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“...FOREIGN OFFICE.
1893.
MISCELLANEOUS SERIES.
W 305.
REPORTS ON SUBJECTS OF GENERAL AND
COMMERCIAL INTEREST.
CHINA
EFFECT OF THE FALL IN VALUE OF SILVER
ON PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN CHINA.
Issued during the Recess and Presented to both Houses of Parliament
by Comwand of Her Majesty.
LONDON:
PRINTED FOR HER MAJESTY'S STATIONERY OFFICE,
BY HAJRRISON AND SONS, ST. MARTIN'S LANE,
And to be purchased, either directly or through any Bookseller, from
EYEE & 6POTTISWOODE, East Harding Street, Fleet Street, E.C., and
32, Abingdon Street, Westminster, S.W.; or
JOHN MENZIES & Co., 12, Hanover Street, Edinburgh, and
90, West Nlle Street, Glasgow; or
HODGEB, FIGGIS, & Co., Limited, 104, Grafton Street, Dublin.
REPORT ON THE
printers in ordinary to he it majesty.
[C. 68565.".]...”
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“...2
China peculiarly well adapted for observing phenomena connected with
elver.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2
Fewer disturbing elements than elsewhere.. .. ,, .. ..3
Mode and cost of production of commodities unchanged .. .. .. 3
International trade equalises prices all over the world .. .. .. 3
2. Balance of trade since 1870 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4
Available data; customs; statistics of values of imports and exports;
certain corrections and additions required .. .. .. .. 4
Table showing value of imports and cxporls of each rear since 1865 .. 9
Remarks thereon .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 9
(1639) a 2...”
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“...following pages I propose to review the general
paper. trade between China and foreign countries during the last
23 years with a view to showing:
1. To what extent China has been an importer or exporter
of the precious metals since 1870.
2. What has been the effect of the fall in the value of silver
on prices of:
(a.) Articles of native origin commonly exported to foreign
countries.
(J.) Articles of native origin commonly produced for con-
sumption in China itself.
3. What has been the effect of the fall of silver in stimulat-
ng the volume of exports from China ?
Preliminary Observations.
China would seem to be peculiarly well situated for
observing phenomena connected with changes in the value
of the precious metals. There is a fair stock of both gold
and silver in the country. Neither is produced to any extent
at the present day within the country itself, but there is
perfect freedom of transport to and from foreign countries....”
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“...SHANGHAI,
3
There is no legislation in the country giving either metal a
preference over the other as a medium of exchange. By
common consent silver is so used, not, however, in the form of
national coins bearing a certain standard of value, but simply
by weight, as one commodity might be exchanged for another.
There is nothing to prevent gold being used in payment, if the
parties so desire, and if so used, it would be taken by weight.
The relative value of gold and silver changes day by day, and
closely follows the exchange on the London market.
The Government of China has not been a borrower in the
foreign market to any appreciable extent. Small loans have
been contracted from time to time, but at the present moment
they are nearly all paid off. There has never, therefore, been
any disturbance of values by the sudden augmentation of the
stock of the precious metals in the country, and whatever minor
effects the temporary borrowing may have had, have been
counteracted by the subsequent...”
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“...silk in London remaining coustant, the price of silk in
Shanghai is 1 dol. a pound below the London price. Com-
petition at once sets in, and the price in Shanghai is quickly
raised to 7 dol. Or suppose, again, that the price of a pound
of silk in London falls to 17s., while the gold value of silver
falls as before, so that the 17s. will produce in China approxi-
mately G dol. The price of silk in China will not be affected,
but the price of gold will. Gold, as a commodity, is then
15 per cent, cheaper in China than in London, and foreign
buyers will bid against one another so long as any holders can
be found willing to sell until equilibrium is restored.
It is thus evident that changes in the relative value of
gold and silver arising in Europe will, through the agency of
international commerce, immediately have their full effect in
the altered purchasing power of the two metals all the world
over, and in China no less than elsewhere; and in as much as,
for the reasons before stated, the...”
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“...out-valued the exports by
some 2,000,000/. per annum, and that, therefore, there has been
a constant outflow of the precious metals to that extent. This
is by no means the true state of facts, and a few brief explana-
tions are necessary to show what corrections and allowances
must be made.
In the first place, the values given in these returns are the Explanation
market values at the port of landing or shipment, as the case
may be. A moment's consideration will show that this is not Difference
the value at which the one sort of merchandise can be set off between
against the other, that is, the imports against the exports. valuea
Take, for instance, a consignment of Manchester goods arriving exchangeable
from England for sale by a local agent which fetches on the values,
market 10,000 taels. The whole of this sum is not available for Examples in
remittance to the owner in England. The local agent, before ^lu3tration-
he can put the goods on the market, has had to pay duty and
landing charges...”
