Citation
How healthy is China

Material Information

Title:
How healthy is China
Series Title:
China Institute China Debate
Alternate Title:
China Institute China Debate, 2015
Creator:
Hum, Christopher, 1946-
Hilton, Isabel ( contributor )
Sunn, Beverly L. W. ( contributor )
Walder, Andrew G., (Andrew George), 1953- ( contributor )
Affiliation:
SOAS University of London -- China Institute
Place of Publication:
London
Publisher:
SOAS University of London
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
亚洲 -- 中国
亞洲 -- 中國
Europe -- United Kingdom -- England -- Greater London -- London -- Bloomsbury
Spatial Coverage:
Asia -- China
Coordinates:
35 x 103
51.52205 x -0.129

Notes

Abstract:
Food security, energy supply, environmental sustainability and rising inequality - these intertwined issues play a crucial role in the ongoing health, or otherwise, of any nation. In China, the world’s most populous country, and one that has experienced the most complex and dynamic economic growth of the last two millennia, such issues are played out on a massive scale against a complex cultural and historical background, with national and global effect. -- At our second annual China Debate, senior-level experts from different sectors will explore the question ‘How healthy is China?’ and offer their personal and professional insights into China’s economic, political, cultural and environmental health. ( en )
General Note:
Biographical Information: The SOAS China Institute houses the largest community of China scholars in Europe, with over 50 academics, and is host to the oldest professorship of Chinese in the UK. It harnesses this deep expertise to create a space where dialogue is always welcomed, where global business, NGO and government leaders, media and world-class scholars from across the world rub shoulders, argue, share knowledge and build understanding.
General Note:
Recorded on 29 June 2015 at an event sponsored by the SOAS China Institute - the 2nd Annual SOAS China Institute China Debate
General Note:
VIAF (name authority) : Hilton, Isabel : URI http://viaf.org/viaf/92244278
General Note:
VIAF (name authority) : Walder, Andrew G., (Andrew George), 1953- : URI http://viaf.org/viaf/34586075

Record Information

Source Institution:
SOAS University of London
Holding Location:
SOAS University of London
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.

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Full Text
How healthy is China?
China Institute China Debate
SOAS, University of London

Published on 6 Jul 2015
This 2nd Annual SOAS China Institute China Debate titled "How healthy is China?" was held at SOAS, University of London on 29 June 2015.

Food security, energy supply, environmental sustainability and rising inequality these intertwined issues play a crucial role in the ongoing health, or otherwise, of any nation. In China, the worlds most populous country, and one that has experienced the most complex and dynamic economic growth of the last two millennia, such issues are played out on a massive scale against a complex cultural and historical background, with national and global effect.

The SOAS China Institute houses the largest community of China scholars in Europe, with over 50 academics, and is host to the oldest professorship of Chinese in the UK. It harnesses this deep expertise to create a space where dialogue is always welcomed, where global business, NGO and government leaders, media and world-class scholars from across the world rub shoulders, argue, share knowledge and build understanding.

At our second annual China Debate, senior-level experts from different sectors will explore the question How healthy is China? and offer their personal and professional insights into Chinas economic, political, cultural and environmental health.

Panelists
The panel followed a Question Time format, and audience members were asked to come with thought-provoking questions for our panellists:
Sir Christopher Hum KCMG Gonville and Caius College Cambridge, British Ambassador to China 2002-2005 : Moderator
Ms Isabel Hilton OBE CEO and Editor of chinadialogue
Ms Beverly LW Sunn Founder & President, Asia Pacific Properties Mobility Limited
Professor Andrew G. Walder Stanford University

Category : Education
Licence : Creative Commons Attribution licence (reuse allowed)

Transcript
This transcript is the product of a machine process and may contain errors.

