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“...safe locations, vi) Training and facilitation and vii) Urban Planning including heritage settlement planning. Housing and settlements have been reviewed with a comprehensive view to ensure disaster resilience of the whole community, taking into consideration vulnerability due to location. The data for relocation of settlements in all affected districts was not verified at the time of preparation of the PDNA. Relocation cases require careful and detailed analysis of landslide risks and socio-economic impacts along with close consultation with impacted communities.
Estimated damage and losses are presented in Table 1. The figures consider physical damage and loss of housing. Similarly, total reconstruction and recovery needs are presented in Table 2.
Table 1: Total Damage and Loss
Details Number of Houses Damage and Loss (NPR million)
Damage Collapsed houses Low Strength Masonry 474,025 199,091 258,442
Cement based Masonry 18,214 19,671
RC Frame 6,613 39,680
Damaged houses Low Strength...”
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“...assessment.
Pre-Disaster Context and Baseline
2.1 Policies on Housing and Settlements
Several Constitutional Acts and policies are particularly relevant for housing and settlements sector. The 2007 Interim Constitution of Nepal stresses the responsibility of the state to provide land especially to the economically weak and/or landless people. The 2012 National Shelter Policy further stresses the right to safe and adequate housing to all.
The 2007 National Urban Policy aims for (i) settlement and economic activities in stressing balanced national urban structure, (ii) development of safe and prosperous settlement areas by increasing the resilience against environmental shocks and stresses, and (iii) effective urban management through capacity development of local bodies.
The 2012 National Land-use Policy has classified different categories of land, with a focus on optimal utilization and enforcement of land use control. It encourages relocation of settlements from hazard-prone areas and settlement...”
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“... in recent decades. Nepal is predominantly rural, with an urbanization level of about 38%. The decadal urban growth rate between 2001 and 2011 was 6.4%. However, Kathmandu with 61% decadal growth has witnessed a disproportionate influx from rural areas. The disaster risk to cities is of particular concern, as they are concentrations of people and serve as engines for economic growth. The 2015 earthquake has affected a total of 41 municipalities and many market areas.
2.3.2. Urban Planning and Development: A Case of Kathmandu Valley (KV)
The case of Kathmandu city is important to understand urban risk scenario as it impacts a large population. Land use change modelling and analysis has shown that the urban morphology of Kathmandu valley has changed drastically in the past two decades, with a 211% increase in built up area between 1992 and 2012. This has occurred through an equivalent loss of cultivated land and significant encroachment of open spaces. The loss of open spaces coupled with...”
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“...though the response activities will be focused to mitigate such needs. The access to care if affected and thus effect will be seen in programs for regular follow up for antenatal, post-natal care, neonatal care, DOTS and ART services which can result in high morbidity and mortality of the disease status. The negative affect on health is also expected due to effect on the nutritional status of the vulnerable population in these districts. However, estimates of life years lost and other social impacts of the earthquake in the health sector have not been estimated in money value due to the complicated methodologies involved.
Recovery Needs and strategy
Ministry of Health and Population formed a coordination committee for the assessment of needs and planning for recovery and reconstruction of the health sector under the chair of Chief of Policy, Planning and International Cooperation Division. Based on the information available from the districts an initial set of necessary activities was defined...”
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“...should give greater emphasis on addressing the root causes of vulnerability and prevention of malnutrition. Hence, it is advisable to orient all reconstruction efforts towards a more sustainable
11IZA (2010) Do natural disasters affect human capital? An assessment based on existing empirical evidence. DP No. 5164
12 E. Frankenburg, J. Friedman, N. Ingwersen, & D. Thomas (2013). Child Height After a Natural Disaster.
13 J.K. Antilla - Hughes & S.M. Hsiang (2013). Destruction, Divestment and Death: Economic and Human Losses Following Environmental Disaster.
14 Maternal and Child Nutrition series. The Lancet. 2013.
66...”
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“...employability of the TVET graduates remains low and there are challenges in responding to the market needs.
