Beyond Ideologies

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The China Debate 2017: Beyond Ideologies SOAS University of London Published on May 24, 201 7 the Global Environmental Crisis" was held at the SOAS China Institute o n 11 May 201 7 place in the global efforts to confront the environmental challenges. This takes on new only remaining superpower, Donald Trump, is sceptical of climate change and unwilling to take a leading role in the search for solutions. If all eyes are not yet on China, they may well do in the coming few years. China probably suffers more from enviro nmental challenges than any other country at and one gets a sense of the magnitude of the problem. The scale and intensity of the challenges are now widely recognized, and i ts government and people are focused on the need to confront them. It is therefore no wonder that China is not only the largest consumer of fossil fuel and emitter of greenhouse gases but also a leading investor in and producer of sustainable energy. China between growth on the one hand and sustainability on the other. What has happened in China is not exceptional in an important sense. I general terms Europe, North America and Japan went through the same path decades up in development are next in line. We now know this path is not sustainable. A better alternative must be found. It can only be found i f countries of different ideological persuasion, political system and stage of development leave their differences behind and work pragmatically together. China to enable us reflect on what the key issues are in confronting environment challenges, hopefully in a more pre emptive way. No doubt some of the issues that apply in China are specific but most are common problems that any government striving to end poverty of its p eople through rapid development needs to confront. By discussing and debating the case of China, wider lessons can be drawn as the world looks to make sustainable development a reality rather than tolerate it as an oxymoron. Panellists include Moderator Isabel Hilton (Chinadialogue), Tom Burke (Co founding Director and Chairman, E3G London Office), Pransenjit Duara (Oscar Tang Chair of East Asian Studies, Duke University), Shuo Li (Greenpeace, Beijing), and Jennifer Turner (Director, China Environment F orum at the Woodrow Wilson Center) Category Education License Creative Commons Attribution license (reuse allowed)

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Transcript This transcript was generated by a machine process and may contain errors. 0:1 8 ......... well good evening ladies and gentlemen i 0:2 3 ......... am S teve S ang I am the director of 0:2 5 ......... office OS China Institute first of all 0:3 0 ......... let me welcome you very warmly on behalf 0:3 4 ......... of source to the China debate 2017 on 0:3 9 ......... the subject of beyond ideologies China's 0:4 2 ......... experience in confronting the global 0:4 5 ......... environmental crisis 0:4 7 ......... thi s year's China debate is generously 0:5 1 ......... supported by China ever bright 0:5 4 ......... international to which I thank on behalf 0:5 7 ......... of Soros the environmental challenges 1:0 2 ......... that we face today 1:0 4 ......... Gobbo according to a 2015 study by the 1:0 8 ......... University of Ca lifornia Davis believe 1:1 2 ......... it or not about 10 percent of the air 1:1 5 ......... pollution in California's Central Valley 1:1 9 ......... originated from Asia of which China is 1:2 4 ......... perhaps a leading contributor I think at 1:3 0 ......... the moment China leads the world as a 1:3 3 ......... polluter but it also leads the world in 1:3 6 ......... investing in and in producing 1:3 9 ......... sustainable energy how China can funds 1:4 4 ......... the global environmental challenges is 1:4 7 ......... therefore a matter of crucial importance 1:4 9 ......... to all inhabited inhabitants of this 1:5 2 ......... amazing planet and that is why the 1:5 6 ......... source China Institute has chosen this 1:5 9 ......... subject for this debate today it's 2:0 2 ......... important to China it's important to the 2:0 5 ......... world it is therefore important to 2:0 8 ......... source but for a debate I will leav e it 2:1 2 ......... to the chair to introduce where you say 2:1 6 ......... formats that will engage with the 2:1 8 ......... panelists 2:1 8 ......... it will also engage you members of the 2:2 1 ......... audience and I'm very pleased to present 2:2 5 ......... to you a very distinguished and 2:2 7 ......... insightful pa nelled who will bring 2:3 0 ......... experience in from different 2:3 2 ......... perspectives the chair for this evening 2:3 5 ......... for this panel debate is about Tilton's 2:3 9 ......... ope she's first and foremost a research 2:4 4 ......... associate at the Center for 2:4 5 ......... International Studies and diplomacy and 2:4 8 ......... sourced I thought Isabelle was expecting