0:18 you
0:27 stainless guests esteemed colleagues yes
0:32 to welcome to the China Tibet
0:36 my name's Michelle hooks and I'm the
0:39 director of the psoas Chinese the way
0:44 I've been homie over torture workshop
0:47 client adapt to different weight or
0:52 shoulder the National officially Andrew
0:54 Poje to invent a party she'll books
0:56 confirming sit out for my ship salmiya
1:00 what I wanted under India South China
1:08 Institute represents Europe's largest
1:10 community of China scholars yes we do
1:14 speak Chinese we teach and study child
1:18 across a wider range of disciplines and
1:20 in greater complexity than any other
1:23 institution were also very focused so a
1:28 stallion Street also harbors an explicit
1:30 intention to promote dialogue about
1:32 China between those who work in academia
1:35 in business in government and NGOs and
1:40 in the media and your China debate
1:44 epitomizes this year's debate will
1:48 devote itself to dialogue about the
1:51 social economic environmental and
1:54 cultural health education it's my
1:58 distinct pleasure to introduce you to
2:02 the moderator
2:04 debate Sir Christopher Hum. Sir
2:08 Christopher has an extremely
2:09 distinguished career British diplomatic
2:11 service culminating holding the coast of
2:14 commodities ambassador to time he also
2:17 recently served this master of God wanna
2:20 keys college at the University is
2:23 mischief observer an analyst in Chinese
2:25 affairs and I'm delighted to say is
2:28 currently registered as fast as a
2:30 student now hand over Sir Christopher
2:33 will introduce the other panelists
2:35 formats tonight's event please join me
2:46 usual attention we're leaving a shorter
2:49 line i will switch back to english to
2:53 say thank you very much for that so
2:54 introduction it is correct right now a
2:58 graduate student in service it wasn't
3:00 here I would be revising for next week's
3:02 exam on Southeast Asian art but then he
3:07 was straight into the introduction of
3:10 very distinguished set on my left I have
3:16 a very soon evan is one of the first
3:19 American female entrepreneurs to
3:22 establish a real estate and relocation
3:25 firm in East Asia first Hong Kong and
3:29 then she expanded into China in 1995
3:33 she's based in Hong Kong but travels all
3:38 time in mainland China secondly we have
3:43 professor Andrew Walter he has a chair
3:48 School of Humanities and Sciences at
3:50 Stanford is a member of the department
3:53 of sociology and also husband Institute
3:57 of International Studies his previously
4:00 told her to Columbia Harvard and Hong
4:03 Kong
4:04 do science and technology he's written
4:07 extensively on China at his latest book
4:10 which has come out this year is China
4:13 under Mao a revolution derailed and then
4:19 garland on my far left we have is about
4:22 hilton she's based in london a writer
4:25 broadcaster she has reported from around
4:29 the globe she is the founder and editor
4:32 of china dialogue which many of you know
4:35 has a bilingual what would you call it
4:39 web-based magazine dealing with
4:42 environmental issues very affluent she
4:46 has room for BBC radio television and
4:49 for a number of the press written media
4:53 as well now if i can just explain how
4:58 the evening is going to run first I need
5:02 to ask each of the panelists to give a
5:05 short presentation on our topic how
5:07 healthy is China as you heard they come
5:11 from different places in the world of
5:13 backgrounds that's of course is the
5:16 point of bringing them to bear on this
5:19 subject which could be interpreted in a
5:21 lot of different ways
5:22 political economic social environment
5:26 they'll then be a short period of
5:28 discussion between the panelists I
5:30 invited comments on points raised by
5:34 fellows in there additional
5:36 presentations I then put final part of
5:40 the session that will read some
5:42 questions to be answered members of the
5:46 audience might not sure whether the
5:48 world are we at present have been
5:50 invited to put in questions in advance
5:53 we have chosen some excellent questions
5:55 I've invited you audience members who
5:57 are here to pose that question and they
6:00 will be answered by so let us begin and
6:05 I will talk to Beverly to make the first
6:07 presentation thank you all for the other
6:11 thing here it was in nineteen eighty-two
6:14 years after dating shelf hang took the
6:17 monumental serve to open chata stores
6:19 who West that I just stepped into China
6:22 crowds of blue uniforms would walk up to
6:26 industry to stare at me because I more
6:29 colorful up and said look like I had
6:31 come from
6:33 today of course everything looks as
6:35 though they've walked out of that each
6:36 album or boat magazine and I came from
6:40 85 by founded in relocation real estate
6:42 company in Hong Kong who continued my
6:44 travels to china and in the early
6:47 nineties i establish a presence there in
6:49 shahi then grew to break Jane Lynch
6:52 guangzhou with project in over 20 cities
6:56 across china when my first employee off
7:00 to me what my vision was in China I told
7:04 them that it was simply to provide
7:06 services with integrity to Western
7:09 multinationals into when they work with
7:12 Chinese companies who would want the
7:14 same type of value-added services and
7:18 here we are today I think we would all
7:21 agree that China has enormous potential
7:24 to continue to modernize yet is facing
7:26 major challenges in considering the
7:29 health of China their main possible
7:31 metrics by which to measure your horses
7:33 China's health economic growth education
7:38 food safety environmental concerns
7:41 political freedoms corruption the list
7:44 goes on these forces are complex highly
7:47 interdependent
7:49 difficult to aggregate to come up with
7:51 an overall assessment my opinion and
7:54 rather than discuss these specific
7:56 metrics overlap with mice view though it
7:59 has qualified views of economics and
8:03 politics I'd like to take a different
8:05 approach instead having been in greater
8:09 china for over 30 years i will give a
8:11 humanistic perspective of the health of
8:13 china after all china is comprised of
8:18 each of its 1.4 billion individuals
8:24 understanding how healthy chinese
8:26 individuals are is another way to
8:29 understand how filthy chinese as a
8:31 country especially in such a highly
8:34 productive society so how do you assess
8:38 how healthy are China's people one way
8:41 of capturing the overall thing that
8:44 these many economic and social forces
8:46 have a Chinese people is to look at what
8:49 is important to the people of China what
8:53 do people care about what needs are they
8:56 trying to satisfy a good framework to
8:59 analyze this question is one your wife
9:01 can be familiar with Maslow's hierarchy
9:03 of needs it describes the priority of a
9:08 person's needs the foundation is the
9:11 basis human need food water Bevacqua 1
9:17 thess attain one can afford to move up a
9:19 level and focus on safety
9:22 javad shelter environment employment
9:26 financial security health then comes the
9:30 long relationships family friends the
9:34 fourth is esteem gaining the respect of
9:37 others material goods social stature and
9:40 once all of these are achieved one can
9:43 focus on self top actualization a higher
9:47 purpose be that religion community
9:50 service for improving Society Maslow's
9:53 hierarchy as a way to assess the health
9:55 of a person in the grander sense of word
9:59 similarly the health of the country can
10:02 be inward like turning what is most
10:04 important to it and its people survival
10:07 a higher purpose with something in
10:10 between or similar
10:12 the Chinese higher it differs somewhat
10:14 from Laszlo's China's strong collective
10:19 culture and values with ninety percent
10:21 ninety-two percent of the people need
10:24 Han Chinese one ethnicity one culture
10:29 our based on deep relationships you all
10:33 know that what she is one medal to be
10:37 Chinese culture and it is the family in
10:42 China relationships are not the third
10:44 level with a parent but are part of
10:46 survival one of the basis of human
10:49 beings that is the basis not through so
10:53 for today's discussion the Chinese
10:55 pyramid has four levels not five so
10:59 where is China on this modified pyramid
11:01 of what is most important to people the
11:03 dramatic shift from an agrarian society
11:06 to the China today is more than simply
11:08 the massive wealth creation that has
11:11 occurred people have moved quickly be on
11:14 the bottom tiers of hierarchy survival
11:17 would say be directed to esteem and this
11:20 has been mostly obviously manifested and
11:24 materialism as the simplest way to gain
11:26 self esteem and social status the rise
11:28 of the Chinese consumer and focus on
11:32 ludford brands and displays of wealth
11:34 no it's only natural and part of the
11:38 illusion these material displays
11:43 represent the first time people have
11:46 moved above the bottom tiers of the
11:48 hierarchy and generations but a growing
11:52 number of China's youth and leaders are
11:54 already moving past the desire for
11:56 worldly goods and our focus on broader
11:59 societal hood a better environment a
12:02 support system for the underprivileged
12:04 the agent their parents the eradication
12:08 of corruption people are increasingly
12:11 spending their money on enriching their
12:13 lives not my purchase a plus for goods
12:15 but by exploring their own country and
12:18 the world a hundred million Chinese
12:21 tourists travel globally in 2014 why to
12:26 experience and understand the cultures
12:28 their art their music their architecture
12:31 how they do business how the society
12:34 functions foods that they enjoy and and
12:38 as they do they bring that intangible
12:41 souvenirs both solemnly and at the conch
12:46 little batteries their travel shape
12:51 their perception of the world and that
12:53 is what is important to them my business
12:56 is in corporate workforce mobility and
12:59 we have been increasingly working with
13:01 Chinese multinationals who are sending
13:03 people across the ball these beyond
13:05 executives are excited more often than
13:09 not it's not because they see the
13:11 International assignment is a means to
13:13 their career and income but they're
13:16 excited about the exposure and about
13:19 bringing home best practices to further
13:21 not only their career but their
13:23 companies but also their country their
13:27 focus on how they're learning can
13:28 benefit China's future this is their
13:32 self actualization their way of
13:34 improving Society and they are already
13:37 in the upper tier of this pyramid I'm
13:40 not saying that everyone in China's yet
13:42 at the top of Maslow's hierarchy there
13:44 is a way to phone but overall the people
13:48 of China have very much moving into the
13:50 top two reps esteem and higher purpose
13:54 that is help
13:57 but just as with a medical assessment
14:00 the absolute death threats are only part
14:02 of the story no one if your patient is
14:05 improving or on the decline completely
14:08 changes your prognosis so let's look at
14:10 the trend the trends i mentioned earlier
14:13 global truck focus on improving Society
14:16 these are all continuing to grow I
14:18 mentioned 100 million Chinese tours in
14:21 2014 this year only predicted to be at
14:25 140 million I increasingly see this in
14:29 my daily life and in my work every word
14:32 I turn and I meet young people and these
14:35 are people who are 35 years in power my
14:38 work and who are excited about the
14:41 future that are also recently focused on
14:44 integrity on learning and contributing
14:46 to their society fundamentally what
14:49 inspires me about China is the
14:51 tremendous sense of openness and
14:54 interest in the world optimism and dry
14:56 that I see in the every generation you
14:59 see this red mist in social media Weibo
15:02 Reverend QQ and others social media is
15:06 exploding and has enabled Chinese youth
15:09 to congregate and express what is
15:11 important to them what they value and
15:14 it's not the discussion board about the
15:16 latest car the trendiest fashions for
15:19 the latest celebrity news it's about the
15:23 environment food safety high standards
15:26 of Education and improving the social
15:29 good it's about integrity and doing the
15:31 right thing for their family for their
15:33 friends for their country it's about
15:35 their supply of purpose they are
15:38 increasing
15:38 we at the top of this pyramid because
15:40 they can afford to be there in
15:43 conclusion and rapid pace a population
15:46 of nearly 1.4 billion on his women from
15:49 the devastation of the Cultural
15:51 Revolution to being the second largest
15:53 economy and soon to be worse it has done
15:58 so through a tremendous vision
16:00 orchestration and leadership of the
16:02 government and drive of its people rules
16:05 laws directives can all be there but
16:09 unless you have a billion individual
16:12 human spirits pro-actively embracing
16:15 change making sacrifices seizing
16:19 opportunities collectively in other
16:21 words without shared values of what
16:24 people feel is important this daunting
16:27 growth could not have occurred China's
16:31 people are keenly focused on Chinese
16:33 challenges precisely because they can
16:35 afford to care about grab for
16:37 sustainable issues beyond their own
16:38 survival or they're in the medical
16:41 social status in other words because the
16:44 country is a healthy advantage
16:46 has been in decades and perhaps a
16:48 history they are collectively assembly
16:51 and as well as higher needs and are
16:53 transformed the country into responsible
16:55 global contributor so if you ask me how
17:00 healthy is China I believe that although
17:03 China still faced with many challenges
17:05 it is arguably healthy and constantly
17:09 focused on becoming healthier and
17:11 whatever people may be in mount those
17:14 hierarchy as individuals they are said
17:28 every thank you very much I think
17:30 there's some very holistic point said
17:33 that we may come back to know if he was
17:37 3 so 2 okay I checked the world bank
17:42 website this morning and last year it
17:45 appears that China pulled even with the
17:47 United States as the world's largest
17:49 economy which is quite a milestone both
17:52 economies are roughly 16 trillion
17:55 dollars per year purchasing power parity
17:58 turns China's economy has grown 16 times
18:02 sighs since 1980 like to reflect on this
18:07 landmark and what beats America's Amin
18:10 and what it says about how far China is
18:13 common but the
18:15 I'd like to start by calling up a very
18:18 wise Chinese economist was quoted about
18:22 this number last year as it appeared
18:24 that China was about ready to become the
18:27 world's largest economy these are the
18:29 foreigners take every number about China
18:32 and multiply it by 1.3 billion said in
18:36 China and take every number and we
18:38 divide it by 1.3 good and in that spirit
18:41 I'd like to talk about what this plan
18:44 work means for how far China has gone
18:46 when the future problems that it may
18:50 face china's gdp per capita in saying
18:54 purchasing power parity terms is 11,000
18:57 both eleven thousand eight hundred
18:58 dollars last year that's 10 times the
19:02 number as a level measure of the level
19:04 of development such as the size of the
19:05 economy that's 10 sup 10 times the
19:08 size of the economy in 1990 it's double
19:11 indian china
19:14 you begin the reform and opening process
19:17 in 1980 and roughly the same however
19:21 this this ranks China 63rd out of some
19:24 130 countries world it's at the bottom
19:28 of the middle income Nestle of the world
19:32 economies you start to enter the upper
19:35 in commercial element around thirty
19:36 thousand dollars per year there are 17
19:41 countries that are of 40,000
19:46 income so in terms of level of
19:50 development to miss this surprisingly
19:52 when I look through the website a couple
19:54 of days ago what countries does China
19:57 right with now in terms of its level
19:59 developed these countries would include
20:02 South Africa Serbia Peru Jordan the
20:07 Dominican Republic and Colombian the
20:10 level of development of countries in the
20:13 middle income bracket like Mexico in
20:16 Brazil are still fifty percent higher in
20:18 terms of per capita income than China
20:22 now we all know everybody has been
20:25 noticing that China's growth is slow
20:27 it's been ten percent a year roughly for
20:29 several decades it slowed to about seven
20:32 percent or less now real Bank
20:36 projections and many economist project
20:38 that within 10 years will be done to
20:40 four percent maybe
20:42 so the question is will China be hitting
20:47 a plateau with a level off and will it
20:50 be caught in what is often talked about
20:52 the middle income trap trying to which
20:56 will be at about the level of Mexico
20:59 Brazil or will China China's rise
21:02 continue and goal on the path of
21:05 countries like South Korea which was the
21:07 last country to move into the upper
21:09 income potential or even earlier Japan
21:12 and of course China's meters have the
21:15 aspiration and Chinese people have the
21:16 aspiration to continue moving on this
21:19 over attract and not be traveling this
21:21 building Covenant I'd like to argue that
21:24 that right now the prospects look
21:28 somewhat worried if you look very
21:29 closely at some of the social figures of
21:33 about inequality about wages size of
21:38 their force and I'd like to just briefly
21:39 discuss five things that are challenges
21:44 first of all wages in china
21:47 manufacturing in particular are rising
21:49 rapidly the labor force is shrinking at
21:52 the same time you have growth slowing
21:55 secondly you have a rapidly aging
21:57 population in a country that's still at
22:00 a relatively low level of economic
22:02 development third China has very high
22:06 levels of income
22:08 and it's levels of income inequality
22:10 unusual for countries outside of Latin
22:13 America and some Zaire Africa fourthly
22:17 there are problems in the educational
22:20 system especially basic level education
22:21 in rural China which will affect the
22:25 labor force in the future its ability to
22:27 move up into higher value chain of
22:30 production and finally china has a
22:33 rather pronounced version of crony
22:35 capitalism which decades ago was modeled
22:39 after it was inspired by the Japanese
22:42 corporate economy which as we all know
22:44 has really hit the wall over the last 15
22:48 years for reasons I'll talk about
22:49 briefly now one of the prospects for
22:53 China moving ahead since nineteen sixty
22:56 only twelve countries have moved from
22:57 the middle income to high income status
23:00 others all the others have stagnated at
23:03 the middle-income all the countries that
23:06 have made it out of the middle income
23:08 trap have had moderate levels of income
23:10 inequality so the Gini index which
23:12 everyone talks about China's was up in
23:16 the low 30s 132
23:19 teen 80s the higher this number the more
23:22 unequal in economy is now all of the
23:25 countries that made it out of the
23:28 building contract had had genie indices
23:34 below point for all of the failed cases
23:38 were above 0 point for between point for
23:41 and 145 China's current income
23:45 inequality measure is point 53 which is
23:48 really very high much higher than all of
23:50 these countries that have failed
23:52 actually to move on education China's
23:56 population broader population not the
23:59 students who know the best universities
24:00 that we tend to see all the time we're
24:03 very very talented and very well
24:04 educated but the average level of
24:07 education of the overall labor force is
24:11 low and it is not likely soon China's
24:18 Ministry of Education planes that fifty
24:21 percent of labor force has some high
24:23 school education ministry of education
24:26 figures are based on governments at each
24:29 level that report to the upper levels
24:31 many students they have in school for
24:32 which they get subsidies in the budget
24:35 census takers who go to households can
24:38 ask families how many people in the home
24:41 have at least some high school education
24:43 the numbers not fifteen percent is 24
24:47 China's Ministry of Education their
24:50 fingers say that the high school
24:52 eighty-three percent of high school age
24:55 population are in high school presently
25:00 but the census data said fifty three
25:02 percent these figures are lower than
25:05 those countries that have become stuck
25:07 at the middle income level lower
25:09 considerably lower than countries like
25:11 Brazil Mexico enter now I said earlier
25:16 why will this while these numbers not
25:18 improve well it's fairly simple public
25:21 education in China is not free in fact
25:25 it's fairly expensive especially in
25:27 rural areas it turns out that was quite
25:30 surprised to find this that China's
25:32 rural high school education tuition and
25:36 fees are the highest in the world five
25:38 times higher than the next most
25:40 expensive country which is Indonesian
25:44 now what this means for China's economy
25:47 is the following one reason for poor
25:51 high school enrollments is the high
25:53 demand for labor and the high wages that
25:55 I mentioned earlier my presentation
25:57 wages and manufacturing jobs are really
25:59 quite high
26:00 faster than the rate of the gamma growth
26:03 in China there's an estimated one point
26:05 three times for each worker in the
26:08 manufacturing settle this is why wages
26:11 have risen faster than the growth of the
26:12 economy and I thought for many years
26:16 that this would never be a problem for
26:17 Chum because that being simply that the
26:19 processing coastal regions and move into
26:23 the interior to Sichuan down soon I
26:26 places turns out however I've learned
26:29 that the labor market nationwide is a
26:34 single labor market wages of the same
26:36 throughout the country in the interior
26:37 and the coast and the workers who are
26:40 willing to work that moved migrated to
26:42 the coastal areas are ready for very
26:45 long period of time so this means that
26:48 you have you also have an aging
26:51 population means that this labor force
26:53 is shrinking in this trend will continue
26:55 about roughly 2 million workers leave
26:59 the labor force every year in China over
27:02 the past 34 years in this number will
27:04 accelerate as the population ages more
27:08 quickly in the next decade or two this
27:12 obviously will threaten the model the
27:15 economic model that was so successful in
27:18 last 10 years this export-led growth I
27:22 will affect foreign exchange reserves
27:26 trade surpluses foreign firms untold
27:30 already are starting to
27:32 their operations outside of China to
27:34 other regions told that Samsung has been
27:37 moving its operations to Vietnam this
27:39 very large operations to be an AMA over
27:41 the last five years I don't claim being
27:44 from the University in Silicon Valley I
27:45 don't claim any special knowledge but
27:48 I'm tall that Apple is looking to
27:50 relocate its operations to another
27:52 country and opera is there seriously
27:55 considering Indonesia in other words the
27:57 exit of these these export oriented
28:00 manufacturing firms has already begun is
28:02 to accelerate and this is by China's
28:05 leadership most observers are saying
28:07 that China has moved to a different
28:09 change gears and different models of
28:12 economic development now I'll briefly
28:14 mention obviously the budgetary
28:16 implications of fiscal implications of a
28:18 rapidly aging population which leads to
28:22 a smaller ratio of people who are
28:24 employed people who are retired this is
28:27 happening at the same time the program
28:28 is already slowing and because of the
28:31 one-child policy that was enforced so
28:34 rigorously for decades China's
28:37 population is aging very quickly and it
28:40 will be a country metal at the lower
28:42 level of middle-income
28:44 with an aging population it will be
28:46 actually older than the United States
28:49 ovulation within 10 years finally is the
28:54 big question I think probably the
28:55 fundamental systemic questions all these
28:57 things that we've been talking about our
29:00 women available by policy tomography is
29:04 baked in the size of the labor force
29:05 these are not things that any government
29:07 can really easily respond to in the
29:10 short run but the big question really is
29:13 about what I've called this what's
29:15 called the Beijing model or it's really
29:18 a form of crony capitalism approximately
29:21 thirty percent of corporate assets are
29:23 still in the state sector many of these
29:26 are large national champions they look
29:30 very large very impressive especially in
29:32 the world rankings of lard lard the
29:35 world's largest corporations and forms
29:37 of Fortune magazine's many of these
29:39 however are actually former planning
29:41 former industrial bureaus
29:45 command economy days have been
29:47 structured and reorganized and merged
29:49 now these firms don't really operate in
29:52 the same way as firms and other more
29:56 market-oriented economies they have a
29:59 monopoly or oligopoly position in the
30:01 domestic market they are protected
30:05 mostly from foreign competition from
30:08 their being given bank financing from
30:11 state banks at preferential rates and
30:14 when they can't pay these loans tend to
30:16 be rolled over and ultimately when
30:18 they're not repaid the state banking
30:20 system has to be recapitalised there are
30:23 very high rates currently of corporate
30:25 debt due to the investment-led stimulus
30:29 package was really trying to come
30:33 avoided economic downturn after 2008
30:38 these firms are in many ways too big to
30:40 fail there's a lot of national prestige
30:42 vested in them but they're going to have
30:45 to be restructured or partially
30:47 privatized or be forced to face
30:51 market-based competition and of course
30:53 this is something that China's leaders
30:54 know and it's in the economic reform
30:57 plan that they
30:59 published last year now this is an
31:03 economy i said earlier it was inspired
31:05 by the the japanese model of the 1970s
31:08 and 1980s and i remember how everyone
31:11 was worried that Japan was going to take
31:13 over the world back in the 1980s but
31:16 eventually the protectionism the crony
31:19 capitalism led to stagnation in Japan
31:22 and we all never worried I think China's
31:24 leaders are aware of this and they're
31:26 very illegal ways to avoid this kind of
31:29 thing so very quickly I think my time is
31:32 up but i'd like to say very quickly a
31:35 postscript on corruption in the
31:38 anti-corruption campaign you can
31:40 tolerate a great deal of corruption with
31:42 ten percent and new growth the current
31:45 campaign against about corruption is
31:46 highly popular in china it's long
31:49 delayed and i think we all agree that
31:52 it's something that's badly needed but
31:55 the problem of reason why eruption is a
31:59 problem the problem at Xi Jinping of
32:01 other leaders see as one of the greatest
32:04 threats to the future of the of the
32:06 party in china stability is baked into
32:09 the organization of the political system
32:10 which deeply penetrates the organization
32:13 of the corporate economy and it's very
32:15 difficult as a private entrepreneur and
32:17 all to do well without these good
32:19 relationships with the local government
32:22 and government officials so in other
32:24 words to that the task awesome it's easy
32:27 to understand what needs to be done this
32:29 is a politically difficult task to
32:31 restructure a large economy that large
32:35 corporate economy and what really
32:38 will stay the government's hand is that
32:40 any changes that you begin to introduce
32:42 will threaten to lower in the short-run
32:44 growth rates even more and this is a
32:47 party that really a season high growth
32:51 rates as a central disability so in many
32:54 ways they're a bit abstract dealing with
32:57 it so I think
33:08 thank you very much thank you very much
33:13 mr. burned thanks to Michelle into so
33:16 ask this kind invitation I think it's a
33:19 very interesting moment to be talking
33:22 about the health of China we've been on
33:24 a whole rather positive about China for
33:26 30 years very impressed with tiny
33:29 miracle rate rose the kind of economic
33:32 and figures that Henry was quoting but I
33:35 think the best at the moment when we
33:37 reached a point when world futures of
33:39 that love with China. China is now such a
33:41 weight the world that what about China
33:44 inescapably effects I hear more and more
33:49 anxieties the state of China here
33:52 anxieties in Washington and hurt
33:55 feelings in Washington we used to hear
33:57 in vogue feelings in China there were a
33:59 lot of that humans in the United States
34:00 at the moment and about China's recent
34:03 here in the great anxieties about about
34:10 the strategic anxieties about China's
34:13 rise and what sort of
34:15 proved to be international world not not
34:19 helped by the South and East China Sea
34:22 and behaviors which I think have been
34:26 thought to be disappointing but also the
34:29 fear of the internal pressures created
34:31 by the sort of nationalism of grievance
34:33 which has been cultivated since 1989 as
34:37 as the major national narrative a
34:40 dangerous choice and it's a self-created
34:43 trap if you like from China's leadership
34:45 and the seesaw nature of China's foreign
34:49 policy remains confusing to many your
34:54 service and justice we're getting used
34:57 to the idea that the Chinese economy
34:59 would power long and be the motor of
35:02 global growth as wasted economies
35:04 spluttered after the great financial
35:07 crisis the Chinese economy is slowing
35:09 it's aiming at seven percent most
35:11 observers think it's around 4.15 at
35:14 present and for many of the reasons
35:16 again that Andrew mentioned it's not
35:17 likely to pick up very powerfully in my
35:21 view just at the moment when China's
35:24 trying to access it to to execute this
35:26 this very important strategic shift from
35:28 the old model T the low added value hi
35:32 investment export-led high blue tomorrow
35:36 the two moving up the value chain and
35:38 all those things and relying more on on
35:41 domestic consumption that's the exports
35:44 and domestic consumption is growing but
35:47 again for reasons of demography it's
35:49 hard to see that being as powerful
35:51 motors that needs to be invested is
35:53 ensuring substantially and debt is a
35:56 very heavy burden domestic consumption
36:00 if you look at an aging population and
36:02 you look at the the one-child policy and
36:04 the impacts of that where you have a
36:06 younger generation might be expected to
36:09 to spend more a being responsible for
36:12 aging parents and grandparents they're
36:15 not going to have as much spare cash in
36:18 the larger population outside of
36:20 relatively privileged circles I think
36:25 that the moment that China has reached
36:27 is this strategic economic and pivot if
36:31 you like China has set itself some
36:33 really excellent objec- the 12th
36:36 five-year plan if you're looking at the
36:38 health of China fine with China's GP and
36:41 I saw this patient arrived I looking at
36:43 somebody who is getting on a bit and
36:45 hadn't really lived very well in the
36:48 last
36:48 a few years have really missed me to the
36:51 doctor's advice so if you look at the
36:53 systems that support health in the
36:57 ecological sense or mental sense never
36:59 the health of its population and the
37:01 health of the economy I would say it's
37:04 looking pretty ropey rather like someone
37:07 who in their late 50s decides to go to
37:09 the gym they should have gone there 20
37:12 years earlier China is now trying to
37:14 execute a very creditable shift to a
37:17 more sustainable model to be on the 12th
37:20 planet and we'll continue the 13th plan
37:22 the problem is that justice again do not
37:26 labor this poor patient not refer to
37:28 death but but if you give up smoking in
37:30 your 60s it's not nearly as good as
37:32 giving up in your 30s on although you'll
37:35 feel better you still have a lot of
37:37 damage and China is in that condition
37:39 now China is trying to move to a more
37:42 sustainable economy after 30 years of
37:47 taking the view that Brandon grooves
37:49 were counted that you'll get rich and
37:52 then we'll clean up and now China in
37:56 addition to all the other challenges it
37:58 faces is facing the very very heavy
38:00 consequences of a very wasteful
38:05 ng model now every industrial economy
38:09 did this the brick started the united
38:12 states did germany did it we all
38:14 polluted first with the idea that we
38:17 would clean up later the problem china
38:19 has is that it started off with much
38:22 much less headroom than anybody else
38:24 accusing china has ruffled same surface
38:26 areas the United States bolonia fraction
38:28 of the usable land and five times the
38:31 population if you look at any measure
38:33 any index of environmental every we like
38:37 China starts off gravely disadvantage
38:40 that's bad luck but that is the reality
38:42 so China starts off for instance with a
38:46 very very low allocation of fresh water
38:49 we don't think of China Saudi Arabia but
38:52 North China it has about the same
38:55 allocation fresh water and this this
39:00 poor allocation is exacerbated by uneven
39:03 distributions that you love sometimes
39:05 too much water under the
39:07 and not nearly enough north of the axle
39:09 and if you add on to that the fact that
39:14 the rest of China's surface water and a
39:17 great deal of its underground water has
39:20 been heavily polluted through very poor
39:23 governance through you know the
39:25 get-rich-quick approach of they both
39:27 chemical industry amongst others through
39:30 the fact that all the twenty percent of
39:32 the fresh water is taken up by by coal
39:35 by the mining and processing and general
39:39 use of coal and by the fact that North
39:43 China has been drawing down its reserves
39:46 in compensating for for its lack of
39:52 water by over drawing water from rivers
39:54 by over drawing from underground
39:57 aquifers the water table under bridge in
39:59 for instance has brought by some 80
40:02 meters and all over the North China
40:03 Plain you see indentations of exhausted
40:07 aquifers and 17,000
40:10 disappear completely Chinese geography
40:14 survey in the last 20 years you can see
40:19 that that at least in terms of a patient
40:22 who exposed to live a long time
40:24 something quite drastic has to happen
40:27 and there is a huge economic risk built
40:30 into this North China has forty percent
40:33 of the of the Chinese economy the assets
40:37 at risk in agriculture or about three
40:40 trillion a year is more than 40 trillion
40:43 in terms of industrial economy of China
40:46 and none of this confunkshun water
40:50 powering China water and energy are
40:53 intimately connected decisions every
40:55 energy decision is also important
40:57 decision and that is the Chinese running
41:01 out of room to make energy decisions
41:05 freely now China has that there is a
41:09 sort of definition of foolish behavior
41:13 which is to keep addressing the same
41:16 problem with the same solution and
41:17 hoping the world next time China's
41:20 approach to its water problem has been
41:23 substantially an engineering one time
41:26 it's booked more dams entry
41:29 tree it continues to blow down 6
41:31 currently building downs in one of the
41:33 world's most active earthquake zones on
41:35 transfer agreements what is probably and
41:39 through all this engineering some of
41:41 them quite heroic engineering the water
41:44 situation in China has got steadily
41:46 worse so engineering is not lead to
41:49 fixing the most recent case of Miss
41:51 applied engineering is the south-north
41:53 auto transfer project a multi-million
41:56 dollar project to move really inadequate
42:00 amounts of rather dirty water fit a high
42:02 energy costs from sunshine and North
42:04 China it's not going to fix north
42:06 china's water problem and upon a cost
42:08 per meter basis it would be cheaper to
42:11 disseminate so curiousity an appropriate
42:15 decisions continue to be made and i
42:17 think one of the reasons that they
42:18 continue to be made is that although we
42:21 have so we do see a tremendous awareness
42:24 at this point when we started trying to
42:26 dial up to now nine years ago
42:29 environmental problems really we're at
42:31 the margin of public discussion there
42:34 was the beginning of civil society
42:37 and so very talented and active
42:40 individuals but in general terms the
42:43 priority is still very rapid GDP growth
42:47 today environmental concerns are a
42:50 matter of regime survival we know about
42:53 evolution because cause the regime to
42:56 take quite serious metals water
43:00 pollution the water scarcity or also
43:03 existential threats of Chinese economy
43:06 we don't hear so much about soil
43:08 pollution but that's an equally severe
43:11 and extremely intractable problem which
43:14 is currently a state secret the extent
43:16 of it assisting secret is more
43:18 intractable because it's very expensive
43:20 and difficult to fix so cleaning up soil
43:23 and then remediating him so that it is
43:25 of some use is very very difficult now
43:29 all these issues have come together and
43:33 certainly the government has responded
43:35 to 1200
43:37 it's a beautiful sustainability it will
43:40 take a long time with to turn the
43:42 economy around and be one of the bills
43:44 for past behavior will have to be met in
43:48 some form and what are these bills well
43:51 they are the cost of remediation you
43:53 know the cost of treating the water both
43:55 of them discharging delta-neutral they
43:58 are the costs of of making an energy
44:00 transition which allows you to clean up
44:02 the air and they are the health impacts
44:05 on the Chinese population which are
44:08 equally severe and air pollution is not
44:11 just a billion unpleasantly causes lung
44:14 cancer and China's lung cancer rates
44:16 have gone our illness as fast as the
44:19 economy if you look at the growth we
44:22 don't hear quite so much about other
44:23 forms of counsel counsel villages entire
44:26 communities struck by the the effects of
44:30 chinese industrial revolution but they
44:33 are also severe and those girls will
44:35 have to be met so there is a toxic
44:38 legacy of the race to industrialize and
44:41 although it is fixable it is it is a
44:44 burn on the present
44:47 generations just to cheer you up
44:49 completely there's been climate change
44:52 China is very vulnerable to the impacts
44:55 of climate change because most of its
44:57 development its advanced development is
44:59 on low-lying coastal cities so sea level
45:03 rise monsoon variability nothing places
45:06 and they never there are extremely
45:10 serious I can see you getting anxious so
45:16 the news the good news is and that
45:19 client accepting a kind of course in
45:21 China China for many reasons is I think
45:25 going to surprise a lot of people when
45:27 its pilot palace is published and and
45:30 comparison why do I say because China is
45:34 at the same time as suffering all these
45:35 problems the biggest producer of solar
45:37 panels wind technology it has a very
45:41 large installed capacity for renewable
45:45 energies and it has a promise to peep
45:48 its emissions by 2030 probably couldn't
45:51 do it by 2022 might do it by 2025 and
45:54 emissions will then that begins
45:57 this is a very positive contribution of
45:59 China is going to make nobody is doing
46:03 enough but so I think the Copenhagen
46:07 situation or which times
46:09 break down the drawers is not likely to
46:12 be to be repeated in Paris so
46:25 well thank you very much I think we've
46:27 had three very of rich contributing so
46:31 there are many different lines of
46:33 discussion which eat out what I'd like
46:35 to suggest since we're going to have to
46:37 compress out of the bird is that I try
46:41 to extract out of those presentations
46:44 really just two questions I'd like to
46:47 put those out and that will give all
46:49 three of you an opportunity briefly
46:52 means to accommodate anything and
46:54 grinning like out of what your fellow
46:57 panelists have said one of them is I was
47:01 very struck by what Beverly had to say
47:03 about censored openness and and
47:06 curiosity which he encounters on the
47:08 part of young people the question in my
47:12 mind is is that sense of openness and
47:15 curiosity shared by the party shared by
47:20 the government facilitated by the
47:23 government in the way which is really
47:25 going to make China other
47:29 his awesome away and the other question
47:33 is on anto question of reform but there
47:36 is no paper has as I'm from said some
47:39 very ambitious plans some very
47:42 impressive looking plans that the third
47:44 cleaner and java laid out anything very
47:49 interesting settled without proposed
47:52 means but is there a will to put those
47:57 proposals into effect of the vested
48:00 interests going to be through come all
48:04 those reforms really effectively going
48:06 to be carried out to the way which will
48:08 make Chinese economic health as lusty
48:12 that unique so who like to comment on
48:16 other of the news that second
48:24 yeah it was just on the question of
48:27 whether whether the curiosity in the
48:30 open mindedness of the young is shared
48:32 by both government I think that I may be
48:35 five six years ago who said yes today I
48:40 I would certainly say I think that we've
48:43 seen increasingly concerns expressed
48:47 that the most senior levels of
48:49 government above about Western ideas and
48:52 how dangerous questing ideas not which I
48:55 described as dangerous to China actually
48:57 they're dangerous perhaps or seen as
48:59 dangerous to regime survival we see an
49:02 increasingly heavy hand and center ship
49:04 and increasingly having hadn't given
49:06 free flow of information we see an
49:09 increasing arrest on all sorts of
49:13 charges of people who are thinking
49:15 people who are who have set up think
49:18 tanks and people who are putting forward
49:20 ideas about future governance in all
49:24 sorts of ways so I think that that is
49:27 electrically trend I I would like to
49:31 propose that obviously in China is a
49:34 very very large country what seemingly
49:38 maybe censorship which there is and
49:41 there has been I think a
49:46 not even rewriting text and limiting
49:52 information that turns through the
49:55 country by the same token china is
50:00 allowing people to leave it allows
50:05 thoughtful process the concern is at
50:11 what speed so I think there's a little
50:14 conflict there and respecto of not and
50:18 cutting back reverting entrenching I
50:22 would like to think that they're looking
50:25 to slow down the process with innovation
50:28 and technology and all the strengths and
50:33 the ills of thing for hit grades there
50:35 is great concern that it goes to rapidly
50:38 let me give you an example in fact what
50:42 if I my colleagues was on a flight from
50:45 Shanghai to Guam terms that I callate as
50:48 it turns out there was a rumor in
50:50 Guangzhou that we're I don't know if
50:56 you're aware of it and syndrome because
50:57 of the minority group China looks in
51:00 what
51:02 equal-opportunity physician to to take
51:07 the league of people to different parts
51:09 of the country so that they might
51:10 participate to the economic growth of
51:15 the country and a rumor was spread that
51:19 six weigert had attacked a young woman
51:24 in Guangzhou and that led to cell phones
51:28 all the way back to Lucci that led to
51:31 riots were 200 people were killed the
51:36 unfortunate thing about this was that
51:38 this was only a war so those are real
51:42 concerns in terms of growth to quickly
51:45 communication too quickly and it's
51:47 coming and China will invest in it but
51:51 their needs perhaps to be a certain
51:56 temporary in terms of speed all the
52:00 squirrels
52:05 I was listening to myself talk I thought
52:08 this is
52:09 the pessimistic pessimistic talk I'd
52:13 like to actually pick up on something
52:15 that Beverly said about the openness and
52:17 curiosity I've also been struck by that
52:20 I when I analyzed the issues facing
52:26 China intend to go heavy on the problems
52:31 make very clear what the huge challenges
52:34 are but this is especially true when I'm
52:37 in the United States sitting my desk and
52:39 then I go to China and of course that
52:42 meet many Chinese people also the
52:43 university but I meet people I mean
52:45 basic level officials in China I mean
52:48 academics when I go to bed and talk to
52:53 county level officials I get the sense
52:57 of I mean very intelligent hard-working
53:00 honest people I don't actually see the
53:03 corruption that people talk about I've
53:06 never been shaken down by a traffic cop
53:08 for anything like that when I read books
53:11 about Cambodia or Russia constantly and
53:16 I almost adopt this kind of proud
53:19 feeling as a student of China that
53:21 China's from government much better than
53:23 these countries
53:25 you know this is most of my work in
53:27 recent years has been about China and
53:28 1960s and even in that period china the
53:32 chinese communist party is a very well
53:34 organized entity so there's an
53:38 irrational part of me that wants to
53:40 believe that somehow somehow the people
53:45 of China will be able to so that's my
53:49 that's mine
53:52 more happy face sounded like a pretty
53:56 blue presentations thank you very much
53:59 now I think we'll sit with it selected
54:01 with the questions which I have and
54:04 choose ones which again has a new handle
54:07 to our discussion is Henry Devereaux
54:12 would you like to bathroom but I feel
54:15 like that you do you do I can ask your
54:18 best friend now do you see
54:32 do you see any any likely the chinese
54:35 club willing to spend something like ten
54:38 percent of gdp on health embezzle on the
54:42 population say a decade from now taking
54:47 aging products okay westerbeke spiritual
54:52 health care as welfare as well have you
54:56 don't stop I can see China being very
55:00 concerned about the welfare of its
55:02 people The Enquirer the crackdown on
55:06 corruption I would think that the
55:08 medical industry is one that it brings a
55:11 great person to China and as the
55:14 populace bros and you have the
55:16 middle-income center the people now
55:19 become far expressing the need for
55:23 better medical care or to look at as
55:27 well as the country having an age of
55:30 population China will have to commit to
55:35 developing a larger mammals
55:39 Ford's people may be fact that you
55:41 believe that it is on their agenda
55:43 important ones together with food safety
55:46 together the pollution champine this
55:50 year has committed to 27 billion dollars
55:55 to work on pollution to clear up the
55:58 rivers to investigate how they might
56:02 improve the air quality to look up your
56:06 toxic waste in the area through
56:08 factories within the Shanghai are a 27
56:11 million not committed of four in five or
56:14 ten or twenty year period it's a
56:17 three-year commitment that that point
56:18 will be spent
56:24 I exam to read and health spending was
56:28 going off over a year I think though
56:33 that there are there are a number of
56:35 large social costs which you're going to
56:38 have to be met over the next few years
56:40 and one of 11 remains and going back to
56:43 the questions of inequality who is going
56:46 to fund the social rights of the of the
56:50 rule who quarters these are migrant
56:53 workers and I believe my co-workers who
56:55 moved to the cities but and don't have
56:57 social rights in their cities they don't
56:58 have the right fletchinder go to school
57:00 they don't have access to health any
57:04 kind of social safety net there is a
57:07 general acceptance that this is
57:09 monstrously unfair and it's causing all
57:11 kinds of additional social problems like
57:13 left-behind children children World War
57:15 and Indian villages in some cases to the
57:19 grandparents in some cases without it
57:22 was a terrible case recently suicide of
57:25 five young children in that situation of
57:28 course a lot of anxiety
57:30 the problem is who's going to fund it so
57:33 the cities where these people moved are
57:37 many of them in debt they don't have the
57:41 right disco ball in another local
57:43 property tax to support their
57:45 expenditure they have to give too much
57:47 the government they don't get no back so
57:49 there's a fight going on right now Oh
57:51 social spending pretty much in all
57:53 sectors in China and it's about where
57:56 the responsibility will finally devolved
57:58 and I think until that is resolved it's
58:01 going to be very hard to know in 10
58:03 years time huggles purporting to pan out
58:06 certainly there's a strong sense that
58:09 it's required but quite welcome
58:17 send you now is country Mac yes
58:25 given China's political system heavily
58:30 influences its economy does that mean
58:33 that its economic policy fundamentally
58:37 different to that of Western Europe and
58:40 North America and if that's the case
58:43 then what's the implication for many
58:46 theorists of trying to analyze come
58:49 healthy challenge I think opium
58:55 partially dress that move my comments by
58:58 saying that in many respects Chinese
59:00 corporate article corporates system
59:03 resembles the Japanese statement
59:07 coordination between ministries they
59:11 have banking system in large
59:12 corporations another way which China is
59:16 actually different from Japan and
59:18 Western economies is that there are
59:22 strict capital controls and the banking
59:25 system most completely stayed up
59:29 what this means is that you're on a bike
59:31 legacy until a financial crisis of the
59:34 kind that we experienced in the United
59:36 States and spread throughout the world
59:39 2007-2008 because the government has
59:43 needs to recapitalize the banks mean
59:47 to bail out in fact they do this more or
59:50 less comical basis so it's not going to
59:53 be as volatile a kind of economy as you
59:57 might expect
60:00 businesses result there as we saw
60:04 2007-2008
60:07 so I guess okay I think we're going to
60:16 go straight to your questions quite
60:18 refunds is an adult male audience if not
60:23 how we turn miss you to what extent is
60:27 China's at risk of a property stroke
60:30 construction industry bubble bursting at
60:34 what can the government do to deal with
60:36 this is quite aware of the bubble burst
60:44 with real estate the oversupply the cost
60:47 of real estate having sword as it has
60:50 they have now looked to temper
60:53 construction temper building on the new
60:59 developments and in fact him shinta
61:01 strategy for expansion building railways
61:07 building infrastructure to a while China
61:10 to get to Pakistan the Silk Road and so
61:14 that it might go work through Pullman in
61:17 to create a distribution center for
61:20 Europe and building railroads through
61:26 Siberia up through Canada down to the US
61:30 with the concept of outreach expansion
61:34 program for their goods and vice versa
61:39 the real estate yes there is an
61:43 oversupply but my belief is that whilst
61:47 the economy may go down to five percent
61:51 you still have a thriving economy I
61:55 believe in the US for it correctly in my
61:59 realm 1.3 and that's an optimistic
62:06 perspective so in balance don't I think
62:12 we need to look little bit more globally
62:14 when we look at at these issues look it
62:17 up other countries in how they aren't
62:19 there so I'm not as pessimistic about
62:23 the outcome of China because again I do
62:27 feel that you have a younger generation
62:30 people filled with hope who are willing
62:32 to still make sacrifice they're willing
62:35 to see the roof and the collective
62:38 there's a very different concept in
62:41 terms of how they are a popular country
62:45 mobilize its
62:46 it's not even 30 years the natural world
62:49 perhaps 20 move this quickly unless you
62:54 have
62:55 the type of willpower an ability to make
63:00 sacrifice and to happen so I I do feel
63:07 that I'm one more optimistic might say
63:13 because if I look at the water sugar it
63:16 is a global problem I've spoken to water
63:21 consultants and his concern is
63:24 California more so than China because
63:27 China doesn't have the old
63:29 infrastructure it will have the ability
63:32 to create innovation to find new
63:36 methodologies it doesn't have to leave
63:40 go over old and restructuring with the
63:44 new technology new innovation China
63:47 probably
63:48 an opportunity to bring new resources
63:52 for itself others honor
63:58 as finalists driving Duke Williams is
64:05 not with us but he asked to what extent
64:09 would democratization of China as he
64:12 voted into environmental improvements
64:15 Western democracies do not have an
64:18 exemplary record of fossil fuels and
64:21 carbon emissions is it ours yeah I am
64:26 which are entirely accept the premise of
64:29 the question all democracies are the
64:31 same with all non democracies the same
64:33 it doesn't really stand much examination
64:36 so if President for instance European
64:40 Union countries are pretty much on
64:41 target for meeting at Quixote topics
64:43 including Britain Britain is meeting its
64:45 clear two targets cuz mrs. able to close
64:47 down the coal industry and wait for gas
64:49 entirely different reasons but
64:51 nevertheless dalida climate Olivia that
64:55 kind of bonus on the other hand Canada
64:58 program
65:00 I'm not doing too well Australia is not
65:02 doing too well an India finds it very
65:05 hard to make any decision at all but
65:08 exemplary democracies like like Sweden
65:11 and Denmark or aiming to be a hundred
65:12 percent fossil fuel free in the next
65:14 couple of decades so I think you you
65:17 know that the show the starting point
65:19 that that you know democracies are
65:21 performing worse I think it's not
65:23 necessarily true on whether
65:27 democratization i think i think we
65:29 always try to look at the possibility of
65:31 reform in China through probably the
65:33 wrong lens because we seem to be looking
65:36 for a ballot box behind every behind
65:38 every under every table it's not going
65:41 to happen but but China's system which
65:44 is more like responsive authoritarianism
65:47 is certainly concerned with public
65:49 opinion and it is concerned with the
65:51 future and that is it to make decisions
65:54 which are going to be more
65:57 environmentally friendly and certainly
65:58 as I said in my remarks in terms of
66:01 climate policy China sees a strategic
66:03 opportunity and quite rightly for its
66:07 for new technologies I think environment
66:11 rather than climate and these are not
66:14 same thing and the difficulty I think
66:17 that China faces in terms of
66:19 this environment is one of governance if
66:23 you look at industrial societies that
66:25 dick clean up they did so with the
66:27 benefit of a robust civil society a
66:30 robust legal system so religious could
66:33 be taken to court by well-funded NGOs a
66:38 freedom of information and a free press
66:40 transparency accountability all those
66:42 good things which make for governance
66:45 what we haven't China's a lot of very
66:47 good laws very very poorly applied now
66:50 there is some silent in the 13th plan
66:53 and a great deal of thought has gone
66:55 into this and so we will see reforms of
66:59 a governance system which could well
67:00 affect an improvement one for instance
67:03 is to make officials responsible over
67:07 their lifetime could be for the
67:09 decisions and the consequences of
67:10 decisions that they make rather a good
67:13 idea I think we should do that that
67:15 means you can't just you know wreck
67:17 Italian move on and say in 20 years time
67:19 oh I can't even remember it was that it
67:22 will follow you and it will affect your
67:24 promotion prospects in that will make
67:26 behavior much more responsible today so
67:28 that's a good example of thinking about
67:31 how within a top-down system you do get
67:34 better governance and other quirks and I
67:38 still think that the kind of
67:41 restrictions that are coming
67:43 are not going to help you need to engage
67:47 the population in this kind of thing
67:49 can't do it alone as a government and I
67:52 think that Chinese handicapping itself
67:54 in that state bye-bye not in pari its
67:59 people
68:05 although hand back to show
68:12 so the question we have asked as divided
68:15 opinion and China as a subject of study
68:18 divides it is very tempting to spend
68:23 most of your time talking to them
68:25 sitting in a room with people of the
68:27 same in not reach out and talk to people
68:32 come from different perspectives and
68:34 physically but we've been trying to get
68:37 there but we continue to the next year
68:40 near Earth year after is to bring them
68:43 together will hold a perspective one to
68:46 enter into conversation and what half
68:48 the time and I've gotten delighted the
68:52 wonderful example set by a panel I would
68:56 like all of you to ask
69:11 you
69:22 you




