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“...Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
97501
SECTOR REPORTS
NEPAL EARTHQUAKE POST DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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“...INTRODUCTION
The Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) assesses the impact of the April 25, 2015 earthquake in Nepal and defines a recovery strategy. This volume provides detailed description of sector specific damage, losses and recovery needs.
Each sector chapter includes the following sections:
a) Summary;
b) Pre-disaster baseline and analysis of context that existed prior to the disaster;
c) Post-disaster context including sector preparedness and response;
d) Assessment of the damage and loss including costs;
e) Assessment of disaster effects and impact;
f) Recovery needs and strategy including costs;
g) Implementation arrangements; and
h) Assessment methodology.
In the analysis, damage is defined as the cost to replace durable physical assets (buildings, equipment, facilities and machinery) that were damaged or destroyed. Loss refers to changes in financial flows due to the temporary absence of infrastructure, increased or new demands (operational costs) due to the disaster, lost revenues...”
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“...locations, vi) Training and facilitation and vii) Urban Planning including heritage settlement planning. Housing and settlements have been reviewed with a comprehensive view to ensure disaster resilience of the whole community, taking into consideration vulnerability due to location. The data for relocation of settlements in all affected districts was not verified at the time of preparation of the PDNA. Relocation cases require careful and detailed analysis of landslide risks and socio-economic impacts along with close consultation with impacted communities.
Estimated damage and losses are presented in Table 1. The figures consider physical damage and loss of housing. Similarly, total reconstruction and recovery needs are presented in Table 2.
Table 1: Total Damage and Loss
Details Number of Houses Damage and Loss (NPR million)
Damage Collapsed houses Low Strength Masonry 474,025 199,091 258,442
Cement based Masonry 18,214 19,671
RC Frame 6,613 39,680
Damaged houses Low Strength Masonry...”
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“...significant.
In addition to these, additional tenure types include i) unidentified religious and traditional tenure types which are not recorded in the land register; ii) informal tenure in the form of informal and squatter settlements, including riverside and highway-side slums and those established on the periphery of urban areas; and iii) dual ownership with tenancy where the tenant does not have absolute right and ownership over the land.
The residential and agricultural land of almost all earthquake affected areas is mapped and registered with formal title. Some land parcels in newly settled areas on the periphery of the villages may be unmapped or unregistered and lack formal title.
2.3 Urban Growth and Current Planning Initiatives
2.3.1. Urban Settlements and Population Influx
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“...decades. Nepal is predominantly rural, with an urbanization level of about 38%. The decadal urban growth rate between 2001 and 2011 was 6.4%. However, Kathmandu with 61% decadal growth has witnessed a disproportionate influx from rural areas. The disaster risk to cities is of particular concern, as they are concentrations of people and serve as engines for economic growth. The 2015 earthquake has affected a total of 41 municipalities and many market areas.
2.3.2. Urban Planning and Development: A Case of Kathmandu Valley (KV)
The case of Kathmandu city is important to understand urban risk scenario as it impacts a large population. Land use change modelling and analysis has shown that the urban morphology of Kathmandu valley has changed drastically in the past two decades, with a 211% increase in built up area between 1992 and 2012. This has occurred through an equivalent loss of cultivated land and significant encroachment of open spaces. The loss of open spaces coupled with significantly...”
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“...capacity of these buildings is very low, limited by the integrity of structural components and strength of walls and lack of elements tying the structure together (ring beams at wall or roof level). Vertical and horizontal wooden elements are sometimes embedded in walls, providing some level of earthquake resistance, but this is very uncommon.
2) Cement-mortared masonry buildings: These buildings have walls of fired brick, concrete block or stone in cement-sand mortar. They are typically up to three storeys. Floors and roofs are of reinforced concrete or reinforced brick concrete. Despite using high quality materials, these buildings suffer from deficient construction practices. Provision of earthquake resistant features is not common in these buildings.
3) Reinforced concrete frame with infill: These buildings consist of cast-in-situ concrete frames with masonry partition and infill walls (brick, block or stone masonry). Infill walls are not tied to the frame. Floors and roofs consist of ...”
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“...beyond repair, and 256,697 have been partly damaged. This data does not categorize the damage by building type or urban / rural context. This assessment was conducted rapidly and is not a technical assessment. Past earthquake experiences elsewhere have shown that the balance of destroyed to partially damaged buildings is rarely this high, though the particular nature of this earthquake may explain this. For operationalizing the recovery strategy, a more rigorous technical house-to-house assessment will be necessary.
The catastrophic impact of the earthquake on the built environment of Nepal is primarily the result of the significant seismic vulnerability of unreinforced masonry buildings predominant throughout the country. There is a general lack of awareness of seismic risk in communities, coupled with lack of dissemination of improved construction practices (particularly rural areas), and a slow mechanism for enforcement of relevant building codes.
Most of the areas where buildings suffered...”
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“...from house reconstruction.