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2:5 2 ......... something else well she is of course 2:5 6 ......... also as you know the founder and CEO of 2:5 9 ......... China dialogue and independent and 3:0 3 ......... roaming focused nonprofit organizations 3:0 6 ......... which op erate out of London Beijing 3:0 8 ......... daily and subpolar she's authored and 3:1 2 ......... co authored several books and she holds 3:1 5 ......... honorary doctorates from Bradford and 3:1 7 ......... Sterling universities sitting to 3:2 1 ......... Isabelle's 3:2 3 ......... left is Shirley Shaw is the seni or 3:3 1 ......... global policy adviser for Greenpeace 3:3 3 ......... East Asia is based in Beijing he directs 3:3 7 ......... Greenpeace China's climate and ocean 3:4 0 ......... campaigns with particular focus on coal 3:4 3 ......... air pollution renewable energy and the 3:4 7 ......... fishery sector internat ionally she 3:5 1 ......... coordinates the organization's 3:5 4 ......... engagement with the United Nations 3:5 6 ......... climate negotiations he was also an act 4:0 0 ......... under bond Homburg fellows in Berlin in 4:04 ......... 2015 next to short is Professor 4:1 2 ......... presented doula oh sorry about 4:2 1 ......... I think we have no that's not whatever 4:2 6 ......... sitting next to Shaw is Tom Burke and 4:3 0 ......... Tom is determined of EVG the third 4:3 4 ......... generation environmentalism if a 4:3 6 ......... visiting professor at both imperial 4:3 8 ......... college and UCL is a member of the 4: 4 1 ......... external review committee of shell and 4:4 4 ......... the sustainable sourcing advisory board 4:4 6 ......... of union labor and the trustee of black 4:5 0 ......... e community arts project in liverpool 4:5 3 ......... sitting on the right hand side of is 4:5 7 ......... about is Jennifer Turner silv er is the 5:0 7 ......... director of the China environment forum 5:0 9 ......... at the Woodrow Wilson Center in 5:1 2 ......... Washington her work has focused on the 5:1 5 ......... variety of energy and environmental 5:1 6 ......... challenges facing China particularly on 5:1 9 ......... water energy and green civil society 5:2 2 ......... issues she also serves as the editor of 5:2 6 ......... the Wilson Center's journal the China 5:3 0 ......... environment series and she most recently 5:3 4 ......... co authored China's water energy food 5:3 8 ......... role map sitting to the further right of 5:4 4 ......... jennifer is professor presented Dora 5:5 0 ......... about your puzzle area he is the Oscar 5:5 6 ......... Tang professor of East Asian Studies at 5:5 9 ......... Duke University born and educated in

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6:0 2 ......... India he also received his PhD from 6:0 5 ......... Harvard and was previously professor of 6:0 7 ......... history and his Asian Studies at the 6:1 0 ......... University of Chicago and the Raffles 6:1 2 ......... professor and director of Asian Research 6:1 5 ......... Institute at the National University of 6:1 8 ......... Singapore his latest book is the crisis 6:2 2 ......... of cocoa Maternity Asian trad itions and 6:2 5 ......... a sustainable future 6:2 9 ......... now before I hand over to Isabel may I 6:3 2 ......... ask you 6:3 4 ......... switch your mobile to silence moe 6:3 7 ......... there's no need to turn it off 6:4 0 ......... indeed you are encouraged to pose on 6:4 4 ......... social media I think the hashtag for 6:4 9 ......... Twitter is on the screen right now and 6:5 3 ......... if you are not a member of a university 6:5 7 ......... and therefore not automatically 6:5 8 ......... connected to the educational roaming 7:0 2 ......... network you can use the gas Wi Fi 7:0 6 ......... network the source case 100 work c an 7:1 0 ......... sometimes be slightly temperamental so 7:1 4 ......... if it doesn't work immediately please 7:1 6 ......... don't give up just try again thank you 7:1 8 ......... very much over to you it's really very 7:2 9 ......... special to be in so us and thank you 7:3 2 ......... very much for the invitat ion to to you 7:3 4 ......... to the panel and see fit like my 7:3 7 ......... secondary role after being Associate 7:3 9 ......... Fellow at the third is China dialogue 7:4 3 ......... where we publish all the time on 7:4 6 ......... Environment and climate change and have 7:4 8 ......... for more than 10 years no w and in that 7:5 1 ......... 10 years I think that the the narrative 7:5 4 ......... the predominant predominant story about 7:5 6 ......... about China and the environment was 7:5 8 ......... always you know dirty China building a 8:0 1 ......... coal plant away you know 15 minutes that 8:0 3 ......... kind of th ing 8:0 5 ......... China on the board of the the edge of 8:0 8 ......... environmental collapse and polluting you 8:1 0 ......... know biggest emitter of greenhouse gases 8:1 3 ......... and so on and well that is certainly 8:1 6 ......... true 8:1 6 ......... coming up on the rails in recent years 8:1 9 ......... there has been another narrative which 8:2 0 ......... is green china clean china china turning 8:2 5 ......... this great tanker around and among the 8:2 7 ......... questions that we China dialogue get 8:2 9 ......... asked quite a lot is so which is it

