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“...HIMALAYA, the Journal of the
Association for Nepal and
Himalayan Studies
Volume 37 | Number 2
Article 6
December 2017
Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty: Seismicity
and Hydropower Development in Nepal
Christopher Butler
University of California - Santa Cruz, cjbutler(3)ucsc.edu
Matthaus Rest
University of Munich, m.rest(3)lmu.de
Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya
Recommended Citation
Butler, Christopher and Rest, Matthaus (2017) "Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty: Seismicity and Hydropower Development in
Nepal," HIMALAYA, the Journal of the Association for Nepal and Himalayan Studies: Vol. 37 : No. 2, Article 6.
Available at: http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya/vol37/iss2/6
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Macalester College
This Research Article is brought to you for free and open access by the
DigitalCommons(2)Macalester College at DigitalCommons(2)Macalester
College. It has been accepted...”
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“...Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty: Seismicity and Hydropower
Development in Nepal
Acknowledgements
The authors thank Sienna Craig, Mark Turin, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on
this article. Research was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Humer Foundation for
Academic Talent and the European Research Council-funded project "Remoteness and Connectivity:
Highland Asia in the World.’
This research article is available in HIMALAYA, the Journal of the Association for Nepal and Himalayan Studies:
http:/ / digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya/vol37/iss2/6...”
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“...Calculating Risk, Denying Uncertainty:
Seismicity and Hydropower Development in Nepal
Christopher Butler
Matthaus Rest
If Ulrich Beck's definition of'risk society'
describes societies increasingly structured
by preoccupations with future environmental
threats and related insecurities created by
modernization, then Nepal's hydropower
community would appear to be quite the
opposite, propelled into environmental denial
by twin demands for domestic electricity and
revenue earned through hydroelectric export.
Our research reveals that prior to the April
2015 earthquake in Nepal, the hydropower
community was engaging in what Eviatar
Zerubavel calls 'socially organized denial'
largely ignoring the uncertainties associated
with seismic activity. Earthquakes and tremors
were viewed as unavoidable realities that
should not impede hydropower development.
This denial, we argue, was shaped not only
by local political realities and demand for
electricity, but also by a larger desire to
capitalize on...”
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“...off-line—a staggering blow for a country already contend-
ing with year-round load shedding, and needing reliable
energy to fuel its reconstruction efforts.
Given the country’s deep-seated aspirations for hydro-
power as a future pathway to development (Butler 2016;
Lord 2014; Rest 2012), analyses of the damage to existing
plants and those under construction quickly emerged.
The Nepal Electricity Authority reported that 150MW
(megawatts) of electricity generation had been lost in
the earthquake from a national portfolio of just 774MW
(Pangeni 2015), and that this loss represented an ‘acutely
small level of...capacity in a nation of 28 million people’
(Schneider 2015). Furthermore, several projects in devel-
opment were set back months and years due to road
devastation, project repair needs, and construction mate-
rials being diverted to other post-quake reconstruction
needs, such as shelters, roads, hospitals, and schools. “This
is a huge setback to Nepal,” Ram Siwakoti from Chilime
Hydropower...”
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“...In the afternoon, the head of an interest group speak-
ing for private hydro developers addressed the crowd,
stressing the need to create ‘bankable’ projects that would
appear ‘friendly’ to foreign companies and assure them
of profitable returns on investment. But the prospect of
improved electricity and infrastructure for Nepal, he said,
was only half the story. If Nepal could capitalize on its
6,000 rivers, hydro development could move the entire
country out of its ‘developing’ status, and, by virtue of free
markets, signal the fulfillment of the democratic principles
first pursued during the Jan Andolan movement in 1990.
His remarks were met with vigorous applause, and he con-
cluded his presentation with a quote ascribed to Confucius:
“Set the goal right, but if it can’t be reached, don’t adjust
the goal. Hasten the pace.”
The topic of risk—a specific type of risk—dominated the
proceedings. A morning roundtable on the financial via-
bility of hydropower projects discussed ‘acceptable...”
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“...this group regarding the earthquake potential. Discussions
about seismicity risks were rare, and, when discussed
at all, commonly bracketed as an uncontrollable neg-
ative externality that could not and should not deter
hydro development.