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How healthy is China? China Institute China Debate SOAS, University of London Published on 6 Jul 201 5 This 2nd Annual SOAS China Institute China Debate titled "How healthy is China?" was held at SOAS, University of London on 29 June 2015. Food security, energy supply, environmental sustainability and rising inequality these intertwined issues play a crucial role in the ongoing health, or otherwise, of any nation. In and one that has experienced the most complex and dynamic economic growth of the last two millennia, such issues are played out on a massive scale against a complex cultural and historical background, with national and global effect. The SOAS China Inst itute houses the largest community of China scholars in Europe, with over 50 academics, and is host to the oldest professorship of Chinese in the UK. It harnesses this deep expertise to create a space where dialogue is always welcomed, where global busines s, NGO and government leaders, media and world class scholars from across the world rub shoulders, argue, share knowledge and build understanding. At our second annual China Debate, senior level experts from different sectors will explore the economic, political, cultural and environmental health. Panelists The panel followed a Question Time format, and audience members were asked to come with thought p rovoking questions for our panellists: Sir Christopher Hum KCMG Gonville and Caius College Cambridge, British Ambassador to China 2002 2005 : Moderator Ms Isabel Hilton OBE CEO and Editor of chinadialogue Ms Beverly LW Sunn Founder & Presiden t, Asia Pacific Properties Mobility Limited Professor Andrew G. Walder Stanford University Category : Education Licence : Creative Commons Attribution licence (reuse allowed) Transcript This transcript is the product of a machine process and may contain errors. 0:18 ........... you 0:2 7 ........... stainless guests esteemed colleagues yes 0:3 2 ........... to welcome to the China Tibet 0:3 6 ........... my name's Michelle hooks and I'm the 0:3 9 ........... director of the psoas Chinese the way 0:4 4 ........... I've been homie over torture wor kshop 0:4 7 ........... client adapt to different weight or 0:5 2 ........... shoulder the National officially Andrew 0:5 4 ........... Poje to invent a party she'll books 0:5 6 ........... confirming sit out for my ship salmiya 1:0 0 ........... what I wanted under India South China 1:0 8 ........... Institute represent s Europe's largest