4.2 Gender and Social Inclusion
Gender: The recovery and reconstruction process must pay considerable attention to women-headed households, significant in earthquake affected districts. The women heading the family are already overburdened with their routine household activities including accessing basic services and their contribution to the farm. In such an environment, any role in the recovery and reconstruction process will only add more responsibilities and raise their workload to unsustainable levels. This situation needs to be analyzed while engaging women in the recovery and reconstruction process, including through skills development and capacity building and provision of creche services.
The average literacy rate of women is 45 percent, and even lower in the remote earthquake affected areas. This should be considered whilst developing the construction management plan both for temporary and permanent shelter, in order to allow partially literate women to...”
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“...should involve review of future seismic hazards based on latest knowledge of seismology and geo-tech studies including analysis of recorded data of the Nepal Earthquake and define earthquake loads to structures as in NBC 105, etc.
With this comprehensive planning, building permission, registration and inspection (i.e. simplified building administration for rural housing linked with quality inspection), land title and registration, open space creation, emergency transportation network, preservation and management can provide comprehensive approach to strengthen resilience.
Within the urban environment, three types of distinct categories are emerging which demand well targeted and specialized interventions in order to meet their requirements: i) Kathmandu Valley metropolitan and sub-metropolitan areas, ii) heritage settlements, and iii) small and new municipalities. Special attention has to be given to settlements with heritage importance to ensure improvement of housing stock while maintaining...”
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“...include: monitoring systems for urban displacement and migration, detailed hazard mapping, participatory planning exercises, rapid urban expansion studies, facilitated management structures (bringing together communities, government and private sector), rental stock support plans and more.
Beyond ensuring that all homes are rebuilt to hazard-resilient standards, reconstruction further aims at start addressing underlying processes that create vulnerability (even beyond the areas affected by the earthquake). As such, recovery should foster reformative rather than restorative processes. Such a "reformative recovery" should start to tackle underlying causes of vulnerability and risk, based on in depth studies. Common causes of vulnerability include lack of risk awareness, lack of dissemination and training of artisans and builders in safe construction practices, lack enforcement of building standards, lack of high-technical capacity of the private engineering practice, and more.
Overall, the r...”
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“...committing to roles and responsibilities of the household (to construct following government approved standards, to use assistance only for housing construction, etc) and the government. The assessment is also a key avenue to communicate to households the steps for recovery (example: opening a bank account to receive assistance, receiving training on reconstruction practices, etc.).
5.2 Building Construction Technologies, Materials Supply and Labor
5.2.1 Building Construction Technology
The earthquake has clearly exposed the vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes, and enhancements are required to ensure that reconstruction adheres to building back better practices. Most heavily damaged buildings did not comply with any of the National building regulations and guides.
The provision of basic disaster resistant elements (i.e. corner stitches, vertical reinforcement, diagonal bracing and horizontal bands, etc), coupled with adherence to proper masonry construction practices should be made...”
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“...complexities of the building stock in the earthquake affected areas and their rehabilitation, role of an expert group headed by an earthquake engineering advisor is envisioned to advice on vast variety of technical issues that is expected to arise during the course of the project. Members should have broad experience in post-disaster recovery; understanding of Nepali building typologies and materials, particularly the non-engineered materials and technologies; understanding of Nepal building codes and standards; geography of Nepal; expertise in geotechnical field, understanding of socio-cultural situation of Nepal; experience in capacity building. Under the guidance of Technical Committee, Technical Guidelines may have to be prepared for - i) disaster resistant reconstruction for different building typologies; and ii) repairs and retrofitting of partially damaged buildings. Nepal National Building Code Development Project, DUDBC, UNESCO, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, World Housing...”
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“...damaged low strength masonry homes, 20% would need further demolition, 40% for cement based masonry, and 80% for RC frame buildings. Demolition costs were estimated at 5% replacement costs, while clearance was estimated as NRs 8,000, NRs 20,000 and NRs 250,000 respectively for low strength masonry, cement mortared masonry and RC buildings.
6.4 Real Estate Sector Damage and Loss Calculations
Real Estate Sector private bungalows, high-rise apartments, commercial complexes suffered damages in the Earthquake. The scale of such damages is varying across different buildings. Altogether, 10,700 units from 83 high-rise buildings and 2881 bungalows from 45 colonies have been estimated to have been damaged. Based on the understanding of the real estate sector market and prevalent market rates damages and losses were calculated as NPRs 4,210 Million and NPRs 20,000 Million respectively.
6.5 Rental loss Calculations
Data on number of renters or rented apartments collapsed is not available yet. Therefore...”
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“...assessment hazards at each site. 2% of total new reconstruction costs have been included with clustering costs towards settlement planning.
Needs for training, facilitation, quality control, communication and other technical assistance activities are estimated at 2.5% of the total needs, consistent with other home-owner driven earthquake recovery programs. Needs for urban planning including that for heritage settlements are estimated at 2% of total needs.
