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“...HIMALAYA, the Journal of the
Association for Nepal and
Himalayan Studies
Volume 37 | Number 2
Article 6
December 2017
Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty: Seismicity
and Hydropower Development in Nepal
Christopher Butler
University of California - Santa Cruz, cjbutler(3)ucsc.edu
Matthaus Rest
University of Munich, m.rest(3)lmu.de
Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya
Recommended Citation
Butler, Christopher and Rest, Matthaus (2017) "Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty: Seismicity and Hydropower Development in
Nepal," HIMALAYA, the Journal of the Association for Nepal and Himalayan Studies: Vol. 37 : No. 2, Article 6.
Available at: http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya/vol37/iss2/6
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Macalester College
This Research Article is brought to you for free and open access by the
DigitalCommons(2)Macalester College at DigitalCommons(2)Macalester
College. It has been accepted...”
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“...Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty: Seismicity and Hydropower
Development in Nepal
Acknowledgements
The authors thank Sienna Craig, Mark Turin, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on
this article. Research was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Humer Foundation for
Academic Talent and the European Research Council-funded project "Remoteness and Connectivity:
Highland Asia in the World.’
This research article is available in HIMALAYA, the Journal of the Association for Nepal and Himalayan Studies:
http:/ / digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya/vol37/iss2/6...”
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“...finance, which are highly contingent upon Nepal
presenting itself as a 'safe' zone for investment.
Our study focuses on the elites of Nepal's hydro
community: the developers, investors, water
experts, and government officials who occupy
the 'upstream' positions at which scientific
knowledge is produced and adjudicated. On
one hand, the denial or omission of earthquake
potential that we witnessed seems to identify
the ineluctable challenges that Nepal faces
in attempting to integrate its economy into
global markets; on the other hand, it indicates
the desire of the private sector to reap
profits from hydropower in spite of obvious
geophysical dangers. These dangers, we
argue, are a bankable risk for these elites.
However, for the people directly affected by
new hydropower infrastructures, these are
risks and uncertainties threatening already
vulnerable livelihoods.
Keywords: seismicity, hydropower, infrastructure, uncertainty,
financialization of risk, Nepal.
HIMALAYA Volume37,Number2 15...”
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“...Introduction
The Nepal April 2015 earthquake devastated infrastructure
in the middle third of the country. It rendered many roads,
paths, bridges, and hillsides structurally unsafe for use or
habitation. Several hydropower plants were also knocked
off-line—a staggering blow for a country already contend-
ing with year-round load shedding, and needing reliable
energy to fuel its reconstruction efforts.
Given the country’s deep-seated aspirations for hydro-
power as a future pathway to development (Butler 2016;
Lord 2014; Rest 2012), analyses of the damage to existing
plants and those under construction quickly emerged.
The Nepal Electricity Authority reported that 150MW
(megawatts) of electricity generation had been lost in
the earthquake from a national portfolio of just 774MW
(Pangeni 2015), and that this loss represented an ‘acutely
small level of...capacity in a nation of 28 million people’
(Schneider 2015). Furthermore, several projects in devel-
opment were set back months and years...”
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“...the major new
foreign-funded projects in Nepal, one of us asked about
the danger of a dam failure caused by an earthquake. He
replied: “This is a silly question. All the components will be
defined on the basis of earthquake risks.” That was that.
And yet, as quickly as a developer dismissed questions
about seismic risk, they would also vouch for the unpre-
dictability of rivers. One respondent admitted that he
was concerned with the number of dams proposed for
construction in the case of seismic activity: “I’ve spent 35
years on these rivers... You always have that risk... they
are unpredictable.” A second developer told us, “The
Himalayas are young mountains and still have a lot of
motion in their formation.” But when asked if he thought
Nepal should curb its aspirations for hydro development,
he dismissed the notion because time was of the essence:
“If we don’t build hydropower now, India will build its own
and no longer need electricity from [Nepal].” So, how do
we explain this disjuncture...”
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“...since the 8.0 magnitude
Nepal-Bihar earthquake in 1934 that killed an estimated
11,000 people. And the general seismicity of Nepal is also a
largely accepted truth, supported by the country’s various
policies, plans, and programs dedicated to disaster pre-
paredness and risk reduction. These include the Natural
Calamity Relief Act of 1982, the Nepal Risk Reduction
Consortium formed in 2009, and the Kathmandu Valley
Earthquake Risk Management Project. That the April 25
earthquake occurred on a Saturday likely saved thousands
of lives because school was not in session and that morning
many Nepali were outdoors enjoying the spring weather.
