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“...Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
97501
SECTOR REPORTS
NEPAL EARTHQUAKE POST DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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“...INTRODUCTION
The Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) assesses the impact of the April 25, 2015 earthquake in Nepal and defines a recovery strategy. This volume provides detailed description of sector specific damage, losses and recovery needs.
Each sector chapter includes the following sections:
a) Summary;
b) Pre-disaster baseline and analysis of context that existed prior to the disaster;
c) Post-disaster context including sector preparedness and response;
d) Assessment of the damage and loss including costs;
e) Assessment of disaster effects and impact;
f) Recovery needs and strategy including costs;
g) Implementation arrangements; and
h) Assessment methodology.
In the analysis, damage is defined as the cost to replace durable physical assets (buildings, equipment, facilities and machinery) that were damaged or destroyed. Loss refers to changes in financial flows due to the temporary absence of infrastructure, increased or new demands (operational costs) due to the disaster, lost revenues...”
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“...Summary
The earthquake has impacted the housing and human settlements sector the most. The total effect (damage and loss) on this sector is valued at NPRs 350,379 million, with total damage valued at NPRs 303,531 million and total loss at NPRs 46,748 million. The damage accounts for physical housing damage and damage to household goods, the loss for demolition and debris clearance, transitional shelters and rental loss. The damage and loss for the real estate sector have also been included. This sectoral assessment targeted 31 districts identified as affected districts by the Government of Nepal (GoN). The baseline was provided by the 2011 census, and the housing damage information was provided by the DRR Portal (http://drrportal.gov.np/)1 which summarize the information collected by Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of Nepal.
The damage data was categorized as "Fully Damaged" and "Partially Damaged". However, due to the lack of uniform criteria for partial damage, the damage value was...”
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“...RC Frame 16,971 10,182
HH goods 16,382
Real estate sector 4,210
Total Damage 303,631
Loss Demolition and debris clearance 9,781
Transitional shelters 14,968
Rental Loss 1,999
Real estate 20,000
Total Loss 46,748
Total Effect (Damage and Loss) 350,379
Recovery of housing sector is proposed to be based on principles of equity, inclusion and participation of communities through an owner driven reconstruction approach while ensuring 'build back better' considerations. However, taking into account that only 19.7% of women own land and houses, recovery efforts will take account of the needs of female headed houses, senior citizens and other vulnerable social groups who may not have land ownership. The affected families will be supported to reconstruct, repair and retrofit their houses depending on the extent of damage with financial support, technical guidance, social mobilization and skill up gradation. Financial support in tranches will be based on compliance to disaster resistant...”
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“...Training, facilitation and quality assurance costs 2.5% 7,841
Urban Planning (including heritage settlement planning) 2% 6,273
Total 327,762
It may be noted that number of houses to be reconstructed has been calculated on the basis of number of households made homeless. Considering the average number of households per house for each district, the total requirement was calculated as 609,938 houses to be constructed. This number may change after much needed house-to-house damage assessment.
Pre-Disaster Context and Baseline
2.1 Policies on Housing and Settlements
Several Constitutional Acts and policies are particularly relevant for housing and settlements sector. The 2007 Interim Constitution of Nepal stresses the responsibility of the state to provide land especially to the economically weak and/or landless people. The 2012 National Shelter Policy further stresses the right to safe and adequate housing to all.
The 2007 National Urban Policy aims for (i) settlement and economic activities...”
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“...significant.
In addition to these, additional tenure types include i) unidentified religious and traditional tenure types which are not recorded in the land register; ii) informal tenure in the form of informal and squatter settlements, including riverside and highway-side slums and those established on the periphery of urban areas; and iii) dual ownership with tenancy where the tenant does not have absolute right and ownership over the land.
The residential and agricultural land of almost all earthquake affected areas is mapped and registered with formal title. Some land parcels in newly settled areas on the periphery of the villages may be unmapped or unregistered and lack formal title.
2.3 Urban Growth and Current Planning Initiatives
2.3.1. Urban Settlements and Population Influx
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“...Like many other South Asian countries, Nepal has experienced increased urbanization in recent decades. Nepal is predominantly rural, with an urbanization level of about 38%. The decadal urban growth rate between 2001 and 2011 was 6.4%. However, Kathmandu with 61% decadal growth has witnessed a disproportionate influx from rural areas. The disaster risk to cities is of particular concern, as they are concentrations of people and serve as engines for economic growth. The 2015 earthquake has affected a total of 41 municipalities and many market areas.
2.3.2. Urban Planning and Development: A Case of Kathmandu Valley (KV)
The case of Kathmandu city is important to understand urban risk scenario as it impacts a large population. Land use change modelling and analysis has shown that the urban morphology of Kathmandu valley has changed drastically in the past two decades, with a 211% increase in built up area between 1992 and 2012. This has occurred through an equivalent loss of cultivated land...”
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“...seismic detailing has become more common in recent years, older buildings have no ductile detailing.