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“...Description. Amount.
Taels.
Bought, say 500 piculs tea at 15 taels 7,500
Paid duty at 2-50 taels .. 1,250
350
Total .......... 9,100
The transaction is thus closed from an international point
of view; there is no balance to be remitted on either side. But
it is evident that it would be quite erroneous to represent, as
the customs returns do, that the double transaction meant that
imports to the value of 10,000 taels had come into the country
and exports to the value of 7,500 taels had left. What really
took place was an import of the value of 9,100 taels and an
export of an ideutical value.
Freights need It will be noticed that I have taken no note of freight out-
not be counted ward. This, though usually paid and charged by the exporting
on China's agent, does not really enter into the transaction, because if
partof cMt Paid by the shipper it has to be remitted by the agent of the
vessel to the shipowner; all ocean-going vessels being foreign
owned, and so comes to the same thing as...”
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“...Hong-Kong being a free port, no information as to the
values of junk cargoes was to be procured on that side. Con-
sequently it was impossible to form any accurate sort of esti-
mate as to the amount of this trade, or as to the proportions
which the imports bore to the exports. One thing, however,
was known, and that was that almost all the Indian opium con-
sumed in Southern China entered by these junks, and not
through the Foreign Customs. This alone made it quite certain
that a great deal more in value entered China by this means
than came out. It was estimated that from 15,000 to 18,000
chests of opium entered China in this way, which, at an average
cost in Hong-Kong of 350 taels per chest, made an indebted-
ness on the part of China and increased the national bill against
her by some 5,000,000 taels to 6,000,000 taels per annum.
In 1887 the control of the junk trade between Hong-Kong Allowance to
and the mainland was by international convention placed in *ne made on
the hands of the Maritime...”
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“...but I content myself here by merely
indicating them without attempting to strike a balance
between those that make for and those that make against
Here taken to China. I do so, firstly, because 1 have no data that can be
another 0ne en^re^y relied upon; and secondly, because, taking a rough
estimate, the one set of items may be considered as on the
whole a fair set-off against the other.
To the debit of China are the following:
1. Rents and profits from foreign capital invested in China.
The value of land alone within the foreign settlement of
Shanghai is estimated at about 20,000,000 taels, and the build-
ings thereon may be taken as worth half as much. This gives
a total of 30,000,000 taels, of which perhaps half is owned by
foreigners resident out of the country, mostly, of course, in
England. Taking interest on this at 6 per cent, to 7 per cent.,
we have an annual sum to be remitted of about 1,000,000 taels
on this head alone. The like profits from other ports would, of
course, swell...”
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“...s, &c., all of which, ultimately find their way
to China. This must be a very large item, and one which is
probably increasing.
It being, however, impossible, with our present information,
to strike any exact balance between these opposing accounts,
I leave them to stand against each other.
Allowing for the various corrections and additions in the Value of
manner I have indicated, the balance of trade between China imPor,ta *
and foreign countries presents itself as follows : ilej'881
Table of Imports into, and Exports from, China, during the
Years 1865-92, showing Balance for and against China
every Year.*
Tear. Value of Imports. Value of Exports. Balance in Favour of China. Balance Against China.
E. taels. H. taels. H. taels. H. taels.
1865 .. 55,861,000 60,161,000 4,300,000
1866 .. 66,352,000 56,280,000 10,072,000
1867 .. 61,930,000 58,167,000 , , 3,763,000
1868 .. 62,595,000 68,691,000 6,096,000
1869 .. 60,091,000 67,114,000 1,023,000
1870 .. 62,720,000 61,771,000 949,000...”
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“...-i
CHINA.
Value of tael
in gold has
been
continuously
decreasing.
Except for
short period
1879-84,
when it
remained
fairly steady.
Value of t \el
has not
influenced
balance.
Statistics of
movement of
bullion.
100,000,000 taels, of a sterling value of 30,000,000/. The value
of the tael fell in those 10 years continuously from 6s. 8d. in
1872, to 5s. 8d. in 1880.