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1:1 0 ........... community of China scholars yes we do 1:1 4 ........... speak Chinese we teach and study child 1:1 8 ........... across a wider range of disciplines and 1:2 0 ........... in greater complexity than any other 1:2 3 ........... institution were also very focused so a 1:2 8 ........... s tallion Street also harbors an explicit 1:3 0 ........... intention to promote dialogue about 1:3 2 ........... China between those who work in academia 1:3 5 ........... in business in government and NGOs and 1:4 0 ........... in the media and your China debate 1:4 4 ........... epitomizes this year's debate will 1:4 8 ........... devote itself to dialogue about the 1:5 1 ........... social economic environmental and 1:5 4 ........... cultural health education it's my 1:5 8 ........... distinct pleasure to introduce you to 2:0 2 ........... the moderator 2:0 4 ........... debate Sir Christopher Hum. S ir 2:0 8 ........... Christopher has an extremely 2:0 9 ........... distinguished career British diplomatic 2:1 1 ........... service culminating holding the coast of 2:1 4 ........... commodities ambassador to time he also 2:1 7 ........... recently served this master of God wanna 2:2 0 ........... keys college at the University is 2:2 3 ........... mischi ef observer an analyst in Chinese 2:2 5 ........... affairs and I'm delighted to say is 2:2 8 ........... currently registered as fast as a 2:3 0 ........... student now hand over Sir Christopher 2:3 3 ........... will introduce the other panelists 2:3 5 ........... formats tonight's event please join me 2:4 6 ........... usual attention we're leaving a shorter 2:4 9 ........... line i will switch back to english to 2:5 3 ........... say thank you very much for that so 2:5 4 ........... introduction it is correct right now a 2:5 8 ........... graduate student in service it wasn't 3:0 0 ........... here I would be revising for next week's 3:0 2 ........... exam on Southeast Asian art but then he 3:0 7 ........... was straight into the introduction of 3:1 0 ........... very distinguished set on my left I have 3:1 6 ........... a very soon evan is one of the first 3:1 9 ........... American female entrepreneurs to 3:2 2 ........... establish a real estate and relocation 3:2 5 ........... firm in East Asia first Hong Kong and 3:2 9 ........... then she expanded into China in 199 5 3:3 3 ........... she's based in Hong Kong but travels all 3:3 8 ........... time in mainland China secondly we have 3:4 3 ........... professor Andrew Walter he has a chair 3:4 8 ........... School of Humanities and Sciences at 3:5 0 ........... Stanford is a member of the department 3:5 3 ........... of sociology and also husband Institute 3:5 7 ........... of International Studies his previously 4:0 0 ........... told her to Columbia Harvard and Hong 4:0 3 ........... Kong 4:0 4 ........... do scie nce and technology he's written 4:0 7 ........... extensively on China at his latest book 4:1 0 ........... which has come out this year is China

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4:1 3 ........... under Mao a revolution derailed and then 4:1 9 ........... garland on my far left we have is about 4:2 2 ........... hilton she's based in london a writer 4:2 5 ........... broadcaster she has reported from around 4:2 9 ........... the globe she is the founder and editor 4:3 2 ........... of china dialogue which many of you know 4:3 5 ........... has a bilingual what would you call it 4:3 9 ........... web based magazine dealing with 4:4 2 ........... environmental issues very affluent she 4:4 6 ........... has room for BBC radio television and 4:4 9 ........... for a number of the press written media 4:5 3 ........... as well now if i can just explain how 4:5 8 ........... the evening is going to run first I need 5:0 2 ........... to ask each of the panelists to give a 5:0 5 ........... short presentation on our topic how 5:0 7 ........... healthy is China as you heard they come 5:1 1 ........... from different places in the world of 5:1 3 ........... backgrounds that's of course is the 5:1 6 ........... point of bringing them to bear on this 5:1 9 ........... subject which could be i nterpreted in a 5:2 1 ........... lot of different ways 5:2 2 ........... political economic social environment 5:2 6 ........... they'll then be a short period of 5:2 8 ........... discussion between the panelists I 5:3 0 ........... invited comments on points raised by 5:3 4 ........... fellows in there additional 5:3 6 ........... presentations I then put final part of 5:4 0 ........... the session that will read some 5:4 2 ........... questions to be answered members of the 5:4 6 ........... audience might not sure whether the 5:4 8 ........... world are we at present have been 5:5 0 ........... invited to put in questions in advanc e 5:5 3 ........... we have chosen some excellent questions 5:5 5 ........... I've invited you audience members who 5:5 7 ........... are here to pose that question and they 6:0 0 ........... will be answered by so let us begin and 6:0 5 ........... I will talk to Beverly to make the first 6:0 7 ........... presentation thank you all for the other 6:1 1 ........... thing here it was in nineteen eighty two 6:1 4 ........... years after dating shelf hang took the 6:1 7 ........... monumental serve to open chata stores 6:1 9 ........... who West that I just stepped into China 6:2 2 ........... crowds of blue uniforms would walk up to 6:2 6 ........... industry to stare at me because I more 6:2 9 ........... colorful up and said look like I had 6:3 1 ........... come from 6:3 3 ........... today of course everything looks as 6:3 5 ........... though they've walked out of that each 6:3 6 ........... album or boat magazine and I came from 6:4 0 ........... 8 5 by founded in relocation real estate 6:4 2 ........... company in Hong Kong who continued my 6:4 4 ........... travels to china and in the early 6:4 7 ........... nineties i establish a presence there in 6:4 9 ........... shahi then grew to break Jane Lynch 6:5 2 ........... guangzhou with project in over 20 cities