In higher education, total student enrollment increased from 173,546 in 2005/06 to 569,665 in 2012/13, with an average annual growth rate of 14.7%. Of this, approximately 40% are girls. The number of graduates increased from 25,900 in 2005/06 to 63,642 during the same period. The gross enrollment rate reached 17.1 in 2012/13, which is higher than that of most countries at comparable levels of economic development. Despite significant achievements over the past decade, weak relevance, low quality, internal inefficiency, inequity and inadequate financing continue to pose major challenges in higher education.
22 Within Dalits, the share of girls slightly decreases in secondary (49.1%) and higher secondary (48.5%) levels.
23 Central Bureau of Statistics. 2011. Nepal Population and Housing Census 2011: Main Report. Kathmandu: Central Bureau of Statistics.
76...”
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“...committees, as many have incurred losses to lives and property. Further, given that education personnel have been redeployed for structural assessments and relief works, service delivery at central and local levels are likely to be affected for some time, although these effects will gradually subside.
Emerging risks and vulnerabilities
Disasters affect different segments of society in disproportional ways. Nepal is a highly diverse country in terms of geography, demography, language and socio-economic status, and certain areas and groups tend to be more vulnerable to disasters than others. The vulnerabilities are likely to be exacerbated by internal displacement of people and increased risks of flooding and landslides in the rainy season.
Table 3: Prediction of internal efficiency in the affected districts
80...”
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“...hazards and to guide them properly in responding and evacuation in the event of disasters. MOE/DOE and DEOs must prepare school continuity plans in case of disruptions to school calendar by disasters.
Needs for addressing Social Impact of the Disaster
As the disaster is likely to further exacerbate existing disparities in terms of access, retention and learning outcomes based on the level of vulnerability across the different equity dimensions (gender, caste, ethnicity, location, disability, socio economic status, etc.), the context and the availability and access to resources, it is necessary to ensure that the strategies to address these disparities take into account the changed prevalence and severity of these disparities in the aftermath of the disaster. For this, the implementation of the Consolidated Equity Strategy for the School subsector (including the development and use of the equity index for needs-based targeting of resources to balance emerging post disaster needs with historic ...”
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“...education, which often include free and inclusive access to schooling or suspending school fees or associated costs during the recovery period. In addition, this domain involves planning and implementation of education activities that help integrate the local, national and international standards, laws, policies and plans for learning that is delivered for the disaste r-affecte d population.
DEO 1. # of schools closed to date 2. # of children not likely to return to school (due to migration, fear, economic issues, additional tasks and needs created by the disaster) 9. What damages on teaching and learning materials will cause the main challenge for resuming the education? 10. What are the examinations that have been disrupted (if any) 17. How many teachers are from outside of the district, VDC? IS. How many teachers are from the affected district, VDCs? 19. How many have teachers have gone back home and 27. What are the effects on service delivery of DEO, ETC, RCs, Technical schools and others...”
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“...rescheduling how many of those 28. What is the extent
from certain plans (if any)? would you expect of effects to SMCs
groups? And, what to come back when and PTAs in
are the reasons/ 11. What is the the schools open? schools and
barriers (for estimated % of management
example schools where 20. How many teachers committees of
gender/d isabil ity/ teaching-learning are expected to CTEVT schools and
ethnic/caste/locati activities have return when colleges?
on/socio- resumed? schools open?
economic status)? 29. How are
12. What % of 21. What % of teachers displacement and
4. Is there equal children had affected by the migration
access to already received disaster in terms of patterns, such as
schools/learning textbooks and being injured of loss of families and
centres for boys TLMs? displaced? orphan hood
and girls, different tracked?
caste/ethnicities? 13. What is the new 22. Have teachers been
Are there safety requirement for receiving monthly 30. What measures
issues...”
