 Complete 0.93 0.07 0.00
Partial 0.60 0.31 0.09
2 Ramesh Guragain, 2015, Development of Earthquake Risk Assessment System for Nepal, PhD Dissertation, The University of Tokyo, Japan
3 HAZUS-MH. (2003). "Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology." Department of Homeland Security, Emergency Preparedness and Response Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Washington D.C.
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“...structural damage, slight non-structural damage
G2 Slight structural damage, moderate non-structural damage
G3 Moderate structural damage, heavy non-structural damage
G4 Heavy structural damage, very heavy non-structural damage
G5 Destruction - very heavy structural damage
Detailed indicators are required based on the parameters presented above. Department of Urban Development and Building Construction, Government of Nepal has already developed guidelines on the above, however that needs updating taking into account Nepalese building typologies and experience gained from the 2015 Nepal Earthquake.
Building Damage Categorization
For financial assistance, a weightage based building damage categorization method is required which needs to be developed taking into account damage at component level, however the categorization system should be transparent. Financial assistance should be based on % of building damage. The % damage will be evaluated based on damaged components and likely resource requirement...”
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“...better. The work accomplished by the assessment team has provided (i) analysis of the situation before the earthquake, (ii) a thorough assessment of damage and losses incurred following the earthquake and an estimation of the effect of the earthquake on health and population related services; and (iii) identification of needs for recovery and reconstruction in immediate, intermediate and medium terms.
The following section presents the summary of the findings.
The situation before the earthquake: Nepal was making significant progress in the overall health situation, with a maternal mortality ratio of 190 per 100,000 live births in 2013
1 and infant mortality rate of 46 per 1,000 live births in 20111 2. In 2011, life expectancy at birth was estimated to be 65.5 years for male and 67.9 years for female3. Total Fertility has declined significantly to 2.6 births per woman in 2011 from about 5 births per woman in 1990. Per capita government expenditure on health is 827 in 2013/14 while the per capita...”
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“...Hospitals PHCCs HPs Total
Highly affected (14) 26 44 723 793
Moderately affected (17) 20 44 882 946
Others (44) 58 120 2,201 2,379
Total 104 208 3,806 4,118
Source: Annual Report 2070/71, DoHS
Bedsides above-mentioned facilities, Ayurveda health services are being delivered through two hospitals 14 Zonal Aushadhalayas, 61 District Ayurveda Health centers and 214 Aushadhalayas in the country. Moreover, more than 350 health facilities in private sector cater the health care demands of the population in Nepal majority of them being in Kathmandu Valley and other urban areas. Further to this, Department of Drug Administration also has four regional offices in addition to its central office for the regulation and quality control of drugs and equipment.
Population profile shows that highly and moderately affected districts respectively consist of 20% and 17% of the total population in the country. Highly and moderately affected districts respectively consist of 19.0 and 16.6 percent of expected pregnancies...”
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“...road, agriculture road). These information are collected from department of roads and the concerned stakeholders which is mapped in GIS system and used for analysis. Besides, availability of other services such as agricultural, educational, commercial, administrative services also contribute in gaining higher score.
Note: A = highly affected, B = moderately affected, C = others
References
Central Bureau of Statistics. (2011). Nepal Living Standard Survey 2010/11. Kathmandu: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Central Bureau of Statistics. (2014). Population Monograph of Nepal 2014, Volume 2. Kathmandu: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Department of Health Services. (2014). Annual Report 2070/71. Kathmandu: Department of Health Services.
Department of Health Services. (2014/15). Estimated Target Population Fiscal Year 2071/72 (2014/2015). Kathmandu: Management Division, Department of Health Services.
Ministry of Finance. (2013/14). Red Book. Kathmandu: Ministry of Finance.
Ministry of Home Affairs....”
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“...NUTRITION
Summary
Undernutrition has been a longstanding problem in Nepal depicted by the high burden of key child undernutrition indicators such as stunting and wasting that currently stand at 37.5 and 11.3 percent respectively at the national level. The most recently available pre-earthquake data collated from Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2014 and Small Area Estimation (SAE) 2014 indicated high child undernutrition rates in the affected districts. Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) practices were also found to be sub-optimal in those districts.
Given its cross cutting nature, the nutrition sector does not have separate infrastructure to operate nutrition programming. Nutrition specific interventions are provided through the health facilities and community based extension services provided by Female Community Health Volunteers (FCHVs). Nutrition sensitive interventions are provided through related sectors such as education, agriculture, and water sanitation and hygiene....”
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“...low birth weight.
In order to comprehend the degree of problem at district level before the earthquake; data was collated for the affected districts to the data of the corresponding eco-development region presented by MICS 2014. Table 1 provides a summary of key nutrition indicators taken from the MICS 2014 as baseline information of the situation prior to the earthquake.
1 Government of Nepal, National Planning Commission Secretariat, Central Bureau of Statistics and UNICEF (2O15.)Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014, Key Findings and Tables.
2 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (2011)
3 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (2006)
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