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6:5 6 ........... across china when my first employee off 7:0 0 ........... to me what my vision was in China I told 7:0 4 ........... them that it was simply to provide 7:0 6 ........... services with integrity to Western 7:0 9 ........... multinationals into when they work with 7:1 2 ........... Chinese compani es who would want the 7:1 4 ........... same type of value added services and 7:1 8 ........... here we are today I think we would all 7:2 1 ........... agree that China has enormous potential 7:2 4 ........... to continue to modernize yet is facing 7:2 6 ........... major challenges in considering the 7:2 9 ........... health of China their main possible 7:3 1 ........... metrics by which to measure your horses 7:3 3 ........... China's health economic growth education 7:3 8 ........... food safety environmental concerns 7:4 1 ........... political freedoms corruption the list 7:4 4 ........... goes on these forces are compl ex highly 7:4 7 ........... interdependent 7:4 9 ........... difficult to aggregate to come up with 7:5 1 ........... an overall assessment my opinion and 7:5 4 ........... rather than discuss these specific 7:5 6 ........... metrics overlap with mice view though it 7:5 9 ........... has qualified views of economics and 8:0 3 ........... politics I'd like to take a different 8:0 5 ........... approach instead having been in greater 8:0 9 ........... china for over 30 years i will give a 8:1 1 ........... humanistic perspective of the health of 8:1 3 ........... china after all china is comprised of 8:1 8 ........... each of its 1.4 bill ion individuals 8:2 4 ........... understanding how healthy chinese 8:2 6 ........... individuals are is another way to 8:2 9 ........... understand how filthy chinese as a 8:3 1 ........... country especially in such a highly 8:3 4 ........... productive society so how do you assess 8:3 8 ........... how healthy are Chi na's people one way 8:4 1 ........... of capturing the overall thing that 8:4 4 ........... these many economic and social forces 8:4 6 ........... have a Chinese people is to look at what 8:4 9 ........... is important to the people of China what 8:5 3 ........... do people care about what needs are they 8:5 6 ........... trying to satisfy a good framework to 8:5 9 ........... analyze this question is one your wife 9:0 1 ........... can be familiar with Maslow's hierarchy 9:0 3 ........... of needs it describes the priority of a 9:0 8 ........... person's needs the foundation is the 9:1 1 ........... basis human need food wa ter Bevacqua 1 9:1 7 ........... thess attain one can afford to move up a 9:1 9 ........... level and focus on safety 9:2 2 ........... javad shelter environment employment 9:2 6 ........... financial security health then comes the 9:3 0 ........... long relationships family friends the 9:3 4 ........... fourth is esteem gaining the respect of 9:3 7 ........... others material goods social stature and 9:4 0 ........... once all of these are achieved one can 9:4 3 ........... focus on self top actualization a higher

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9:4 7 ........... purpose be that religion community 9:5 0 ........... service for improving Society Maslow's 9 :5 3 ........... hierarchy as a way to assess the health 9:5 5 ........... of a person in the grander sense of word 9:5 9 ........... similarly the health of the country can 10:0 2 ......... be inward like turning what is most 10:0 4 ......... important to it and its people survival 10:0 7 ......... a higher purpose with something in 10:1 0 ......... between or similar 10:1 2 ......... the Chinese higher it differs somewhat 10:1 4 ......... from Laszlo's China's strong collective 10:1 9 ......... culture and values with ninety percent 10:2 1 ......... ninety two percent of the people need 10:2 4 ......... Han Chinese on e ethnicity one culture 10:2 9 ......... our based on deep relationships you all 10:3 3 ......... know that what she is one medal to be 10:3 7 ......... Chinese culture and it is the family in 10:4 2 ......... China relationships are not the third 10:4 4 ......... level with a parent but are part of 10:4 6 ......... survival one of the basis of human 10:4 9 ......... beings that is the basis not through so 10:5 3 ......... for today's discussion the Chinese 10:5 5 ......... pyramid has four levels not five so 10:5 9 ......... where is China on this modified pyramid 11:0 1 ......... of what is most import ant to people the 11:0 3 ......... dramatic shift from an agrarian society 11:0 6 ......... to the China today is more than simply 11:0 8 ......... the massive wealth creation that has 11:1 1 ......... occurred people have moved quickly be on 11:1 4 ......... the bottom tiers of hierarchy survival 1 1:1 7 ......... would say be directed to esteem and this 11:2 0 ......... has been mostly obviously manifested and 11:2 4 ......... materialism as the simplest way to gain 11:2 6 ......... self esteem and social status the rise 11:2 8 ......... of the Chinese consumer and focus on 11:3 2 ......... ludford bran ds and displays of wealth 11:3 4 ......... no it's only natural and part of the 11:3 8 ......... illusion these material displays 11:4 3 ......... represent the first time people have 11:4 6 ......... moved above the bottom tiers of the 11:4 8 ......... hierarchy and generations but a growing 11:52 ......... number of China's youth and leaders are 11:5 4 ......... already moving past the desire for 11:5 6 ......... worldly goods and our focus on broader 11:5 9 ......... societal hood a better environment a 12:0 2 ......... support system for the underprivileged 12:0 4 ......... the agent their parents t he eradication 12:0 8 ......... of corruption people are increasingly 12:1 1 ......... spending their money on enriching their 12:1 3 ......... lives not my purchase a plus for goods 12:1 5 ......... but by exploring their own country and 12:1 8 ......... the world a hundred million Chinese 12:2 1 ......... t ourists travel globally in 2014 why to 12:2 6 ......... experience and understand the cultures 12:2 8 ......... their art their music their architecture

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12:3 1 ......... how they do business how the society 12:3 4 ......... functions foods that they enjoy and and 12:3 8 ......... as they do they brin g that intangible 12:4 1 ......... souvenirs both solemnly and at the conch 12:4 6 ......... little batteries their travel shape 12:5 1 ......... their perception of the world and that 12:5 3 ......... is what is important to them my business 12:5 6 ......... is in corporate workforce mobility and 1 2:5 9 ......... we have been increasingly working with 13:0 1 ......... Chinese multinationals who are sending 13:0 3 ......... people across the ball these beyond 13:0 5 ......... executives are excited more often than 13:0 9 ......... not it's not because they see the 13:1 1 ......... International assignmen t is a means to 13:1 3 ......... their career and income but they're 13:1 6 ......... excited about the exposure and about 13:1 9 ......... bringing home best practices to further 13:2 1 ......... not only their career but their 13:2 3 ......... companies but also their country their 13:2 7 ......... focus on how they're learning can 13:2 8 ......... benefit China's future this is their 13:3 2 ......... self actualization their way of 13:3 4 ......... improving Society and they are already 13:3 7 ......... in the upper tier of this pyramid I'm 13:4 0 ......... not saying that everyone in China's yet 13: 4 2 ......... at the top of Maslow's hierarchy there 13:4 4 ......... is a way to phone but overall the people 13:4 8 ......... of China have very much moving into the 13:5 0 ......... top two reps esteem and higher purpose 13:5 4 ......... that is help 13:5 7 ......... but just as with a medical assessment 1 4:0 0 ......... the absolute death threats are only part 14:0 2 ......... of the story no one if your patient is 14:0 5 ......... improving or on the decline completely 14:0 8 ......... changes your prognosis so let's look at 14:1 0 ......... the trend the trends i mentioned earlier 14:1 3 ......... global tru ck focus on improving Society 14:1 6 ......... these are all continuing to grow I 14:1 8 ......... mentioned 100 million Chinese tours in 14:2 1 ......... 2014 this year only predicted to be at 14:2 5 ......... 140 million I increasingly see this in 14:2 9 ......... my daily life and in my work every word 14:3 2 ......... I turn and I meet young people and these 14:3 5 ......... are people who are 35 years in power my 14:3 8 ......... work and who are excited about the 14:4 1 ......... future that are also recently focused on 14:4 4 ......... integrity on learning and contributing 14:4 6 ......... to the ir society fundamentally what 14:4 9 ......... inspires me about China is the 14:5 1 ......... tremendous sense of openness and 14:5 4 ......... interest in the world optimism and dry 14:5 6 ......... that I see in the every generation you 14:5 9 ......... see this red mist in social media Weibo 15: 0 2 ......... Reverend QQ and others social media is 15:0 6 ......... exploding and has enabled Chinese youth

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15:0 9 ......... to congregate and express what is 15:1 1 ......... important to them what they value and 15:1 4 ......... it's not the discussion board about the 15:1 6 ......... latest car the trendi est fashions for 15:1 9 ......... the latest celebrity news it's about the 15:2 3 ......... environment food safety high standards 15:2 6 ......... of Education and improving the social 15:2 9 ......... good it's about integrity and doing the 15:3 1 ......... right thing for their family for their 1 5:3 3 ......... friends for their country it's about 15:3 5 ......... their supply of purpose they are 15:3 8 ......... increasing 15:3 8 ......... we at the top of this pyramid because 15:4 0 ......... they can afford to be there in 15:4 3 ......... conclusion and rapid pace a population 15:4 6 ......... of nearly 1.4 billion on his women from 15:4 9 ......... the devastation of the Cultural 15:5 1 ......... Revolution to being the second largest 15:5 3 ......... economy and soon to be worse it has done 15:5 8 ......... so through a tremendous vision 16:0 0 ......... orchestration and leadership of the 16:0 2 ......... go vernment and drive of its people rules 16:0 5 ......... laws directives can all be there but 16:0 9 ......... unless you have a billion individual 16:1 2 ......... human spirits pro actively embracing 16:1 5 ......... change making sacrifices seizing 16:1 9 ......... opportunities collectively in oth er 16:2 1 ......... words without shared values of what 16:2 4 ......... people feel is important this daunting 16:2 7 ......... growth could not have occurred China's 16:3 1 ......... people are keenly focused on Chinese 16:3 3 ......... challenges precisely because they can 16:3 5 ......... afford to care a bout grab for 16:3 7 ......... sustainable issues beyond their own 16:3 8 ......... survival or they're in the medical 16:4 1 ......... social status in other words because the 16:4 4 ......... country is a healthy advantage 16:4 6 ......... has been in decades and perhaps a 16:4 8 ......... history they are collectively assembly 16:5 1 ......... and as well as higher needs and are 16:5 3 ......... transformed the country into responsible 16:5 5 ......... global contributor so if you ask me how 17:0 0 ......... healthy is China I believe that although 17:0 3 ......... China still faced with many challeng es 17:0 5 ......... it is arguably healthy and constantly 17:0 9 ......... focused on becoming healthier and 17:1 1 ......... whatever people may be in mount those 17:1 4 ......... hierarchy as individuals they are said 17:2 8 ......... every thank you very much I think 17:3 0 ......... there's some very holi stic point said 17:3 3 ......... that we may come back to know if he was 17:3 7 ......... 3 so 2 okay I checked the world bank 17:4 2 ......... website this morning and last year it 17:4 5 ......... appears that China pulled even with the 17:4 7 ......... United States as the world's largest

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17:4 9 ......... economy which is quite a milestone both 17:5 2 ......... economies are roughly 16 trillion 17:5 5 ......... dollars per year purchasing power parity 17:5 8 ......... turns China's economy has grown 16 times 18:0 2 ......... sighs since 1980 like to reflect on this 18:0 7 ......... landmark and what b eats America's Amin 18:1 0 ......... and what it says about how far China is 18:1 3 ......... common but the 18:1 5 ......... I'd like to start by calling up a very 18:1 8 ......... wise Chinese economist was quoted about 18:2 2 ......... this number last year as it appeared 18:2 4 ......... that China was ab out ready to become the 18:2 7 ......... world's largest economy these are the 18:2 9 ......... foreigners take every number about China 18:3 2 ......... and multiply it by 1.3 billion said in 18:3 6 ......... China and take every number and we 18:3 8 ......... divide it by 1.3 good and in that spiri t 18:4 1 ......... I'd like to talk about what this plan 18:4 4 ......... work means for how far China has gone 18:4 6 ......... when the future problems that it may 18:5 0 ......... face china's gdp per capita in saying 18:5 4 ......... purchasing power parity terms is 11,00 0 18:5 7 ......... both eleven tho usand eight hundred 18:5 8 ......... dollars last year that's 10 times the 19:0 2 ......... number as a level measure of the level 19:0 4 ......... of development such as the size of the 19:0 5 ......... economy that's 10 sup 10 times the 19:0 8 ......... size of the economy in 1990 it's double 19 :1 1 ......... indian china 19:1 4 ......... you begin the reform and opening process 19:1 7 ......... in 1980 and roughly the same however 19:2 1 ......... this this ranks China 63rd out of some 19:2 4 ......... 130 countries world it's at the bottom 19:2 8 ......... of the middle income Nestle of the world 19:3 2 ......... economies you start to enter the upper 19:3 5 ......... in commercial element around thirty 19:3 6 ......... thousand dollars per year there are 1 7 19:4 1 ......... countries that are of 40,00 0 19:4 6 ......... income so in terms of level of 19:5 0 ......... development to miss this surprising ly 19:5 2 ......... when I look through the website a couple 19:5 4 ......... of days ago what countries does China 19:5 7 ......... right with now in terms of its level 19:5 9 ......... developed these countries would include 20:0 2 ......... South Africa Serbia Peru Jordan the 20:0 7 ......... Dominican Rep ublic and Colombian the 20:1 0 ......... level of development of countries in the 20:1 3 ......... middle income bracket like Mexico in 20:1 6 ......... Brazil are still fifty percent higher in 20:1 8 ......... terms of per capita income than China 20:2 2 ......... now we all know everybody has been 20:2 5 ......... noticing that China's growth is slow 20:2 7 ......... it's been ten percent a year roughly for 20:2 9 ......... several decades it slowed to about seven 20:3 2 ......... percent or less now real Bank

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20:3 6 ......... projections and many economist project 20:3 8 ......... that within 10 years will be done to 20:4 0 ......... four percent maybe 20:4 2 ......... so the question is will China be hitting 20:4 7 ......... a plateau with a level off and will it 20:5 0 ......... be caught in what is often talked about 20:5 2 ......... the middle income trap trying to which 20:5 6 ......... will be at ab out the level of Mexico 20:5 9 ......... Brazil or will China China's rise 21:0 2 ......... continue and goal on the path of 21:0 5 ......... countries like South Korea which was the 21:0 7 ......... last country to move into the upper 21:0 9 ......... income potential or even earlier Japan 21:1 2 ......... a nd of course China's meters have the 21:1 5 ......... aspiration and Chinese people have the 21:1 6 ......... aspiration to continue moving on this 21:1 9 ......... over attract and not be traveling this 21:2 1 ......... building Covenant I'd like to argue that 21:2 4 ......... that right now the pro spects look 21:2 8 ......... somewhat worried if you look very 21:2 9 ......... closely at some of the social figures of 21:3 3 ......... about inequality about wages size of 21:3 8 ......... their force and I'd like to just briefly 21:3 9 ......... discuss five things that are challenges 21:4 4 ......... fir st of all wages in china 21:4 7 ......... manufacturing in particular are rising 21:4 9 ......... rapidly the labor force is shrinking at 21:5 2 ......... the same time you have growth slowing 21:5 5 ......... secondly you have a rapidly aging 21:5 7 ......... population in a country that's still at 22:0 0 ......... a relatively low level of economic 22:0 2 ......... development third China has very high 22:0 6 ......... levels of income 22:0 8 ......... and it's levels of income inequality 22:1 0 ......... unusual for countries outside of Latin 22:1 3 ......... America and some Zaire Africa fourthly 22 :1 7 ......... there are problems in the educational 22:2 0 ......... system especially basic level education 22:2 1 ......... in rural China which will affect the 22:2 5 ......... labor force in the future its ability to 22:2 7 ......... move up into higher value chain of 22:3 0 ......... production and final ly china has a 22:3 3 ......... rather pronounced version of crony 22:3 5 ......... capitalism which decades ago was modeled 22:3 9 ......... after it was inspired by the Japanese 22:4 2 ......... corporate economy which as we all know 22:4 4 ......... has really hit the wall over the last 1 5 22:48 ......... years for reasons I'll talk about 22:4 9 ......... briefly now one of the prospects for 22:5 3 ......... China moving ahead since nineteen sixty 22:5 6 ......... only twelve countries have moved from 22:5 7 ......... the middle income to high income status 23:0 0 ......... others all the others have stagnated at 23:0 3 ......... the middle income all the countries that 23:0 6 ......... have made it out of the middle income