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8:3 2 ......... what can we believe how much of it is 8:3 5 ......... green wash and I think that it's a great 8:3 8 ......... pleasure actually being having been 8:4 0 ......... asked these questions to ask those who 8:4 2 ......... know much more than we do as all these 8:4 6 ......... panelists do 8:4 7 ......... but the depth and the degree and the 8:5 0 ......... desirability p erhaps of Chinese 8:5 2 ......... leadership so this is an interactive 8:5 6 ......... discussion we have some questions 8:5 9 ......... already from you when we go to the 9:0 2 ......... questions please wait for the microphone 9:0 3 ......... and if further questions occurs you as 9:0 6 ......... we speak please let me know but I'm 9:0 9 ......... going to start off with the panel I by 9:1 2 ......... putting to them the proposition that 9:1 3 ......... China after decades of collusion and 9:1 7 ......... being the bad boy is now a green leader 9:1 9 ......... true or false 9:2 1 ......... Jennifer oh you were supposed to get a 9:2 3 ......... lead role just because she knows I am 9:2 6 ......... indeed hard work very I'm a very 9:2 8 ......... positive person I've been working on 9:3 0 ......... China energy environmental issues for 1 8 9:3 2 ......... years I am still smiling so and I think 9:3 6 ......... that but but again when yo u talk but 9:3 7 ......... your question is sneaky because you said 9:3 9 ......... can it be a leader yeah they are so Ken 9:4 2 ......... trying to be a leader on and let's just 9:4 4 ......... look at the pollution issue and I would 9:4 6 ......... have to say no China is not a leader on 9:4 9 ......... the poll ution issue which doesn't mean 9:5 0 ......... I'm not optimistic because the change 9:5 1 ......... that I've seen I mean 18 years watching 9:5 4 ......... the increased interaction with China 9:5 7 ......... with us and I know European NGOs and 10:0 1 ....... think tanks and and and really making 10: 0 3 ....... lots of changes I mean the number of 10:0 5 ....... laws and regulations that you know have 10:0 7 ....... increased they stayed on the book for 10:0 9 ....... the longest time cite anecdotally 10:1 1 ....... remember years ago you des you'd say the 10:1 3 ....... taxi driver are the air poll ution is so 10:1 5 ....... bad they say it's fog like it's 10:1 7 ....... pollution it's fog right but now what 10:2 0 ....... happens when you ask your taxi driver 10:2 1 ....... the question they say the PM 2.5 levels 10:2 4 ....... today are and give you a number and they 10:2 7 ....... say they wax poetic about the importance 10:2 9 ....... of a low carbon economy so that there

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10:3 2 ....... has been a shift and I don't think 10:3 4 ....... that's not saying there's a leader yet 10:3 6 ....... and that because there are a lot of 10:3 8 ....... institutions that are put in place that 10:4 0 ....... you have these open information 10:4 2 ....... requirements public participation 10:4 4 ....... requirements and sometimes they work 10:4 6 ....... sometimes they don't but it's being 10:4 8 ....... talked about and I think that that you 10:4 9 ....... know my optimism comes with that I mean 10:5 2 ....... I'm not worried about trying to be in 10:5 3 ....... the leader on pollution but I just want 10:5 5 ....... them to deal with it but then on the 10:5 7 ....... question of the climate leadership I 10:5 9 ....... think there it's a mixed bag 11:0 1 ....... because you may be recognized from my 11:0 3 ....... voice I'm from the United States right 11:0 5 ....... and we were until recently cooperating 11:0 8 ....... very intensive filly with China on 11:1 0 ....... climate issues but it hasn't just been 11:1 2 ....... climate I mean for the past 40 years 11:1 4 ....... US government NGOs re searchers think 11:1 6 ....... tanks have really dug deep in working 11:1 9 ....... with Chinese partners and I think in 11:2 1 ....... some ways iam our fingerprints aren't on 11:2 3 ....... Las Olas UK similar organizations but 11:2 6 ....... now you know you know when the US and 11:2 8 ....... China came together for climate 11:3 0 ....... cooperation I think together there was 11:3 2 ....... the beginnings of leadership and right 11:3 4 ....... now I'm not sure so I'm going to punt 11:3 5 ....... that climate leadership questions I 11:3 7 ....... could not that's a yes it's a yes fish 11: 3 9 ....... if it was I think you know it's like a 11:4 1 ....... myth the US China you know same bad same 11:4 4 ....... dreams now that together we became 11:4 7 ....... leaders bringing climate and now that 11:5 0 ....... we've saved America we've kind of we 11:5 2 ....... wandered off we'll just leav e it we can 11:54 ....... talk about that in the discussion and so 11:5 6 ....... we're you know what does that mean for 11:5 8 ....... China you know I think China made us 12:0 0 ....... better on the climate issue and vice 12:0 2 ....... versa but I think lead role he's going 12:0 4 ....... and throu ghout the course of the 12:0 6 ....... discussion this evening I think we're 12:0 7 ....... going to try to dig a little deeper into 12:0 8 ....... what would we mean by leadership at 12:1 0 ....... least well torval sure let me I mean at 12:1 5 ....... all so let me let me also thank Steve