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“... migration, fear, and learning VDCs? SMC/DEO? What
economic issues, materials? kind of
additional tasks 49. How many have instructions?
and needs created 42. Will you be teachers have gone
by the disaster) involved in any back home and 60. What mechanisms
other temporary how many of those need to be in place
37. Are these children teaching would you expect to resume service
from activities? to come back when delivery and to
disadvantaged the schools open? protect the
groups? And, what 43. What % of education system
are the reasons/ children had 50. Do teachers, which from future shocks
barriers (for already received are not from the and strengthen the
example textbooks and area, feel their resilience of
gender/d isabil ity/ TLMs? work will be children, teachers
ethnic/caste/locati complicated and communities?
on/socio- 44. What is the new because of the fact
economic status)? requirement for they are not from
additional...”
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“...completely. In addition, in more than 20 districts, thousands of private traditional homes and historic public buildings, as well as ancient temples and monasteries, were damaged or collapsed completely. Bringing the country's heritage back to its former glory will result in a range of economic benefits, in particular for Nepal's world class craftsmen, artists, architects, conservators, historians and engineers. The estimated damage to heritage structures cultural institutions is about USD 169 million and related losses from damage and impact on livelihoods totals around USD 23 million.
The long-term recovery plan envisages complete restoration of all destroyed structures and to substantially reduce negative impacts from possible future earthquakes. Benefits of massive internationally supported restoration and rebuilding programs will strengthen Nepal's professional corps and its institutions. Based on the principles of "building back better" and conforming to the challenges of "disaster risk...”
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“...interrelated with loss of intangible heritage and identity, just as loss of traditional family dwellings is intrinsically entwined with the day-to-day lives of the people. Loss of intangible cultural heritage could be treated in parallel with loss of tangible heritage. Traditional architectural styles of building, just like clothing, are integral to ethnic and cultural identity of the people. Displacement of people will further weaken their links to community centers and rituals.
Significant economic losses will incur in communities that rely on the revenue generated with the interruption of annual ritual activities. Ritual performances and religious dances associated with these temples will be severely curtailed, or may not occur, leading to a potential loss of this intangible heritage. Stone and metal sculptures, often revered as living gods, will need to be relocated from badly damaged sites to new structures, which are safe for worship. Costs will be associated with inventorying, storing...”
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“...women more vulnerable to other possible future disasters. The earthquake has seriously impacted on the agriculture-based livelihood in the affected districts increasing their vulnerability to hunger and food insecurity. The loss of farmland and other productive assets, and the risk of having land uncultivated in hill slopes of the most affected districts further increases the risks of decreased production and food insecurity in coming months and next couple of years with far reaching negative impacts. Currently provided basic food and nutrition package as humanitarian relief materials is neither enough to feed the family over longer run nor sustainable. Furthermore, some of the vulnerable farmers are indebted and at the current situation, it will be extremely difficult for them to pay back the capital with interest. Moreover, though policy exists, most of the farmers did not have access to insurance services to insure their crop, houses or livestock.
Unless these farmers are supported to...”
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“...employment. The sector now is affected severely by the earthquake, and this situation could push the sector to further crisis further resulting low production and abandon farms. Achievement of the MDG goals with sustainable economy and employment growth may therefore remain a challenge. An impact analysis of the earthquake is therefore needed to find out the extent of dislocation of the progress paths of the country to achieve MDG and other development goals such as poverty reduction, food security, economic growth and graduation of the country from the least developed county status to a developing country.
Recovery Needs and strategy
The overall recovery and reconstruction is estimated at NPR 15,560 million out of which NPR 3,579 million (23%) is required for immediate recovery in short term for the period of next 12 months, and NPR 11,981 million (76%) is required for reconstruction of the sector in the medium-term over a period of 36 months. The notion of Building Back Better has been taken into...”