That the diminished loss of life was owed to any sort of
preparation on the part of the Nepali government and its
many multinational supporters was generally discounted
(Sharma 2015; Useem, Kunreuther & Michel-Kerjan 2015).
Considering the current state of hydropower generation
in Nepal, it might be surprising to learn that in Nepal
electricity production...”
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“...dealing with risk, but
extreme uncertainty about the future of their lives, homes,
and livelihoods—far beyond their access to electricity.
Whereas professionals use models to project the structural
integrity of dams and potential earnings from electricity
sales, the people living in close proximity to hydropower
projects have no way to calculate and manage the ‘risks’
that these interventions will mean on the ground.
Socially Organized Denial
The slow government response to the 2015 earthquake in
Nepal threatens to exacerbate social inequality, alter com-
munity structures, and generate new patterns of economic
and social conflict. How is it that this major catastrophic
event has failed to cause a strong response from the hydro-
power industry? What can explain the disjuncture between
lived experience and public concern? What can we say
about the prevailing opinions about seismicity that existed
prior to the 2015 earthquake and continue to neutralize
or muffle a stronger outcry for stricter...”
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“...processes bound by perception, many forms of denial are
produced (and contested). Culturally prescribed norms
about how to think (or not think) about things reflect a
particularly insidious form of social control.
If socially organized denial is shaped in response to social
circumstance, Nepali hydropower’s version of denial
would be defined by the country’s long-standing and
frustrating attempts at development. Numerous scholars
have documented the deeply engrained nature of develop-
ment in Nepal (cf. Pigg 1993; Shrestha 1997), wherein being
developed (‘bikasi’ in Nepali) or not developed (‘abikasit’
in Nepali) prevails as a fundamental distinction between
urban and rural populations, and between those who are
‘modern’ and those who are not. This frustration is further
compounded by an unstable and unproductive govern-
ment which has, as of this writing, re-formed 26 times
since the democratic revolution in 1990, each new itera-
tion bringing in a new roster of ministers and visions to...”
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“...to inspect the legitimating principles
guiding hydropower construction in Nepal. As the 2015
earthquake reminds us, it appears the ‘techniques of calcu-
lability...have far exceeded the organizations and tools for
its management, hence opening a new distance between
expert and popular understandings of risk (Appadurai
2011: 528). The ethos of hydropower professionals working
in Nepal, those who play and shape the game, perpetuates
a process that is ‘simultaneously discursive, technical,
institutional, and ideological’ (ibid: 526), by which they
attempt to push uncertainty out of the picture, albeit not
entirely successfully.
Appearances and Spectacular Accumulation
Socially organized denial has a specific context and tem-
porality in which it emerges to influence public thinking
about earthquakes, hydropower, and risk. But there is
more going on here than simple denial. At this particular
historical moment, as Nepal searches for development and
electricity, it is not enough that the hydro...”
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“...through calculation. But the seismic risk to
a potential hydropower site simply cannot be calculated.
What we are actually talking about, then, is uncertainty.
As Appadurai (2011: 524) reminds us, “uncertainty remains
outside of all financial devices and models.”
The denial of uncertainty serves an important purpose
in maintaining the promise of Nepal as a future ‘hydro-
power nation’ (Lord 2014). As with many other financial
devices, it helps to obscure the fact that those who make
a living with the financialization of risk are seldom those
who have to live with the uncertainties produced by its
ramifications. In the case of hydropower development in
Nepal, the affected communities have always already been
among the most vulnerable: predominantly peasants who
subsistence-farm in geologically highly unstable moun-
tains. Many of these families are indigenous, and already
contend with institutionalized forms of discrimination that
inhibit their ability to provide for themselves.
22 HIMALAYA Fall2017...”
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“...Nepalese hydropower frontier remains to be seen.
In line with Boholm’s proposition, we are convinced that
we will need more anthropological research to address
this question.
Christopher Butler (PhD, sociology, University of California,
Santa Cruz, 2016) is an independent scholar living in
Kathmandu, Nepal.
Matthaus Rest (PhD, ethnology, University of Zurich,
2014) is an anthropologist. After visiting positions at the
University of Oxford, the Nepa School of Social Sciences
and Humanities in Kathmandu and UCLA, he currently splits
his time between the University of Munich and his family's
farm in rural Austria. He is writing a book on the suspension
of the Arun-3dam in North Eastern Nepal. Apart from unbuilt
infrastructures, he likes to think about the future of global
milk production and the Krampus.
The authors thank Sienna Craig, Mark Turin, and two anonymous
reviewers for their valuable comments on this article. Research
was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, the
Humer...”
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