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12: 1 9 ....... and so as for the fucking imitation 12:2 1 ....... introduction well I'll try to be a 12:2 4 ....... little bit academic let me let me just 12:2 6 ....... try to define the term leadership first 12:2 8 ....... since we're in the in the university I 12:3 0 ....... think and indeed I mean the l eadership 12:3 3 ....... sort of one of the very fluffy term I 12:3 6 ....... think to different people we might mean 12:3 7 ....... different things but you know so my way 12:4 0 ....... of unpacking the concept of leadership 12:4 3 ....... in particular when it comes to climate 12:4 5 ....... leadersh ip I think there is sort of the 12:4 7 ....... climate leadership on the real economy 12:4 9 ....... side you know in the sense that china is 12:5 2 ....... opening up and reform its its economic 12:5 4 ....... system it's moving away gradually from 12:5 6 ....... the energy intensive resource i ntensive 12:5 8 ....... economy and I am in that regard 13:0 1 ....... on that front on China has indeed made a 13:0 4 ....... lot of progress over the past few years 13:0 6 ....... the other side of leadership I think 13:0 8 ....... could be character and you know 13:0 9 ....... characterized as politi cal or diplomatic 13:1 1 ....... leadership on climate is a global issue 13:1 4 ....... so 13:1 5 ....... there's a lot of political and duty and 13:1 7 ....... politics and diplomacy involved and I 13:2 2 ....... think when it comes to you know 13:2 4 ....... leadership in the political world 13:2 5 ....... di plomatic sense china has also you know 13:2 8 ....... made a lot of progress over the past few 13:3 0 ....... years if we recall back not too long ago 13:3 3 ....... you know just to 2009 China was one of 13:3 5 ....... the you know bad boys um you know that 13:3 7 ....... you know contributed t o the failure 13:4 0 ....... catastrophic failure of the Copenhagen 13:4 3 ....... climate I mean and I think over the past 13:4 5 ....... on three to four years the perception uh 13:4 9 ....... you know has been has been transformed 13:5 3 ....... in in a quite significant and dramatic 13:5 5 ....... m anner and I think that's definitely got 13:5 9 ....... a accelerated by the us china climate 14:0 2 ....... cooperation you know starting from 201 3 14:0 4 ....... the two presidents you know got together 14:0 7 ....... you know they are great in sunny land 14:0 9 ....... back then to work on HFC one of the most 14:1 2 ....... powerful greenhouse gases followed by in 14:1 5 ....... in 2014 the two countries released the 14:1 9 ....... key elements of their you know future 14:2 0 ....... climate plans and then they also help to