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“...27. Parbat 5 4.6 0.0 4.6 135 0.007
28. Sankhuwasabha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
29. Syangja 7 8.0 0.0 8.0 126 0.007
30. Solukhumbu 6 5.4 2.5 7.9 75 0.004
31. Tanahun 2 1.1 0.0 1.0 40 0.002
Total 290 304.0 78.8 382.8 8,295 0. 4
Recovery Needs and strategy
Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy based on Building Back Better Approach
The general approach and strategy for recovery and reconstruction is to restore the performance of irrigation sector as quickly as possible with an objective of minimizing economic losses in agriculture sector. Given the limited international experience in designing and building earthquake resilient small-scale irrigation scheme and the absence of local experience and capacity on this subject, it is not realistic to wait for new design/retrofitting guidelines to be prepared before starting rebuilding/repairing the damaged schemes. Developing new design guidelines or retrofitting guidelines for irrigation scheme will require action research consisting of pilot testing the...”
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“...retrofitting of office buildings will take up to 2.5 years including 6 months for survey and detailed designs, 8 months for tendering and contract award, and 12 months for construction.
(iii) Long term reconstruction activities up to - FY 2018-19 . These will consist of identifying possible options for building/retrofitting more earthquake resilient small- and medium- scale irrigation schemes from the international literature and particularly from the Indian Himalayan region as the geologic and economic setting might be similar. The experience of the international water management institute with post-earth-quake canal restoration in Pakistan may be a good example. The most promising options will then be tested through pilots in earthquake prone affected hill districts. Based on the results of the pilot irrigation schemes, design guidelines will be updated and retrofitting guidelines will be produced. It is estimated that completion of these tasks should take at least 4 years.
Table 3 Estimated...”
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“...the country overall).
Beyond immediate effects in terms of damage and losses, the earthquake is likely to generate negative impacts in the sectors overall in terms of business survival and performance, with the exception of the construction subsector, which is likely to be strengthened. Among other impacts, the lower business performance in these sectors is likely to translate into decreased government revenue as well as employment losses, and, as a result thereof, increased individual and household poverty.
Table 1:
Earthquake Effects Recovery and Reconstruction Needs
Damages (NRP, millions) Losses (NRP, millions) Recovery Needs (NRP, millions) Reconstruction Needs (NRP, millions)
14 Districts 15,613 16,874 6,624 17,955
31 Districts* 17,408 18,815 7,386 20,019
*11.5% is used as a basis for extrapolation from 14 to 31 districts
To mitigate these negative impacts and allow for the sectors to recover and contribute to overall reconstruction efforts, a two-pronged recovery strategy is therefore...”
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“...Total Nepalese Rupees 1,473,539,000 3,245,966,880 4,059,909,833 115,927,073 1,994,360,500 6,393,068,958 7,527,809,333 9,754,962,911
Extrapolating with a multiplier of 11.5%, the total damage for both sectors combined for the country overall amount to NRP 17,408 million, while damages amount to NRP 18,815 million.
Disaster Effects and Impacts
While an accurate estimate of impact is difficult to obtain given limitations in the baseline and postearthquake data that could be obtained and in the absence of a detailed survey, this section outlines impacts that have a relatively high likelihood of occurring, calling for a recovery strategy that mitigates negative impacts and supports the sector in its recovery.
it is expected that the damages and losses experienced by enterprises in the commerce and industry sectors will lead to a number of changes within the sectors themselves, including:
• The possible collapse of a share of the most hard hit micro-enterprises;
174...”
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| 20 |
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“...challenges X
Liquidity crunch in banks due to requests for loans from enterprises X X
Decrease in investment overall X X X
Negative impact on stock exchange X X X
To mitigate the risks in terms of impact outlined above, it is critical that needs-based support is channeled to the sectors and enterprises within them in both the immediate future as well as medium-and long term.
Recovery Needs and Strategy
Recovery and Reconstruction Initiatives and Costs
Policy Measures:
Part of the response to the impacts of the earthquake and needs of the enterprises that make up the sector relates to national policy-level issues.
During the PDNA consultation process, stakeholders from the Commerce, Industry and Supplies sector recommended the following policy measures, some of which could be integrated into the sector strategy following discussion and validation by Government and other stakeholders:
• Increased government budget to the sector for recovery and revival, in order to cover direct losses and to channel...”
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