Caught Unawares?
The idea of the ‘Big One’ has been a long-running exis-
tential threat in Nepali discourse since the 8.0 magnitude
Nepal-Bihar earthquake in 1934 that killed an estimated
11,000 people. And the general seismicity of Nepal is also a
largely accepted truth, supported by the country’s various
policies, plans, and programs dedicated to disaster pre-
paredness and risk reduction. These include the Natural
Calamity Relief Act of 1982, the Nepal Risk Reduction
Consortium formed in 2009, and the Kathmandu Valley
Earthquake Risk Management Project. That the April 25
earthquake occurred on a Saturday likely saved thousands
of lives because school was not in session and that morning
many Nepali were outdoors enjoying the spring weather.
That the...”
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“...when compared with local industry
representatives, in our numerous conversations with some
of these multi-national actors.
These concerns and struggles voiced by the private sector
belie the fact that, as far as hydropower development is
concerned, the current moment is indeed a crucial one
for them. Growing disdain and impatience for govern-
ment ineptitude and public perceptions of its rent-seeking
behavior have placed significant political intentions and
support behind private interests and companies in order to
lead Nepali development in this century. For this reason,
understanding the private sector’s view of seismicity is
crucial because it holds significant favor and influence in
determining the manner and scope of debates about both
hydropower and development more generally. In today’s
discussions about what constitutes ‘risk,’ the private sector
is establishing a worldview in which risk is not about
natural factors, but is rather about economic ones, over
which they spin an illusion...”
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“...hydropower development. Therefore, discussions that
stray too far from this central argument tend to be few
and unexpressed.
Various groups within a debate, which occupy distinct
positions of power, have unequal access to move discus-
sions toward their guiding points of reference. Sutton and
Norgaard (2013) were correct to connect this element of
organized denial to Gramsci’s concept of hegemony (1971),
that dominant groups maintain their positions culturally
by securing collective consent to their ideas. This discus-
sion suggests that while hegemonic discourses are cultural
processes bound by perception, many forms of denial are
produced (and contested). Culturally prescribed norms
about how to think (or not think) about things reflect a
particularly insidious form of social control.
If socially organized denial is shaped in response to social
circumstance, Nepali hydropower’s version of denial
would be defined by the country’s long-standing and
frustrating attempts at development. Numerous...”
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“...about earthquakes, hydropower, and risk. But there is
more going on here than simple denial. At this particular
historical moment, as Nepal searches for development and
electricity, it is not enough that the hydro industry simply
goes about its work. It needs to sell a vision, a future, not
just for the average Nepali, but, more importantly, for
the finance needed to build these projects, and for the
government to help create more favorable conditions for
completing this work.
Private hydropower interests advance this vision through
a series of tropes about water as national destiny, hydro-
power as development, and the fulfillment of democratic
promise. To be successful, private hydropower has to
present a confident image of certain profit in order to
realize itself through foreign investment—whether from
private firms or development banks. They engage in what
Tsing calls the ‘economy of appearances.’ Promoting
hydropower as profitable and its associated risk as cal-
HIMALAYA Volume37...”
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“...reminiscent of Georg Simmel’s (2011:
482) insight about the monetization of value: “Gauging
values in terms of money has taught us to determine and
specify values down to the last farthing...The ideal of
numerical calculability has been made possible in practi-
cal, and perhaps even in intellectual, life only through the
money economy.”
These private sector machinations in support of finance
are possible due to a prevailing national discipline that
says development is necessary, and the government has
failed in its responsibility do deliver development. This
argument effectively produces a political quietude that
does not question risk and dismisses protest as the work of
rogue individuals rather than legitimate groups (Adhikari
2011), which then enables the state to draw in military
suppression of future protests without much comment
from the public. Hydropower becomes a tool of what Tsing
refers to as ‘spectacular accumulation,’ a means of creat-
ing ‘value’ through speculation and spectacle...”
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“...Adhikari, Prakash. 2011. 900MW Upper Karnali Project:
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HIMALAYA Volume37,Number2 25...”
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