Annex-1: Calculation Logic - Damage, Loss and Needs
Damage
1) Physical Housing Damage
A. Baseline data: Source Census 2011
B. Typologies: Using the construction type for foundation, walls and Roof as given in the Census we have derived the Building Typologies as follows
1. Stone/Brick in Mud Mortar (In flexible CGI sheet + Thatch roofing)
Type of outer wall: Mud bonded bricks/stone + Unbaked brick + Others + Not Stated
2. Stone/Brick in Cement Mortar (In Flexible CGI Sheet and Rigid RC roofing)
Type of outer wall: Cement bonded bricks/stone...”
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“...damage while the functions for extensive damage were used for calculation of ratio for partial damage.
The factors derived from the relative vulnerability of the buildings for different intensities are given below:
Table 12: Factors derived from the relative vulnerability of the buildings for different intensities
MMI PGA Damage LSM CBM RC
VI 0.12 Complete 1.00 0.00 0.00
Partial 0.93 0.07 0.00
VI+ 0.17 Complete 0.93 0.07 0.00
Partial 0.60 0.31 0.09
2 Ramesh Guragain, 2015, Development of Earthquake Risk Assessment System for Nepal, PhD Dissertation, The University of Tokyo, Japan
3 HAZUS-MH. (2003). "Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology." Department of Homeland Security, Emergency Preparedness and Response Directorate, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Washington D.C.
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“...3.6 2.2 1.6
Aggregate m3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Wire mesh m2 37.4 22.4 16.8
Steel bars Kg 117 70.4 52.8
Labor requirement:
Skilled man-days 53 32 24
Unskilled man-days 62 36.8 27.6
Annex- 2: Building Damage Gradation & Categorization
Detailed (qualitative) assessment of buildings is required for building damage gradation and categorization which forms the basis for planning response, recovery and rehabilitation of these buildings. The extent of damage is dependent not only on the severity of the earthquake shaking but also on the building typology and quality of construction. Therefore it is important to understand distinct purpose of the building damage gradation and building damage categorization. Damage gradation is done with the purpose of defining and developing type and extent of engineering intervention based on the damage, whereas building damage categorization is to facilitate financial assistance which is based on % of damage and resource requirement to repair, retrofit or reconstruct...”
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“...al damage
G3 Moderate structural damage, heavy non-structural damage
G4 Heavy structural damage, very heavy non-structural damage
G5 Destruction - very heavy structural damage
Detailed indicators are required based on the parameters presented above. Department of Urban Development and Building Construction, Government of Nepal has already developed guidelines on the above, however that needs updating taking into account Nepalese building typologies and experience gained from the 2015 Nepal Earthquake.
Building Damage Categorization
For financial assistance, a weightage based building damage categorization method is required which needs to be developed taking into account damage at component level, however the categorization system should be transparent. Financial assistance should be based on % of building damage. The % damage will be evaluated based on damaged components and likely resource requirement with help of a guideline tool. This tool will have to be developed. The proposed assistance...”
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“...9 Technical Committee Considering the complexities of the building stock in the earthquake affected areas and their rehabilitation, role of technical committee is envisioned to advice on a vast variety of technical issues which are expected to arise during the course of the project. The Committee members may be identified having background in earthquake engineering, geo-technical studies, architecture, heritage conservation, etc. relevant fields to guide the decision making with regards to reconstruction, repairs, retrofitting, planning, land use, etc. The committee would also provide solutions on issues that emerge during implementation.
B. Information Dissemination & Awareness Campaigns: The disasters have shown that absence of communication on various aspects of the reconstruction program between the affected households and the government leads to a variety of problems including inaction on the part of the house owners, adoption of incorrect building practices, unreasonable expectations...”
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“...population sector, which aimed at collecting and collating information on damage, losses, and post-disaster needs for reconstructing and rebuilding the country with the broader concept of building back better. The work accomplished by the assessment team has provided (i) analysis of the situation before the earthquake, (ii) a thorough assessment of damage and losses incurred following the earthquake and an estimation of the effect of the earthquake on health and population related services; and (iii) identification of needs for recovery and reconstruction in immediate, intermediate and medium terms.
The following section presents the summary of the findings.
The situation before the earthquake: Nepal was making significant progress in the overall health situation, with a maternal mortality ratio of 190 per 100,000 live births in 2013
1 and infant mortality rate of 46 per 1,000 live births in 20111 2. In 2011, life expectancy at birth was estimated to be 65.5 years for male and 67.9 years for...”
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“...disrupted services delivery, coordination with concerned agencies and stakeholders and management of increased case load for treatment including trauma cases.
Estimates of Damage and Loss: Total damage and loss due to the earthquake is estimated to be NPR 6.33 billion of which the public shares 84% rest being that in the private sector including NGO and Community owned service providers. While the value of damages is estimated to be 5.2 billion NPR, the estimate of losses is 1.1 billion NPR. Severely affected 14 districts account for around 88% (including 29% of central hospitals and health infrastructures) of the total value of damage and losses while other districts account for 11.4%. Gorkha, Sidhupalchowk and Dolakha are the hardest hit districts in terms effects of the earthquake sharing 22.4% of damages and losses, after the central level health infrastructure which alone account for 29% of damage and losses.
Table SI: Estimates of damages and losses Amount in million
Estimates of damages...”
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