4) Wood and bamboo buildings: These buildings are constructed of timber or bamboo with wooden plank, thatch or bamboo strip walling materials with flexible floor and roof. These suffered less damage from the earthquake due to their light weight.
Table 3: Existing building typology in the affected 31 districts (Ref CBS 2011)
Low Masonry strength Cement masonry based Reinforced Concrete Frame Wood and Bamboo based
58% 21% 15% 6%
Post-Disaster Context
3.1. Building damage analysis
A large-scale impact survey was conducted by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) during the month following the earthquake. Results show that a total of 498,852 houses have fully collapsed or are damaged
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“...damaged. This data does not categorize the damage by building type or urban / rural context. This assessment was conducted rapidly and is not a technical assessment. Past earthquake experiences elsewhere have shown that the balance of destroyed to partially damaged buildings is rarely this high, though the particular nature of this earthquake may explain this. For operationalizing the recovery strategy, a more rigorous technical house-to-house assessment will be necessary.
The catastrophic impact of the earthquake on the built environment of Nepal is primarily the result of the significant seismic vulnerability of unreinforced masonry buildings predominant throughout the country. There is a general lack of awareness of seismic risk in communities, coupled with lack of dissemination of improved construction practices (particularly rural areas), and a slow mechanism for enforcement of relevant building codes.
Most of the areas where buildings suffered damage were not subject to enforcement of the...”
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“...Types of Damage in Masonry Buildings: Lack of integrity between different structural members and inherent weak properties of the materials was the main cause of failures in the masonry buildings. The main types of damages are listed as follows:
• Parapet and gable wall toppling
• Delamination of low strength masonry walls
• Out of plane toppling of walls
• Corner separation of walls
• Various types of wall failures under in-plane loading such as diagonal cracks, sliding cracks, crushing of piers, failure of spandrels
• Collapse of floor and roof due to loss of vertical load bearing elements such as walls
Main Types of Damage in RC Building: Damage to RC buildings is also predominantly because of lack of strength and ductility. The main causes of failures are as follows:
• Toppling of parapets, infill walls and partition walls
• Damage to Infill-Walls: Diagonal, sliding cracks, crushing of piers in infill walls
• Soft storey failure (collapse of building due to concentration of damage in a ...”
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“...from house reconstruction.
4.2 Gender and Social Inclusion
Gender: The recovery and reconstruction process must pay considerable attention to women-headed households, significant in earthquake affected districts. The women heading the family are already overburdened with their routine household activities including accessing basic services and their contribution to the farm. In such an environment, any role in the recovery and reconstruction process will only add more responsibilities and raise their workload to unsustainable levels. This situation needs to be analyzed while engaging women in the recovery and reconstruction process, including through skills development and capacity building and provision of creche services.
The average literacy rate of women is 45 percent, and even lower in the remote earthquake affected areas. This should be considered whilst developing the construction management plan both for temporary and permanent shelter, in order to allow partially literate women to...”
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“...homes were in fact salvageable. Owners of RC frame buildings are in a difficult situation as buildings may be perilously standing and need special skills and tools to be demolished. The disposal of debris will need proper planning and environmental considerations, so as to avoid blocking waterways or damaging agricultural lands.
Planning for Reconstruction: Planning for reconstruction will require a comprehensive, rigorous and transparent house-to-house damage assessment and eligibility survey to understand the nature and extent of damage and eligibility for the government reconstruction assistance program. Detailed policy packages for reconstruction of houses, repairs and retrofitting covering all types of affected social groups particularly the poor and vulnerable, tenants and women households, and families living in difficult
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“...include: monitoring systems for urban displacement and migration, detailed hazard mapping, participatory planning exercises, rapid urban expansion studies, facilitated management structures (bringing together communities, government and private sector), rental stock support plans and more.
Beyond ensuring that all homes are rebuilt to hazard-resilient standards, reconstruction further aims at start addressing underlying processes that create vulnerability (even beyond the areas affected by the earthquake). As such, recovery should foster reformative rather than restorative processes. Such a "reformative recovery" should start to tackle underlying causes of vulnerability and risk, based on in depth studies. Common causes of vulnerability include lack of risk awareness, lack of dissemination and training of artisans and builders in safe construction practices, lack enforcement of building standards, lack of high-technical capacity of the private engineering practice, and more.
Overall, the r...”
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“...consideration, particularly for material transportation, cash transfer and technical facilitation and monitoring.
5.1 Building Damage and Eligibility Survey for Recovery
It is critical that a house-to-house damage assessment and eligibility survey is carried out in order to identify specific damages to homes in order to ascertain the eligibility for housing recovery assistance in a uniform and transparent manner. The survey will also present the opportunity to identify vulnerable households (people living with disability, senior citizens, widows and single mothers etc) who may need additional support in house construction and in attaining ownership. It should be conducted as soon as possible, before conditions of homes are altered due to the monsoon, or self-recovery (i.e. early reconstruction) or demolition by households. The assessment will link a particular damage state and building typology to a specific safe reconstruction activity (example: repair of a wall, or complete reconstruction...”