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23:0 8 ......... trap have had moderate levels of income 23:1 0 ......... inequality so the Gini index which 23:1 2 ......... everyone talks about China's was up in 23:1 6 ......... t he low 30s 13 2 23:1 9 ......... teen 80s the higher this number the more 23:2 2 ......... unequal in economy is now all of the 23:2 5 ......... countries that made it out of the 23:2 8 ......... building contract had had genie indices 23:3 4 ......... below point for all of the failed cases 23:3 8 ......... w ere above 0 point for between point for 23:4 1 ......... and 145 China's current income 23:4 5 ......... inequality measure is point 53 which is 23:4 8 ......... really very high much higher than all of 23:5 0 ......... these countries that have failed 23:5 2 ......... actually to move on education C hina's 23:5 6 ......... population broader population not the 23:5 9 ......... students who know the best universities 24:0 0 ......... that we tend to see all the time we're 24:0 3 ......... very very talented and very well 24:0 4 ......... educated but the average level of 24:0 7 ......... education of the overall labor force is 24:1 1 ......... low and it is not likely soon China's 24:1 8 ......... Ministry of Education planes that fifty 24:2 1 ......... percent of labor force has some high 24:2 3 ......... school education ministry of education 24:2 6 ......... figures are based on governments at eac h 24:2 9 ......... level that report to the upper levels 24:3 1 ......... many students they have in school for 24:3 2 ......... which they get subsidies in the budget 24:3 5 ......... census takers who go to households can 24:3 8 ......... ask families how many people in the home 24:4 1 ......... have at lea st some high school education 24:4 3 ......... the numbers not fifteen percent is 2 4 24:4 7 ......... China's Ministry of Education their 24:5 0 ......... fingers say that the high school 24:5 2 ......... eighty three percent of high school age 24:5 5 ......... population are in high school presently 25:0 0 ......... but the census data said fifty three 25:0 2 ......... percent these figures are lower than 25:0 5 ......... those countries that have become stuck 25:0 7 ......... at the middle income level lower 25:0 9 ......... considerably lower than countries like 25:1 1 ......... Brazil Mexico enter no w I said earlier 25:1 6 ......... why will this while these numbers not 25:1 8 ......... improve well it's fairly simple public 25:2 1 ......... education in China is not free in fact 25:2 5 ......... it's fairly expensive especially in 25:2 7 ......... rural areas it turns out that was quite 25:30 ......... surprised to find this that China's 25:3 2 ......... rural high school education tuition and 25:3 6 ......... fees are the highest in the world five 25:3 8 ......... times higher than the next most 25:4 0 ......... expensive country which is Indonesian 25:4 4 ......... now what this means for China' s economy 25:4 7 ......... is the following one reason for poor

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25:5 1 ......... high school enrollments is the high 25:5 3 ......... demand for labor and the high wages that 25:5 5 ......... I mentioned earlier my presentation 25:5 7 ......... wages and manufacturing jobs are really 25:5 9 ......... quite hi gh 26:0 0 ......... faster than the rate of the gamma growth 26:0 3 ......... in China there's an estimated one point 26:0 5 ......... three times for each worker in the 26:0 8 ......... manufacturing settle this is why wages 26:1 1 ......... have risen faster than the growth of the 26:1 2 ......... economy a nd I thought for many years 26:1 6 ......... that this would never be a problem for 26:1 7 ......... Chum because that being simply that the 26:1 9 ......... processing coastal regions and move into 26:2 3 ......... the interior to Sichuan down soon I 26:2 6 ......... places turns out however I've le arned 26:2 9 ......... that the labor market nationwide is a 26:3 4 ......... single labor market wages of the same 26:3 6 ......... throughout the country in the interior 26:3 7 ......... and the coast and the workers who are 26:4 0 ......... willing to work that moved migrated to 26:4 2 ......... the coasta l areas are ready for very 26:4 5 ......... long period of time so this means that 26:4 8 ......... you have you also have an aging 26:5 1 ......... population means that this labor force 26:5 3 ......... is shrinking in this trend will continue 26:5 5 ......... about roughly 2 million workers leave 26:5 9 ......... the labor force every year in China over 27:0 2 ......... the past 34 years in this number will 27:0 4 ......... accelerate as the population ages more 27:0 8 ......... quickly in the next decade or two this 27:1 2 ......... obviously will threaten the model the 27:1 5 ......... economic mode l that was so successful in 27:1 8 ......... last 10 years this export led growth I 27:2 2 ......... will affect foreign exchange reserves 27:2 6 ......... trade surpluses foreign firms untold 27:3 0 ......... already are starting to 27:3 2 ......... their operations outside of China to 27:3 4 ......... other regions told that Samsung has been 27:3 7 ......... moving its operations to Vietnam this 27:3 9 ......... very large operations to be an AMA over 27:4 1 ......... the last five years I don't claim being 27:4 4 ......... from the University in Silicon Valley I 27:4 5 ......... don't claim any specia l knowledge but 27:4 8 ......... I'm tall that Apple is looking to 27:5 0 ......... relocate its operations to another 27:5 2 ......... country and opera is there seriously 27:5 5 ......... considering Indonesia in other words the 27:5 7 ......... exit of these these export oriented 28:0 0 ......... manufactu ring firms has already begun is 28:0 2 ......... to accelerate and this is by China's 28:0 5 ......... leadership most observers are saying 28:0 7 ......... that China has moved to a different 28:0 9 ......... change gears and different models of 28:1 2 ......... economic development now I'll briefly

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28:1 4 ......... mention obviously the budgetary 28:1 6 ......... implications of fiscal implications of a 28:1 8 ......... rapidly aging population which leads to 28:2 2 ......... a smaller ratio of people who are 28:2 4 ......... employed people who are retired this is 28:2 7 ......... happening at the sam e time the program 28:2 8 ......... is already slowing and because of the 28:3 1 ......... one child policy that was enforced so 28:3 4 ......... rigorously for decades China's 28:3 7 ......... population is aging very quickly and it 28:4 0 ......... will be a country metal at the lower 28:4 2 ......... level of middle income 28:4 4 ......... with an aging population it will be 28:4 6 ......... actually older than the United States 28:4 9 ......... ovulation within 10 years finally is the 28:5 4 ......... big question I think probably the 28:5 5 ......... fundamental systemic questions all these 28:5 7 ......... things that we've been talking about our 29:0 0 ......... women available by policy tomography is 29:0 4 ......... baked in the size of the labor force 29:0 5 ......... these are not things that any government 29:0 7 ......... can really easily respond to in the 29:1 0 ......... short run but the big question really is 29:1 3 ......... about what I've called this what's 29:1 5 ......... called the Beijing model or it's really 29:1 8 ......... a form of crony capitalism approximately 29:2 1 ......... thirty percent of corporate assets are 29:2 3 ......... still in the state sector many of these 29:2 6 ......... are large national champions they look 29:3 0 ......... very large very impressive especially in 29:3 2 ......... the world rankings of lard lard the 29:3 5 ......... world's largest corporations and forms 29:3 7 ......... of Fortune magazine's many of these 29:3 9 ......... however are actual ly former planning 29:4 1 ......... former industrial bureaus 29:4 5 ......... command economy days have been 29:4 7 ......... structured and reorganized and merged 29:4 9 ......... now these firms don't really operate in 29:5 2 ......... the same way as firms and other more 29:5 6 ......... market oriented e conomies they have a 29:5 9 ......... monopoly or oligopoly position in the 30:0 1 ......... domestic market they are protected 30:0 5 ......... mostly from foreign competition from 30:0 8 ......... their being given bank financing from 30:1 1 ......... state banks at preferential rates and 30:1 4 ......... w hen they can't pay these loans tend to 30:1 6 ......... be rolled over and ultimately when 30:1 8 ......... they're not repaid the state banking 30:2 0 ......... system has to be recapitalised there are 30:2 3 ......... very high rates currently of corporate 30:2 5 ......... debt due to the investmen t led stimulus 30:2 9 ......... package was really trying to come 30:3 3 ......... avoided economic downturn after 200 8 30:3 8 ......... these firms are in many ways too big to 30:4 0 ......... fail there's a lot of national prestige

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30:4 2 ......... vested in them but they're going to have 30:4 5 ......... t o be restructured or partially 30:4 7 ......... privatized or be forced to face 30:5 1 ......... market based competition and of course 30:5 3 ......... this is something that China's leaders 30:5 4 ......... know and it's in the economic reform 30:5 7 ......... plan that they 30:5 9 ......... published last year now this is an 31:0 3 ......... economy i said earlier it was inspired 31:0 5 ......... by the the japanese model of the 1970s 31:0 8 ......... and 1980s and i remember how everyone 31:1 1 ......... was worried that Japan was going to take 31:1 3 ......... over the world back in the 1980s but 3 1:1 6 ......... eventually the protectionism the crony 31:1 9 ......... capitalism led to stagnation in Japan 31:2 2 ......... and we all never worried I think China's 31:2 4 ......... leaders are aware of this and they're 31:2 6 ......... very illegal ways to avoid this kind of 31:2 9 ......... thing so very quickly I think my time is 31:3 2 ......... up but i'd like to say very quickly a 31:3 5 ......... postscript on corruption in the 31:3 8 ......... anti corruption campaign you can 31:4 0 ......... tolerate a great deal of corruption with 31:4 2 ......... ten percent and new growth the current 31:4 5 ......... campaign against about corruption is 31:4 6 ......... highly popular in china it's long 31:4 9 ......... delayed and i think we all agree that 31:5 2 ......... it's something that's badly needed but 31:5 5 ......... the problem of reason why eruption is a 31:5 9 ......... problem the problem at X i J inping of 32:0 1 ......... other leaders see as one of the greatest 32:0 4 ......... threats to the future of the of the 32:0 6 ......... party in china stability is baked into 32:0 9 ......... the organization of the political system 32:1 0 ......... which deeply penetrates the organization 32:13 ......... of the corporate economy and it's very 32:1 5 ......... difficult as a private entrepreneur and 32:1 7 ......... all to do well without these good 32:1 9 ......... relationships with the local government 32:2 2 ......... and government officials so in other 32:2 4 ......... words to that the task aw esome it's easy 32:2 7 ......... to understand what needs to be done this 32:2 9 ......... is a politically difficult task to 32:3 1 ......... restructure a large economy that large 32:3 5 ......... corporate economy and what really 32:3 8 ......... will stay the government's hand is that 32:4 0 ......... any changes that you begin to introduce 32:4 2 ......... will threaten to lower in the short run 32:4 4 ......... growth rates even more and this is a 32:4 7 ......... party that really a season high growth 32:5 1 ......... rates as a central disability so in many 32:5 4 ......... ways they're a bi t abstract dealing with 32:5 7 ......... it so I think 33:0 8 ......... thank you very much thank you very much 33:1 3 ......... mr. burned thanks to M ichelle into so

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33:1 6 ......... ask this kind invitation I think it's a 33:1 9 ......... very interesting moment to be talking 33:2 2 ......... about the heal th of China we've been on 33:2 4 ......... a whole rather positive about China for 33:2 6 ......... 30 years very impressed with tiny 33:2 9 ......... miracle rate rose the kind of economic 33:3 2 ......... and figures that Henry was quoting but I 33:3 5 ......... think the best at the moment when we 33:3 7 ......... reached a point when world futures of 33:3 9 ......... that love with China China is now such a 33:4 1 ......... weight the world that what about China 33:4 4 ......... inescapably effects I hear more and more 33:4 9 ......... anxieties the state of China here 33:5 2 ......... anxieties in W ashington and hurt 33:5 5 ......... feelings in Washington we used to hear 33:5 7 ......... in vogue feelings in China there were a 33:5 9 ......... lot of that humans in the United States 34:0 0 ......... at the moment and about China's recent 34:0 3 ......... here in the great anxieties about about 34:1 0 ......... the strategic anxieties about China's 34:1 3 ......... rise and what sort of 34:1 5 ......... proved to be international world not not 34:1 9 ......... helped by the South and East China Sea 34:2 2 ......... and behaviors which I think have been 34:2 6 ......... thought to be disappointing b ut also the 34:2 9 ......... fear of the internal pressures created 34:3 1 ......... by the sort of nationalism of grievance 34:3 3 ......... which has been cultivated since 1989 as 34:3 7 ......... as the major national narrative a 34:4 0 ......... dangerous choice and it's a self created 34:4 3 ......... tr ap if you like from China's leadership 34:4 5 ......... and the seesaw nature of China's foreign 34:4 9 ......... policy remains confusing to many your 34:5 4 ......... service and justice we're getting used 34:5 7 ......... to the idea that the Chinese economy 34:5 9 ......... would power long and b e the motor of 35:0 2 ......... global growth as wasted economies 35:0 4 ......... spluttered after the great financial 35:0 7 ......... crisis the Chinese economy is slowing 35:0 9 ......... it's aiming at seven percent most 35:1 1 ......... observers think it's around 4.15 at 35:1 4 ......... present and fo r many of the reasons 35:1 6 ......... again that Andrew mentioned it's not 35:1 7 ......... likely to pick up very powerfully in my 35:2 1 ......... view just at the moment when China's 35:2 4 ......... trying to access it to to execute this 35:2 6 ......... this very important strategic shift from 35:2 8 ......... the old model T the low added value hi 35:3 2 ......... investment export led high blue tomorrow 35:3 6 ......... the two moving up the value chain and 35:3 8 ......... all those things and relying more on on 35:4 1 ......... domestic consumption that's the exports 35:4 4 ......... and domest ic consumption is growing but 35:4 7 ......... again for reasons of demography it's 35:4 9 ......... hard to see that being as powerful