3rd. During the period from 1881 to 1887, the imports and
exports again approximately balance, and from 1888 to date
there has been an adverse balance against China, amcmnting in
the aggregate to about 32,000,000 taels, aud indicating a
corresponding drain of one or other of the precious metals
from China. The value of the tael was approximately steady
from 1879 to 1884 at 5s. Id. From 1884 to 1892 it has fallen
continuously from 5s. Id. to 4s. 4d. It is thus impossible to
trace any direct relation between the value of the tael and the
proportion between imports and exports.
No sufficient data are obtainable for a reliable...”
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“...contrary
to what might reasonably have been expected in view of the
great fall in the price of silver, but the facts seem too strong to
admit of any other conclusion. Why it should be so I cannot
otherwise explain than by saying that the Chinese are re idy
and willing customers for our manufactures to the full extent
of their means, and even a little over. Their own exports have
grown fairly well, as will be seen by a reference to the fore*
going table, but their imports have fully kept pace. They
Value.
Currency. Sterling.
H. taels. £
Net export of gold for 9 years 27,959,000
Equivalent, at average exchange,
to.. .. 6,989,000
Met export of silver for 9 yeara 2,210,000
Equivalent to 552,000...”
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“...SHANGHAI,
Table C.
15
As regards Table A the result arrived at will not appear In internal
surprising. The only way, it would seem, in which foreign trade or the fluctuations of foreign exchanges can affect the greater or
internal prices, i.e., prices of articles which are not in demand supply of
for foreign trade, is by drawing away or bringing in one or silvrer-
other of the precious metals. If the result of foreign trade is to
cause a flow of silver into or out of the country the value or
the purchasing power of silver will tend to fall or rise as the
case may be, and so with gold. But, as we have seen, there
has been no great addition to the stock of silver in China
during the period under review, and consequently we ought not
to expect a general rise in prices. The fluctuations which we
find in the prices of commodities in Table A can, indeed, be
shown to coincide closely with the greater or less supply of
silver. From 1870 to 1880 there was a continuous favourable
balance of trade...”
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“...exports
from China, an answer has in effect been supplied by the fore-
going remarks. There has been a stimulus, but not such a
stimulus as might have been expected. The stimulus has been
a readiness on the part of foreign merchants to buy native
produce of all sorts at current quotations, but not the stimulus
which comes from offering higher prices.
Such as it is, however, it has developed the exports very
considerably, especially within the last few years. In 1872 the
exports of China stood in value approximately as follows:...”
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“...SHANGHAI,
17
Articles. Value.
Silk and Bilk products Tea, all kinds Miscellaneous.. IT. taels. 26,000,000 38,000,000 7,000,000
In 1892 the figures were
Article5. Value.
Silk and silk products Tea, all kinds.. Miscellaneous.. H. taels. 38,292,000 25,983,000 38,308,000
Comparative
values of
exporls,
1872-92.
The following table indicates in some detail the particular
lines in which the general exports from China have developed.
The prices of these articles will be found in Tables A and B.
Tea has always figured so prominently as one of the Tea.
products of China that it could not be omitted from any list of
exports, but the causes operating of late years to affect both
its price and the volume of the export have been so exceptional
that it ought not, perhaps, to be included in a table from which
it is sought to draw general conclusions. As will be seen, both Subject to
the price and the quantity have fallen off very much, owing, cmpetitio
of course, to the Indian competition....”
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“...grow very fast, but as things are, I do not look for any very
rapid expansion.
It follows, therefore, that it is impossible to expect that
China will, under present circumstances, become a great
consumer of silver.
The conditions of the last few years which have made China
an absolute exporter of silver are doubtless abnormal. Under
ordinary circumstances China ought to be an importer, but of
course she cannot get silver unless she gives value for it in some
form or other. Her power of absorbing silver is measured by
the difference between the value of her exports and imports,
and unless the former outvalue the latter, there is nothing left
for her tu receive. I see no reason to suppose that China will,
until things are greatly altered, take the place of India as an
absorber of silver....”
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“...20
CHINA.
3. The fall in the price of silver has stimulated exports by
making it possible for foreign merchants to purchase and export
at a profit a large variety of miscellaneous articles which
formerly would have yielded no return at all. The value of
such miscellaneous articles has quadrupled within the last ten
years. Tea has declined very largely both in volume and
price, but for this there are no special reasons. Raw silk of
best quality has increased somewhat in volume, but not in
price. There has been a great increase in the quantity of waste
and refuse silk exported, but the price has somewhat declined.
A continued growth in the exports of China is to be
expected, but under present conditions it cannot attain to great
dimensions. As the capability of China to absorb silver depends
upon the excess of her exports over her imports, there is no
reason to expect that China will, within the next few years at
all events, take much silver off the European market....”
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