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14:2 3 ....... unlock the Paris agreement so I would 14:2 6 ....... s ay you know on the political and the 14:2 9 ....... diplomatic side my answer would also be 14:3 2 ....... yes um but I think the real question now 14:3 5 ....... you know after the US election is how 14:3 8 ....... far can China go right even the US 14:4 1 ....... political situation I think th at's 14:4 3 ....... that's going to be a true test to both 14:4 6 ....... the political wilderness and the 14:4 8 ....... diplomatic capability of China I can see 14:5 1 ....... some some hope and some potential I 14:5 3 ....... think the Davos speech that the Chinese 14:5 6 ....... President gave was a pretty good 14:5 8 ....... indication of his resolve to work on 15:0 1 ....... furthering that on you know in this area 15:0 4 ....... on China has also made some further you 15:0 7 ....... know comments and statements in this 15:1 0 ....... regard which i think is quite helpful 15:1 2 ....... but I th ink you know we also need to 15:1 4 ....... realize the caveat as well and I think 15:1 7 ....... there may be you know just very quickly 15:1 8 ....... three of them one is you know how far 15:2 2 ....... the economic reform could go I think to 15:2 6 ....... a large extent the 15:2 8 ....... climate l eadership offered by China over 15:3 0 ....... the past few years was rested on the 15:3 4 ....... economic 101 you know Chinese shifting 15:3 6 ....... away from coal which is 80% of its 15:3 8 ....... emission and the coal consumption is 15:4 1 ....... almost three year declining trajectory 1 5:4 3 ....... so to what extent that economic point 15:4 6 ....... will continue so that would be my first 15:4 8 ....... caveat and then what will be the U S 15:5 1 ....... situation you know like it or not the 15:5 4 ....... U S is still the number one economy in 15:5 7 ....... the world 15:5 7 ....... and w hat happens there have an impact on 16:0 1 ....... Beijing and then cavea number three we 16:0 5 ....... are also in a leadership transition year 16:0 7 ....... this year we will have an item's Party 16:1 0 ....... conference you know by the end of this 16:1 2 ....... year and a lot of key posit ions 16:1 3 ....... mini tutorial or even higher will be 16:1 6 ....... will be shifted what will be the new 16:1 8 ....... team's position and view when it comes 16:2 1 ....... to international climate diplomacy so 16:2 4 ....... I'll just offer the three copies as my 16:2 6 ....... conclusion here tha nk you so Tom you 16:2 9 ....... have watched this space for many years 16:3 3 ....... environment climate change from from

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16:3 6 ....... your position do you see China asserting 16:3 9 ....... leadership at this point no I think 16:4 3 ....... China is on some issues trying to meet 16:4 7 ....... the challenges and other issues not 16:4 9 ....... trying at all so I think there's a 16:5 1 ....... simple question even on efforts and 16:5 4 ....... that's a long way from leadership I 16:5 7 ....... think it's important to think of the 16:5 9 ....... environment as a spectrum of issues that 17: 0 1 ....... ranges from our air quality water 17:0 5 ....... quality through biodiversity out into 17:0 8 ....... climate change and other disturbances of 17:1 0 ....... major ecological cycles and China 17:1 5 ....... clearly addressing beginning to address 17:1 7 ....... quite seriously 17:1 8 ....... air qual ity not that I can see yet 17:2 2 ....... really making a serious effort to 17:2 4 ....... address on water quality biodiversity 17:2 8 ....... not a big issue China 17:3 0 ....... pretty reliant on ocean fisheries are 17:3 5 ....... for a supply of important supply of 17:3 8 ....... seafood not observa bly a leader in the 17:4 2 ....... to control our fisheries so I think 17:4 4 ....... quite a a mixed our picture there I 17:4 9 ....... think there's a much more significant 17:5 1 ....... point China had better become a leader 17:5 5 ....... on environmental issues because it is 17:5 8 ....... the mos t exposed or stability in China 18:0 3 ....... is the most exposed whether it's to the 18:0 6 ....... local issues like air quality that 18:0 8 ....... become a focus for civil society and 18:1 1 ....... civil actions or whether it's on the 18:1 4 ....... very big issues like climate change 18: 1 6 ....... because the Chinese economy stability in 18:1 9 ....... China is at risk if it doesn't become a 18:2 3 ....... leader so that's the important thing if 18:2 6 ....... you think of it very simply if you in 18:3 0 ....... order to maintain the party's hegemony 18:3 2 ....... it had better mainta in internal 18:3 5 ....... stability if you can't maintain food 18:3 8 ....... energy and water security you can't 18:4 1 ....... maintain internal stability if you can't 18:4 6 ....... maintain climate security then there is 18:4 9 ....... no way you can maintain food energy and 18:5 2 ....... water se curity in order to maintain 18:5 4 ....... climate security China needs the rest of 18:5 8 ....... the world to perform it can't do it on 19:0 1 ....... its own with all the financial military 19:0 3 ....... and other resources it has it needs to 19:0 6 ....... engage the rest of the world and t o do