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35:5 1 ......... motors that needs to be invested is 35:5 3 ......... ensuring substantially and debt is a 35:5 6 ......... very heavy burden domestic consumption 3 6:0 0 ......... if you look at an aging population and 36:0 2 ......... you look at the the one child policy and 36:0 4 ......... the impacts of that where you have a 36:0 6 ......... younger generation might be expected to 36:0 9 ......... to spend more a being responsible for 36:1 2 ......... aging parents a nd grandparents they're 36:1 5 ......... not going to have as much spare cash in 36:1 8 ......... the larger population outside of 36:2 0 ......... relatively privileged circles I think 36:2 5 ......... that the moment that China has reached 36:2 7 ......... is this strategic economic and pivot if 3 6:3 1 ......... you like China has set itself some 36:3 3 ......... really excellent objec the 12th 36:3 6 ......... five year plan if you're looking at the 36:3 8 ......... health of China fine with China's GP and 36:4 1 ......... I saw this patient arrived I looking at 36:4 3 ......... somebody who is getti ng on a bit and 36:4 5 ......... hadn't really lived very well in the 36:4 8 ......... last 36:4 8 ......... a few years have really missed me to the 36:5 1 ......... doctor's advice so if you look at the 36:5 3 ......... systems that support health in the 36:5 7 ......... ecological sense or mental sense nev er 36:5 9 ......... the health of its population and the 37:0 1 ......... health of the economy I would say it's 37:0 4 ......... looking pretty ropey rather like someone 37:0 7 ......... who in their late 50s decides to go to 37:0 9 ......... the gym they should have gone there 2 0 37:1 2 ......... years earl ier China is now trying to 37:1 4 ......... execute a very creditable shift to a 37:1 7 ......... more sustainable model to be on the 12th 37:2 0 ......... planet and we'll continue the 13th plan 37:2 2 ......... the problem is that justice again do not 37:2 6 ......... labor this poor patient not re fer to 37:2 8 ......... death but but if you give up smoking in 37:3 0 ......... your 60s it's not nearly as good as 37:3 2 ......... giving up in your 30s on although you'll 37:3 5 ......... feel better you still have a lot of 37:3 7 ......... damage and China is in that condition 37:3 9 ......... now China is trying to move to a more 37:4 2 ......... sustainable economy after 30 years of 37:4 7 ......... taking the view that Brandon grooves 37:4 9 ......... were counted that you'll get rich and 37:5 2 ......... then we'll clean up and now China in 37:5 6 ......... addition to all the other challenges i t 37:5 8 ......... faces is facing the very very heavy 38:0 0 ......... consequences of a very wasteful 38:0 5 ......... ng model now every industrial economy 38:0 9 ......... did this the brick started the united 38:1 2 ......... states did germany did it we all 38:1 4 ......... polluted first with the idea that we 38:1 7 ......... would clean up later the problem china

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38:1 9 ......... has is that it started off with much 38:2 2 ......... much less headroom than anybody else 38:2 4 ......... accusing china has ruffled same surface 38:2 6 ......... areas the United States bolonia fraction 38:2 8 ......... of the usable land and five times the 38:3 1 ......... population if you look at any measure 38:3 3 ......... any index of environmental every we like 38:3 7 ......... China starts off gravely disadvantage 38:4 0 ......... that's bad luck but that is the reality 38:4 2 ......... so China starts off for ins tance with a 38:4 6 ......... very very low allocation of fresh water 38:4 9 ......... we don't think of China Saudi Arabia but 38:5 2 ......... North China it has about the same 38:5 5 ......... allocation fresh water and this this 39:0 0 ......... poor allocation is exacerbated by uneven 39:0 3 ......... di stributions that you love sometimes 39:0 5 ......... too much water under the 39:0 7 ......... and not nearly enough north of the axle 39:0 9 ......... and if you add on to that the fact that 39:1 4 ......... the rest of China's surface water and a 39:1 7 ......... great deal of its underground water has 39:2 0 ......... been heavily polluted through very poor 39:2 3 ......... governance through you know the 39:2 5 ......... get rich quick approach of they both 39:2 7 ......... chemical industry amongst others through 39:3 0 ......... the fact that all the twenty percent of 39:3 2 ......... the fresh wat er is taken up by by coal 39:3 5 ......... by the mining and processing and general 39:3 9 ......... use of coal and by the fact that North 39:4 3 ......... China has been drawing down its reserves 39:4 6 ......... in compensating for for its lack of 39:5 2 ......... water by over drawing water from rivers 39:5 4 ......... by over drawing from underground 39:5 7 ......... aquifers the water table under bridge in 39:5 9 ......... for instance has brought by some 8 0 40:0 2 ......... meters and all over the North China 40:0 3 ......... Plain you see indentations of exhausted 40:0 7 ......... aquifers and 17 ,00 0 40:1 0 ......... disappear completely Chinese geography 40:1 4 ......... survey in the last 20 years you can see 40:1 9 ......... that that at least in terms of a patient 40:2 2 ......... who exposed to live a long time 40:2 4 ......... something quite drastic has to happen 40:2 7 ......... and there is a huge economic risk built 40:3 0 ......... into this North China has forty percent 40:3 3 ......... of the of the Chinese economy the assets 40:3 7 ......... at risk in agriculture or about three 40:4 0 ......... trillion a year is more than 40 trillion 40:4 3 ......... in terms of industrial econom y of China 40:4 6 ......... and none of this confunkshun water 40:5 0 ......... powering China water and energy are 40:5 3 ......... intimately connected decisions every 40:5 5 ......... energy decision is also important 40:5 7 ......... decision and that is the Chinese running 41:0 1 ......... out of room to make energy decisions

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41:0 5 ......... freely now China has that there is a 41:0 9 ......... sort of definition of foolish behavior 41:1 3 ......... which is to keep addressing the same 41:1 6 ......... problem with the same solution and 41:1 7 ......... hoping the world next time China's 41:2 0 ......... ap proach to its water problem has been 41:2 3 ......... substantially an engineering one time 41:2 6 ......... it's booked more dams entry 41:2 9 ......... tree it continues to blow down 6 41:3 1 ......... currently building downs in one of the 41:3 3 ......... world's most active earthquake zones on 41:3 5 ......... transfer agreements what is probably and 41:3 9 ......... through all this engineering some of 41:4 1 ......... them quite heroic engineering the water 41:4 4 ......... situation in China has got steadily 41:4 6 ......... worse so engineering is not lead to 41:4 9 ......... fixing the most rec ent case of Miss 41:5 1 ......... applied engineering is the south north 41:5 3 ......... auto transfer project a multi million 41:5 6 ......... dollar project to move really inadequate 42:0 0 ......... amounts of rather dirty water fit a high 42:0 2 ......... energy costs from sunshine and North 42 :0 4 ......... China it's not going to fix north 42:0 6 ......... china's water problem and upon a cost 42:0 8 ......... per meter basis it would be cheaper to 42:1 1 ......... disseminate so curiousity an appropriate 42:1 5 ......... decisions continue to be made and i 42:1 7 ......... think one of the reason s that they 42:1 8 ......... continue to be made is that although we 42:2 1 ......... have so we do see a tremendous awareness 42:2 4 ......... at this point when we started trying to 42:2 6 ......... dial up to now nine years ago 42:2 9 ......... environmental problems really we're at 42:3 1 ......... the ma rgin of public discussion there 42:3 4 ......... was the beginning of civil society 42:3 7 ......... and so very talented and active 42:4 0 ......... individuals but in general terms the 42:4 3 ......... priority is still very rapid GDP growth 42:4 7 ......... today environmental concerns are a 42:5 0 ......... matter of regime survival we know about 42:5 3 ......... evolution because cause the regime to 42:5 6 ......... take quite serious metals water 43:0 0 ......... pollution the water scarcity or also 43:0 3 ......... existential threats of Chinese economy 43:0 6 ......... we don't hear so much about soil 43:0 8 ......... pollution but that's an equally severe 43:1 1 ......... and extremely intractable problem which 43:1 4 ......... is currently a state secret the extent 43:1 6 ......... of it assisting secret is more 43:1 8 ......... intractable because it's very expensive 43:2 0 ......... and difficult to fix so cleaning up soil 43:2 3 ......... and then remediating him so that it is 43:2 5 ......... of some use is very very difficult now 43:2 9 ......... all these issues have come together and 43:3 3 ......... certainly the government has responded

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43:3 5 ......... to 120 0 43:3 7 ......... it's a beautifu l sustainability it will 43:4 0 ......... take a long time with to turn the 43:4 2 ......... economy around and be one of the bills 43:4 4 ......... for past behavior will have to be met in 43:4 8 ......... some form and what are these bills well 43:5 1 ......... they are the cost of remediation you 43:5 3 ......... know the cost of treating the water both 43:5 5 ......... of them discharging delta neutral they 43:5 8 ......... are the costs of of making an energy 44:0 0 ......... transition which allows you to clean up 44:0 2 ......... the air and they are the health impacts 44:0 5 ......... on the Chin ese population which are 44:0 8 ......... equally severe and air pollution is not 44:1 1 ......... just a billion unpleasantly causes lung 44:1 4 ......... cancer and China's lung cancer rates 44:1 6 ......... have gone our illness as fast as the 44:1 9 ......... economy if you look at the growth we 44:2 2 ......... don't hear quite so much about other 44:2 3 ......... forms of counsel counsel villages entire 44:2 6 ......... communities struck by the the effects of 44:3 0 ......... chinese industrial revolution but they 44:3 3 ......... are also severe and those girls will 44:3 5 ......... have to be me t so there is a toxic 44:3 8 ......... legacy of the race to industrialize and 44:4 1 ......... although it is fixable it is it is a 44:4 4 ......... burn on the present 44:4 7 ......... generations just to cheer you up 44:4 9 ......... completely there's been climate change 44:5 2 ......... China is very vul nerable to the impacts 44:5 5 ......... of climate change because most of its 44:5 7 ......... development its advanced development is 44:5 9 ......... on low lying coastal cities so sea level 45:0 3 ......... rise monsoon variability nothing places 45:0 6 ......... and they never there are extremely 45:1 0 ......... serious I can see you getting anxious so 45:1 6 ......... the news the good news is and that 45:1 9 ......... client accepting a kind of course in 45:2 1 ......... China China for many reasons is I think 45:2 5 ......... going to surprise a lot of people when 45:2 7 ......... its pilot palac e is published and and 45:3 0 ......... comparison why do I say because China is 45:3 4 ......... at the same time as suffering all these 45:3 5 ......... problems the biggest producer of solar 45:3 7 ......... panels wind technology it has a very 45:4 1 ......... large installed capacity for renewab le 45:4 5 ......... energies and it has a promise to peep 45:4 8 ......... its emissions by 2030 probably couldn't 45:5 1 ......... do it by 2022 might do it by 2025 and 45:5 4 ......... emissions will then that begins 45:5 7 ......... this is a very positive contribution of 45:5 9 ......... China is going to make nobody is doing 46:0 3 ......... enough but so I think the Copenhagen 46:0 7 ......... situation or which times 46:0 9 ......... break down the drawers is not likely to

PAGE 19

46:1 2 ......... be to be repeated in Paris so 46:2 5 ......... well thank you very much I think we've 46:2 7 ......... had three very of rich contributing so 46:3 1 ......... there are many different lines of 46:3 3 ......... discussion which eat out what I'd like 46:3 5 ......... to suggest since we're going to have to 46:3 7 ......... compress out of the bird is that I try 46:4 1 ......... to extract out of those presentations 4 6:4 4 ......... really just two questions I'd like to 46:4 7 ......... put those out and that will give all 46:4 9 ......... three of you an opportunity briefly 46:5 2 ......... means to accommodate anything and 46:5 4 ......... grinning like out of what your fellow 46:5 7 ......... panelists have said one of them is I was 47:0 1 ......... very struck by what Beverly had to say 47:0 3 ......... about censored openness and and 47:0 6 ......... curiosity which he encounters on the 47:0 8 ......... part of young people the question in my 47:1 2 ......... mind is is that sense of openness and 47:1 5 ......... curiosit y shared by the party shared by 47:2 0 ......... the government facilitated by the 47:2 3 ......... government in the way which is really 47:2 5 ......... going to make China other 47:2 9 ......... his awesome away and the other question 47:3 3 ......... is on anto question of reform but there 47:3 6 ......... is no paper has as I'm from said some 47:3 9 ......... very ambitious plans some very 47:4 2 ......... impressive looking plans that the third 47:4 4 ......... cleaner and java laid out anything very 47:4 9 ......... interesting settled without proposed 47:5 2 ......... means but is there a will to put those 47:5 7 ......... proposals into effect of the vested 48:0 0 ......... interests going to be through come all 48:0 4 ......... those reforms really effectively going 48:0 6 ......... to be carried out to the way which will 48:0 8 ......... make Chinese economic health as lusty 48:1 2 ......... that unique so who like to comment on 48:1 6 ......... other of the news that second 48:2 4 ......... yeah it was just on the question of 48:2 7 ......... whether whether the curiosity in the 48:3 0 ......... open mindedness of the young is shared 48:3 2 ......... by both government I think that I may be 48:3 5 ......... five six years ago who said yes today I 48:4 0 ......... I would certainly say I think that we've 48:4 3 ......... seen increasingly concerns expressed 48:4 7 ......... that the most senior levels of 48:4 9 ......... government above about Western ideas and 48:5 2 ......... how dangerous ques ting ideas not which I 48:5 5 ......... described as dangerous to China actually 48:5 7 ......... they're dangerous perhaps or seen as 48:5 9 ......... dangerous to regime survival we see an 49:0 2 ......... increasingly heavy hand and center ship 49:0 4 ......... and increasingly having hadn't given 49:0 6 ......... free flow of information we see an 49:0 9 ......... increasing arrest on all sorts of

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49:1 3 ......... charges of people who are thinking 49:1 5 ......... people who are who have set up think 49:1 8 ......... tanks and people who are putting forward 49:2 0 ......... ideas about future govern ance in all 49:2 4 ......... sorts of ways so I think that that is 49:2 7 ......... electrically trend I I would like to 49:3 1 ......... propose that obviously in China is a 49:3 4 ......... very very large country what seemingly 49:3 8 ......... maybe censorship which there is and 49:4 1 ......... there has been I think a 49:4 6 ......... not even rewriting text and limiting 49:5 2 ......... information that turns through the 49:5 5 ......... country by the same token china is 50:0 0 ......... allowing people to leave it allows 50:0 5 ......... thoughtful process the concern is at 50:1 1 ......... what speed so I think there's a little 50:1 4 ......... conflict there and respecto of not and 50:1 8 ......... cutting back reverting entrenching I 50:2 2 ......... would like to think that they're looking 50:2 5 ......... to slow down the process with innovation 50:2 8 ......... and technology and all the stren gths and 50:3 3 ......... the ills of thing for hit grades there 50:3 5 ......... is great concern that it goes to rapidly 50:3 8 ......... let me give you an example in fact what 50:4 2 ......... if I my colleagues was on a flight from 50:4 5 ......... Shanghai to Guam terms that I callate as 50:4 8 ......... it turns out there was a rumor in 50:5 0 ......... Guangzhou that we're I don't know if 50:5 6 ......... you're aware of it and syndrome because 50:5 7 ......... of the minority group China looks in 51:0 0 ......... what 51:0 2 ......... equal opportunity physician to to take 51:0 7 ......... the league of people to different parts 51:0 9 ......... of the country so that they might 51:1 0 ......... participate to the economic growth of 51:1 5 ......... the country and a rumor was spread that 51:1 9 ......... six weigert had attacked a young woman 51:2 4 ......... in Guangzhou and that led to cell phone s 51:2 8 ......... all the way back to Lucci that led to 51:3 1 ......... riots were 200 people were killed the 51:3 6 ......... unfortunate thing about this was that 51:3 8 ......... this was only a war so those are real 51:4 2 ......... concerns in terms of growth to quickly 51:4 5 ......... communication t oo quickly and it's 51:4 7 ......... coming and China will invest in it but 51:5 1 ......... their needs perhaps to be a certain 51:5 6 ......... temporary in terms of speed all the 52:0 0 ......... squirrels 52:0 5 ......... I was listening to myself talk I thought 52:0 8 ......... this is 52:0 9 ......... the pessim istic pessimistic talk I'd 52:1 3 ......... like to actually pick up on something 52:1 5 ......... that Beverly said about the openness and 52:1 7 ......... curiosity I've also been struck by that 52:2 0 ......... I when I analyzed the issues facing