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“...committing to roles and responsibilities of the household (to construct following government approved standards, to use assistance only for housing construction, etc) and the government. The assessment is also a key avenue to communicate to households the steps for recovery (example: opening a bank account to receive assistance, receiving training on reconstruction practices, etc.).
5.2 Building Construction Technologies, Materials Supply and Labor
5.2.1 Building Construction Technology
The earthquake has clearly exposed the vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes, and enhancements are required to ensure that reconstruction adheres to building back better practices. Most heavily damaged buildings did not comply with any of the National building regulations and guides.
The provision of basic disaster resistant elements (i.e. corner stitches, vertical reinforcement, diagonal bracing and horizontal bands, etc), coupled with adherence to proper masonry construction practices should be made...”
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“...involving about 62 engineers and 15 senior engineers and 31 District Coordinators.
This whole human resource structure for facilitation of such a large recovery effort will have to be managed by the proposed National Reconstruction Authority, The total five year budget for the cost of the socio technical facilitation including human resources, training, quality assurance and other governance functions is provided as 2.5% of total needs.
5.5 Technical Committee
Identification of causes of heavy damage to buildings like soil profiles, improper design and detailing, poor construction practice, etc. will be the basis for development of feasible technical solutions for improvement. Measures will have to be identified for reconstruction of each building typology. Similarly,
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“...complexities of the building stock in the earthquake affected areas and their rehabilitation, role of an expert group headed by an earthquake engineering advisor is envisioned to advice on vast variety of technical issues that is expected to arise during the course of the project. Members should have broad experience in post-disaster recovery; understanding of Nepali building typologies and materials, particularly the non-engineered materials and technologies; understanding of Nepal building codes and standards; geography of Nepal; expertise in geotechnical field, understanding of socio-cultural situation of Nepal; experience in capacity building. Under the guidance of Technical Committee, Technical Guidelines may have to be prepared for - i) disaster resistant reconstruction for different building typologies; and ii) repairs and retrofitting of partially damaged buildings. Nepal National Building Code Development Project, DUDBC, UNESCO, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, World Housing...”
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“...mechanisms to promote insurance of the housing stock that is created under reconstruction and recovery initiatives.
Assessment Methodology
The assessment of damage, loss and consequent recovery needs has been based on overall damage data provided by Ministry of Home Affairs through the DRR portal. The data was collected through DDRC from VDCs and categorised as fully collapsed and partially damaged houses. As per the damage data, 498,852 houses have fully collapsed and 256,697 houses are partially damaged.
Field visits were made to Chautara (Dist. Sindhupalchowk), Khokna (Dist. Lalitpur), Bhaktapur (Dist. Bhaktapur), Gangabhu (Kathmandu), Sankhu (Dist. Kathmandu) and Gorakha (Dist Gorakha) to understand damages (type and extent) and government assessment methodology. Our discussions with government officials involved in the damage data collection at district level indicated that buildings deemed damaged to the point that repair would be too expensive were counted as fully damaged.
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“...6.2 Damage to Household Goods Calculation
Damage to household goods was based on an estimated value of household goods by building type. It was further estimated that in fully damaged houses, 60% of household goods were destroyed, versus 20% in partially damaged houses.
6.3 Demolitions and Debris Clearance Cost Calculations
While buildings may be "fully damaged," many among them will still be standing in some form, and need to be demolished. It was estimated that amongst the fully damaged low strength masonry homes, 20% would need further demolition, 40% for cement based masonry, and 80% for RC frame buildings. Demolition costs were estimated at 5% replacement costs, while clearance was estimated as NRs 8,000, NRs 20,000 and NRs 250,000 respectively for low strength masonry, cement mortared masonry and RC buildings.
6.4 Real Estate Sector Damage and Loss Calculations
Real Estate Sector private bungalows, high-rise apartments, commercial complexes suffered damages in the Earthquake. The...”
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“...occupation.
Table 9: Rental Loss Calculation
Districts Average Monthly Rent (NPRs) Damaged Rental Units Destroyed Rental Units
Kathmandu 21,350 30,182 21,988
Bhaktapur, Lalitpur, Patan 14,850 5,415 13,063
Other districts 4,200 20,492 7,958
6.5 Transitional Shelter Cost Calculation
The number of transitional shelters required is based on households affected by fully destroyed houses. As per the available data 609,938 households will need some form of temporary sheltering solution, based on the damage data and the number of households per house.
Cost estimations of temporary shelter are based on the shelter packages guide by the National Planning Commission. The package should provide approximately 300 sq.ft, of covered space, roofed by 2 bundles of CGI sheets, and leveraging salvageable materials. Considering use of salvaged materials, additional cost of NPRs 24,540 will be required for such a shelter.
6.6 Needs for Housing Reconstruction and Retrofitting Calculation
The need for housing...”
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