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19:0 9 ....... that it has to be able to lead but if 19:1 1 ....... it's going to lead then its behavior at 19:1 3 ....... home and its behavior abroad must 19:1 6 ....... display a level of consistency that's 19:1 9 ....... not yet apparent yes question of 19:2 4 ....... leadership well I'm going to be a 19:2 7 ....... classic academic and say yes and no but 19:3 0 ....... there is a there is a there's a logic 19:3 3 ....... which I hope will emerge at the end of 19:3 5 ....... my comment so yes I want to focus on 19:4 0 ....... environmental governance within China 19:4 3 ....... for the time b eing and here we have a 19:4 6 ....... very interesting contradictory situation 19:5 1 ....... one which I think most 19:5 3 ....... most people know that the central 19:5 5 ....... government is in fact presents itself as 19:5 9 ....... the representative of ecological 20:0 1 ....... civilization and i t's 13th clan is doing 20:0 3 ....... all this stuff with renewable energy 20:0 6 ....... cleaning pollution air pollution and 20:0 8 ....... things like that but of course there is 20:1 1 ....... the problem of what messages the local 20:1 4 ....... are the local governance is getting and 20:1 9 ....... I think it has it sort of began there's 20:2 4 ....... a paradox here it's like a good cop bad 20:2 6 ....... cop situation to use an Americanism ah 20:3 0 ....... there is a it did not start willfully 20:3 5 ....... the central government was representing 20:3 8 ....... itself not only as the close 20:4 1 ....... representative of ecological 20:4 3 ....... civilization but also one who cared for 20:4 7 ....... the poor in the rural areas and so on 20:4 9 ....... and it abolished and cultural taxes well 20:5 3 ....... that meant and all other local taxes 20:5 6 ....... that sort of gained it a lot of favor 20:5 8 ....... but at the same time the local 21:0 1 ....... government which was burdened with more 21:0 3 ....... responsibilities had no way to finance 21:0 6 ....... itself so it were forced to become the 21:0 8 ....... bad guy and so there's this paradox 21:1 1 ....... that's going on and it I think has 21:1 5 ....... related to the kind of gigantism that 21:1 9 ....... was always at the core of the Chinese 21:2 3 ....... state the Imperial state we know about 21:2 5 ....... the water control and the Grand Canal 21:2 9 ....... and things and reinforced by modern 21:3 3 ....... soc ialist and American ideals of 21:3 6 ....... gigantism and it goes on in that vein 21:3 9 ....... we're talking about dam buildings and 21:4 1 ....... and south north water diversion and

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21:4 4 ....... things like that but it does not soak 21:4 8 ....... the way I see this paradox or this 21:5 1 ....... contradiction really in Mao's terms 21:5 3 ....... playing out is that the central 21:5 7 ....... government has developed a constituency 22:0 0 ....... among of course big corporations Chinese 22:0 5 ....... corporation 22:0 6 ....... among the biggest in the world now 22:0 7 ....... hydropower corpor ations the urban middle 22:1 1 ....... classes who are very concerned with 22:1 4 ....... pollution but it has effectively kicked 22:1 7 ....... the can to the more hinterland areas to 22:2 1 ....... the less visible areas now Chinese civil 22:2 4 ....... society has been allowed to develop and 22:2 6 ....... it has developed quite well in many ways 22:3 0 ....... and there is a lot of judicial activism 22:3 2 ....... not a lot some judicial activism that 22:3 6 ....... gives them some hope and but the main 22:4 1 ....... ways they're watchdogs they're not they 22:4 3 ....... cannot be more th an watchdogs and they 22:4 6 ....... can bring the media but then and and the 22:4 9 ....... locals do in fact want to bring in the 22:5 5 ....... media but and the local government does 22:5 7 ....... get scared when the media comes in but 22:5 9 ....... you can't do that that cannot be the 23 :0 2 ....... full full fledged strategy as it were 23:0 5 ....... for doing this so it has to become 23:0 8 ....... developed more of a responsibility 23:1 1 ....... towards the other kinds of pollution 23:1 4 ....... other than air pollution and energy and 23:1 7 ....... fossil fuel emissions that have actually 23:2 1 ....... ravaged the countryside and since the 23:2 4 ....... TV s and now with intensive and culture 23:2 6 ....... and other kinds of problems 23:2 9 ....... so something there has to happen and 23:3 2 ....... interestingly we can see that there has 23:3 4 ....... been a growing force of civil society 23:3 6 ....... but here is where the International 23:3 8 ....... thing comes in because once again China 23:4 0 ....... I think can play a leadership role in 23:4 3 ....... the issue of renewable energy and so on 23:4 6 ....... which it has been so much money although 23:4 8 ....... ther e are some contradictions there 23:5 0 ....... they're still all these coal plants but 23:5 3 ....... but at the same time what is happening 23:5 6 ....... is that many of the Chinese projects 23:5 8 ....... abroad whether in Southeast Asia in East 24:0 1 ....... Africa in Latin America are in f act 24:0 4 ....... being I mean there is a push back in a 24:0 8 ....... lot of cases I think one of the most