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52:2 6 ......... China intend to go heavy on the pr oblems 52:3 1 ......... make very clear what the huge challenges 52:3 4 ......... are but this is especially true when I'm 52:3 7 ......... in the United States sitting my desk and 52:3 9 ......... then I go to China and of course that 52:4 2 ......... meet many Chinese people also the 52:4 3 ......... univer sity but I meet people I mean 52:4 5 ......... basic level officials in China I mean 52:4 8 ......... academics when I go to bed and talk to 52:5 3 ......... county level officials I get the sense 52:5 7 ......... of I mean very intelligent hard working 53:0 0 ......... honest people I don't actually see the 53:0 3 ......... corruption that people talk about I've 53:0 6 ......... never been shaken down by a traffic cop 53:0 8 ......... for anything like that when I read books 53:1 1 ......... about Cambodia or Russia constantly and 53:1 6 ......... I almost adopt this kind of proud 53:1 9 ......... feeli ng as a student of China that 53:2 1 ......... China's from government much better than 53:2 3 ......... these countries 53:2 5 ......... you know this is most of my work in 53:2 7 ......... recent years has been about China and 53:2 8 ......... 1960s and even in that period china the 53:3 2 ......... chinese communist party is a very well 53:3 4 ......... organized entity so there's an 53:3 8 ......... irrational part of me that wants to 53:4 0 ......... believe that somehow somehow the people 53:4 5 ......... of China will be able to so that's my 53:4 9 ......... that's mine 53:5 2 ......... more happy face sou nded like a pretty 53:5 6 ......... blue presentations thank you very much 53:5 9 ......... now I think we'll sit with it selected 54:0 1 ......... with the questions which I have and 54:0 4 ......... choose ones which again has a new handle 54:0 7 ......... to our discussion is Henry Devereaux 54:1 2 ......... would you like to bathroom but I feel 54:1 5 ......... like that you do you do I can ask your 54:1 8 ......... best friend now do you see 54:3 2 ......... do you see any any likely the chinese 54:3 5 ......... club willing to spend something like ten 54:3 8 ......... percent of gdp on health embez zle on the 54:4 2 ......... population say a decade from now taking 54:4 7 ......... aging products okay westerbeke spiritual 54:5 2 ......... health care as welfare as well have you 54:5 6 ......... don't stop I can see China being very 55:0 0 ......... concerned about the welfare of its 55:0 2 ......... peo ple The Enquirer the crackdown on 55:0 6 ......... corruption I would think that the 55:0 8 ......... medical industry is one that it brings a 55:1 1 ......... great person to China and as the 55:1 4 ......... populace bros and you have the 55:1 6 ......... middle income center the people now 55:19 ......... become far expressing the need for 55:2 3 ......... better medical care or to look at as 55:2 7 ......... well as the country having an age of

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55:3 0 ......... population China will have to commit to 55:3 5 ......... developing a larger mammals 55:3 9 ......... Ford's people may be fact that you 55 :4 1 ......... believe that it is on their agenda 55:4 3 ......... important ones together with food safety 55:4 6 ......... together the pollution champine this 55:5 0 ......... year has committed to 27 billion dollars 55:5 5 ......... to work on pollution to clear up the 55:5 8 ......... rivers to investigat e how they might 56:0 2 ......... improve the air quality to look up your 56:0 6 ......... toxic waste in the area through 56:0 8 ......... factories within the Shanghai are a 2 7 56:1 1 ......... million not committed of four in five or 56:1 4 ......... ten or twenty year period it's a 56:1 7 ......... three year commitment that that point 56:1 8 ......... will be spent 56:2 4 ......... I exam to read and health spending was 56:2 8 ......... going off over a year I think though 56:3 3 ......... that there are there are a number of 56:3 5 ......... large social costs which you're going to 56:3 8 ......... have to be met over the next few years 56:4 0 ......... and one of 11 remains and going back to 56:4 3 ......... the questions of inequality who is going 56:4 6 ......... to fund the social rights of the of the 56:5 0 ......... rule who quarters these are migrant 56:5 3 ......... workers and I believe my co workers who 56:5 5 ......... moved to the cities but and don't have 56:5 7 ......... social rights in their cities they don't 56:5 8 ......... have the right fletchinder go to school 57:0 0 ......... they don't have access to health any 57:0 4 ......... kind of social safety net there is a 57:0 7 ......... ge neral acceptance that this is 57:0 9 ......... monstrously unfair and it's causing all 57:1 1 ......... kinds of additional social problems like 57:1 3 ......... left behind children children World War 57:1 5 ......... and Indian villages in some cases to the 57:1 9 ......... grandparents in some cas es without it 57:2 2 ......... was a terrible case recently suicide of 57:2 5 ......... five young children in that situation of 57:2 8 ......... course a lot of anxiety 57:3 0 ......... the problem is who's going to fund it so 57:3 3 ......... the cities where these people moved are 57:3 7 ......... many of them in debt they don't have the 57:4 1 ......... right disco ball in another local 57:4 3 ......... property tax to support their 57:4 5 ......... expenditure they have to give too much 57:4 7 ......... the government they don't get no back so 57:4 9 ......... there's a fight going on right now Oh 57:5 1 ......... social spending pretty much in all 57:5 3 ......... sectors in China and it's about where 57:5 6 ......... the responsibility will finally devolved 57:5 8 ......... and I think until that is resolved it's 58:0 1 ......... going to be very hard to know in 1 0 58:0 3 ......... years time huggles purporting to pan out 58:0 6 ......... certainly there's a strong sense that

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58:0 9 ......... it's required but quite welcome 58:1 7 ......... send you now is country Mac yes 58:2 5 ......... given China's political system heavily 58:3 0 ......... influences its economy does that mean 58:3 3 ......... that it s economic policy fundamentally 58:3 7 ......... different to that of Western Europe and 58:4 0 ......... North America and if that's the case 58:4 3 ......... then what's the implication for many 58:4 6 ......... theorists of trying to analyze come 58:4 9 ......... healthy challenge I think opium 5 8:5 5 ......... partially dress that move my comments by 58:5 8 ......... saying that in many respects Chinese 59:0 0 ......... corporate article corporates system 59:0 3 ......... resembles the Japanese statement 59:0 7 ......... coordination between ministries they 59:1 1 ......... have banking system in lar ge 59:1 2 ......... corporations another way which China is 59:1 6 ......... actually different from Japan and 59:1 8 ......... Western economies is that there are 59:2 2 ......... strict capital controls and the banking 59:2 5 ......... system most completely stayed up 59:2 9 ......... what this means is tha t you're on a bike 59:3 1 ......... legacy until a financial crisis of the 59:3 4 ......... kind that we experienced in the United 59:3 6 ......... States and spread throughout the world 59:3 9 ......... 2007 2008 because the government has 59:4 3 ......... needs to recapitalize the banks mean 59:4 7 ......... to bail out in fact they do this more or 59:5 0 ......... less comical basis so it's not going to 59:5 3 ......... be as volatile a kind of economy as you 59:5 7 ......... might expect 60:0 0 ......... businesses result there as we saw 60:0 4 ......... 2007 200 8 60:0 7 ......... so I guess okay I think we'r e going to 60:1 6 ......... go straight to your questions quite 60:1 8 ......... refunds is an adult male audience if not 60:2 3 ......... how we turn miss you to what extent is 60:2 7 ......... China's at risk of a property stroke 60:3 0 ......... construction industry bubble bursting at 60:3 4 ......... wha t can the government do to deal with 60:3 6 ......... this is quite aware of the bubble burst 60:4 4 ......... with real estate the oversupply the cost 60:4 7 ......... of real estate having sword as it has 60:5 0 ......... they have now looked to temper 60:5 3 ......... construction temper building on the new 60:5 9 ......... developments and in fact him shinta 61:0 1 ......... strategy for expansion building railways 61:0 7 ......... building infrastructure to a while China 61:1 0 ......... to get to Pakistan the Silk Road and so 61:1 4 ......... that it might go work through Pullman in 61:1 7 ......... to create a distribution center for 61:2 0 ......... Europe and building railroads through 61:2 6 ......... Siberia up through Canada down to the US 61:3 0 ......... with the concept of outreach expansion 61:3 4 ......... program for their goods and vice versa

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61:3 9 ......... the real estate yes t here is an 61:4 3 ......... oversupply but my belief is that whilst 61:4 7 ......... the economy may go down to five percent 61:5 1 ......... you still have a thriving economy I 61:5 5 ......... believe in the US for it correctly in my 61:5 9 ......... realm 1.3 and that's an optimistic 62:0 6 ......... persp ective so in balance don't I think 62:1 2 ......... we need to look little bit more globally 62:1 4 ......... when we look at at these issues look it 62:1 7 ......... up other countries in how they aren't 62:1 9 ......... there so I'm not as pessimistic about 62:2 3 ......... the outcome of China bec ause again I do 62:2 7 ......... feel that you have a younger generation 62:3 0 ......... people filled with hope who are willing 62:3 2 ......... to still make sacrifice they're willing 62:3 5 ......... to see the roof and the collective 62:3 8 ......... there's a very different concept in 62:4 1 ......... t erms of how they are a popular country 62:4 5 ......... mobilize its 62:4 6 ......... it's not even 30 years the natural world 62:4 9 ......... perhaps 20 move this quickly unless you 62:5 4 ......... have 62:5 5 ......... the type of willpower an ability to make 63:0 0 ......... sacrifice and to happen so I I do feel 63:0 7 ......... that I'm one more optimistic might say 63:1 3 ......... because if I look at the water sugar it 63:1 6 ......... is a global problem I've spoken to water 63:2 1 ......... consultants and his concern is 63:2 4 ......... California more so than China because 63:2 7 ......... China doe sn't have the old 63:2 9 ......... infrastructure it will have the ability 63:3 2 ......... to create innovation to find new 63:3 6 ......... methodologies it doesn't have to leave 63:4 0 ......... go over old and restructuring with the 63:4 4 ......... new technology new innovation China 63:4 7 ......... pro bably 63:4 8 ......... an opportunity to bring new resources 63:5 2 ......... for itself others honor 63:5 8 ......... as finalists driving Duke Williams is 64:0 5 ......... not with us but he asked to what extent 64:0 9 ......... would democratization of China as he 64:1 2 ......... voted into environmental improvements 64:1 5 ......... Western democracies do not have an 64:1 8 ......... exemplary record of fossil fuels and 64:2 1 ......... carbon emissions is it ours yeah I am 64:2 6 ......... which are entirely accept the premise of 64:2 9 ......... the question all democracies are the 64:3 1 ......... same wi th all non democracies the same 64:3 3 ......... it doesn't really stand much examination 64:3 6 ......... so if President for instance European 64:4 0 ......... Union countries are pretty much on 64:4 1 ......... target for meeting at Quixote topics 64:4 3 ......... including Britain Britain is meet ing its 64:4 5 ......... clear two targets cuz mrs. able to close 64:4 7 ......... down the coal industry and wait for gas

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64:4 9 ......... entirely different reasons but 64:5 1 ......... nevertheless dalida climate Olivia that 64:5 5 ......... kind of bonus on the other hand Canada 64:5 8 ......... program 65:0 0 ......... I'm not doing too well Australia is not 65:0 2 ......... doing too well an India finds it very 65:0 5 ......... hard to make any decision at all but 65:0 8 ......... exemplary democracies like like Sweden 65:1 1 ......... and Denmark or aiming to be a hundred 65:1 2 ......... percent fossil fu el free in the next 65:1 4 ......... couple of decades so I think you you 65:1 7 ......... know that the show the starting point 65:1 9 ......... that that you know democracies are 65:2 1 ......... performing worse I think it's not 65:2 3 ......... necessarily true on whether 65:2 7 ......... democratization i think i think we 65:2 9 ......... always try to look at the possibility of 65:3 1 ......... reform in China through probably the 65:3 3 ......... wrong lens because we seem to be looking 65:3 6 ......... for a ballot box behind every behind 65:3 8 ......... every under every table it's not going 6 5:4 1 ......... to happen but but China's system which 65:4 4 ......... is more like responsive authoritarianism 65:4 7 ......... is certainly concerned with public 65:4 9 ......... opinion and it is concerned with the 65:5 1 ......... future and that is it to make decisions 65:5 4 ......... which are going to be more 65:5 7 ......... environmentally friendly and certainly 65:5 8 ......... as I said in my remarks in terms of 66:0 1 ......... climate policy China sees a strategic 66:0 3 ......... opportunity and quite rightly for its 66:0 7 ......... for new technologies I think environment 66:1 1 ......... rather than climate and these are not 66:1 4 ......... same thing and the difficulty I think 66:1 7 ......... that China faces in terms of 66:1 9 ......... this environment is one of governance if 66:2 3 ......... you look at industrial societies that 66:2 5 ......... dick clean up they did so with the 66: 2 7 ......... benefit of a robust civil society a 66:3 0 ......... robust legal system so religious could 66:3 3 ......... be taken to court by well funded NGOs a 66:3 8 ......... freedom of information and a free press 66:4 0 ......... transparency accountability all those 66:4 2 ......... good things which m ake for governance 66:4 5 ......... what we haven't China's a lot of very 66:4 7 ......... good laws very very poorly applied now 66:5 0 ......... there is some silent in the 13th plan 66:5 3 ......... and a great deal of thought has gone 66:5 5 ......... into this and so we will see reforms of 66:5 9 ......... a governance system which could well 67:0 0 ......... affect an improvement one for instance 67:0 3 ......... is to make officials responsible over 67:0 7 ......... their lifetime could be for the 67:0 9 ......... decisions and the consequences of 67:1 0 ......... decisions that they make rather a good

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67:1 3 ......... idea I think we should do that that 67:1 5 ......... means you can't just you know wreck 67:1 7 ......... Italian move on and say in 20 years time 67:1 9 ......... oh I can't even remember it was that it 67:2 2 ......... will follow you and it will affect your 67:2 4 ......... promotion prospects in that will make 67:2 6 ......... behavior much more responsible today so 67:2 8 ......... that's a good example of thinking about 67:3 1 ......... how within a top down system you do get 67:3 4 ......... better governance and other quirks and I 67:3 8 ......... still think that the kind of 67:4 1 ......... restrictions that are coming 67:4 3 ......... are not going to help you need to engage 67:4 7 ......... the population in this kind of thing 67:4 9 ......... can't do it alone as a government and I 67:5 2 ......... think that Chinese handicapping itself 67:5 4 ......... in that state bye b ye not in pari its 67:5 9 ......... people 68:0 5 ......... although hand back to show 68:1 2 ......... so the question we have asked as divided 68:1 5 ......... opinion and China as a subject of study 68:1 8 ......... divides it is very tempting to spend 68:2 3 ......... most of your time talking to them 68 :2 5 ......... sitting in a room with people of the 68:2 7 ......... same in not reach out and talk to people 68:3 2 ......... come from different perspectives and 68:3 4 ......... physically but we've been trying to get 68:3 7 ......... there but we continue to the next year 68:4 0 ......... near Earth year a fter is to bring them 68:4 3 ......... together will hold a perspective one to 68:4 6 ......... enter into conversation and what half 68:4 8 ......... the time and I've gotten delighted the 68:5 2 ......... wonderful example set by a panel I would 68:5 6 ......... like all of you to ask 69:1 1 ......... you 69:2 2 ......... you