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24:0 9 ....... interesting is Kenya in in recent times 24:1 3 ....... and so I would say that this kind of 24:1 5 ....... pushback and the 24:1 7 ....... interesting thing and yes the optimistic 24:1 9 ....... the yes but is that the Chinese 24:2 1 ....... corporations and the government are 24:2 3 ....... responding in many ways to these social 24:2 7 ....... pressures bringing in in Pakistan for 24:2 9 ....... instance the we can talk about this 24:3 2 ....... perhaps later am i overdoing my time so 24:3 4 ....... that's the part that I don't think that 24:3 6 ....... international civil society and in 24:3 9 ....... trance and intergovernmental pressures 24:4 2 ....... are having an effect and that may be an 24:4 5 ....... interesting way in which the Chinese 24:4 7 ....... government doe s improve its record okay 24:5 0 ....... so we seem to have fairly divergent 24:5 2 ....... views about the depth of commitment and 24:5 5 ....... what the drivers are which I want to 24:5 7 ....... explore but before I do that if China if 25:0 0 ....... we do declare China a green leader at 25 :0 2 ....... this point how many of you think this 25:0 5 ....... would be a good thing if you think it's 25:0 7 ....... good and bad you can have both hands the 25:0 8 ....... way present leaders but just 25:1 1 ....... give us an idea of how many of you would 25:1 3 ....... welcome this development 2 5:1 5 ....... okay so there's certain how many of you 25:1 8 ....... would not just in case this pushback not 25:2 1 ....... a lot okay interesting to see that some 25:2 3 ....... people wouldn't but that's great so then 25:2 7 ....... we will I guess want to know how deep 25:3 0 ....... this is and then we want to start 25:3 2 ....... picking apart some of the drivers so 25:3 5 ....... we've heard the proposition that for 25:3 8 ....... instance the central government is 25:4 0 ....... willing the ends but not the means you 25:4 2 ....... know by cutting taxes for poverty 25:4 4 ....... reasons and th erefore forcing local 25:4 7 ....... authorities into high carbon growth or 25:4 9 ....... dirty growth we've had concerns about 25:5 3 ....... about politics about people being fed up 25:5 6 ....... with air pollution and that's alright 25:5 9 ....... but it's not really a kind of profound 26: 0 1 ....... conviction is there much else going on 26:0 3 ....... here visual well I think you know I I 26:0 8 ....... think I'm maybe just to pick up on under 26:1 1 ....... under two points that you just made I 26:1 3 ....... think one interesting thing in at least 26:1 6 ....... for me you know what n ot as a

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26:1 8 ....... practitioner in China in this field um 26:2 0 ....... is the degree to which you know how this 26:2 4 ....... is this area this field in terms of 26:2 7 ....... protection sort of reflects Oh 26:3 1 ....... the various socio economic challenges 26:3 3 ....... that China is to deal with in this 26:3 6 ....... development so central local tension the 26:3 9 ....... lack of resource the the sheer scale of 26:4 2 ....... opportunities and challenges right and 26:4 5 ....... then when it comes to international 26:4 7 ....... diplomacy international leadership I 26:4 9 ....... think i t's pretty fair to say that 26:5 1 ....... climate change is actually at a very 26:5 3 ....... forefront of China's you know foreign 26:5 6 ....... policy transformation the country was I 26:5 9 ....... mean is relatively a late comer to the 27:0 2 ....... International Society right and you kno w 27:0 5 ....... I wouldn't I mean if there's a UN 27:0 6 ....... meeting 40 years ago there won't be any 27:0 8 ....... Chinese diplomat out and II wouldn't say 27:1 1 ....... it yeah I mean that was just a short 27:14 ....... four decades ago right so now you know 27:1 8 ....... the country is not on ly embracing on the 27:2 1 ....... international system but is also trying 27:2 3 ....... to shape the system in its own way so I 27:2 6 ....... I mean I you know it's not a sort of 27:2 9 ....... perfect work work work on recent 27:3 1 ....... comprehensive answer to your question 27:3 3 ....... but I' m just trying to flag data you 27:3 6 ....... know a lot of the the the challenges 27:3 9 ....... opportunities in China's development 27:4 0 ....... tend to be a sand board in this 27:4 2 ....... particular field so that's quite 27:4 4 ....... interesting drop the drivers yes 27:4 8 ....... I mean I'm because because if it is only 27:5 1 ....... a reaction to political discontent one 27:5 4 ....... might argue that if discontent arises 27:5 6 ....... over a different issue then then the 27:58 ....... green stuff will go on the back on the 28:0 0 ....... back burner again well but the 28:0 2 ....... environment mean when you when you look 28:0 3 ....... at polls out there I mean the Chinese 28:0 5 ....... public is is incredibly concerned about 28:0 8 ....... the air they breathe the food they eat 28:0 9 ....... the water it's all all interlinked and 28:1 2 ....... and so the one formal leg itimacy that 28:1 4 ....... the Communist Party has in China is 28:1 6 ....... economic growth and now it's very clear 28:1 8 ....... that the level of pollution is is 28:2 1 ....... threatening that growth but it's but

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28:2 4 ....... it's not all negative keep in mind you I 28:2 5 ....... mentioned bri efly in my opening remarks 28:2 7 ....... that a lot of international NGOs think 28:3 1 ....... tanks and and you know in the World Bank 28:3 3 ....... guys to do they have been engaging in 28:3 5 ....... China for you know the and there's the 28:3 7 ....... Chinese government eel starting with 28:3 8 ....... done shopping open his arms you know 28:3 9 ....... come help us because they knew that you 28:4 1 ....... know they would you know what was going 28:4 3 ....... to hit the fan 28:4 4 ....... eventually was as live with their 28:4 5 ....... development model and there had been for 28:4 7 ....... a long time it's been very exciting in 28:4 9 ....... my job about the political spaces 28:5 0 ....... existed for Chinese environmental NGOs 28:5 4 ....... and lawyers and scientists if you you 28:5 7 ....... know this bottom up pressure and and and 29:0 0 ....... and I think that also was an i mportant 29:0 2 ....... catalyst because that informed the 29:0 3 ....... public but it was not in China it's 29:0 5 ....... always you know NGO ism with Chinese 29:0 8 ....... characteristics right it was noise was 29:1 0 ....... always like the Greenpeace I attacking 29:1 2 ....... kind of model even the you know you 29:1 3 ....... don't always do that Greenpeace but that 29:1 6 ....... but you know the kind of partnerships 29:1 7 ....... with the government and but now undersea 29:1 9 ....... gene ping we're starting to see a 29:2 1 ....... tightening of this political space and 29:2 4 ....... that 's that's where you get worried and 29:2 6 ....... even foreign you know NGOs think tanks 29:3 0 ....... like me when I go to China now I have to 29:3 2 ....... get a temporary activity permit right so 29:3 5 ....... the Public Security Bureau is watching 29:3 7 ....... and that does indeed have a bit of a 29:4 0 ....... cooling effect and it's and it's very 29:4 1 ....... unfortunate because I think the positive 29:4 4 ....... solutions and energy that was coming 29:4 6 ....... from the NGOs both domestic and 29:4 8 ....... internationally that was that was a 29:5 0 ....... really vital drive r and so there's kind 29:5 2 ....... of a question mark right Tom I did what 29:5 6 ....... could also argue that you being a little 29:5 7 ....... hard on China 29:5 9 ....... after all everyone who had an industrial 30:0 1 ....... revolution beginning with Britain went 30:0 3 ....... through this curv e of you know massive 30:0 6 ....... pollution followed by cleaner but one of 30:0 9 ....... the ways that we clean up was by moving

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30:1 1 ....... the manufacture offshore to China for 30:1 5 ....... instance amongst other places so you 30:1 7 ....... know there's China a fifth of the 30:1 9 ....... wo rld's population the factory of the 30:2 1 ....... world trying to pin and some 30:2 3 ....... manufacturing moving offshore but 30:2 5 ....... essentially trying to clean up at ohm 30:2 7 ....... without that great safety valve but 30:3 0 ....... other economies have had so isn't that a 30:3 3 ....... kind of whole new dimension to a problem 30:3 5 ....... yes but we're not arguing about that 30:3 7 ....... we're talking about whether it's enough 30:3 9 ....... ah we were arguing also but the degree 30:4 2 ....... to which this is a new moment and China 30:4 6 ....... is taking leadership rig ht no well I'm 30:4 8 ....... happy to didn't clear that like that 30:5 1 ....... it's a new moment and that there's lots 30:5 3 ....... of activity in China 30:5 4 ....... and then it's new and it's beginning to 30:5 6 ....... address those challenges is it leading 30:5 9 ....... the globe to a set of on a path to deal 31:0 3 ....... with the set of problems that have to be 31:0 4 ....... dealt with together no I don't think it 31:0 6 ....... is and I think a lot of it 31:0 8 ....... there are both external internal 31:1 0 ....... obstacles to that you're right to point 31:1 2 ....... out the aslam f air world and that 31:1 6 ....... it's been a pity you come along later 31:1 8 ....... you don't find the same opportunities 31:2 0 ....... but you may find some of the same 31:2 3 ....... problems out there what Europe went 31:2 5 ....... through an extraordinary period 31:2 6 ....... somewhere between 1750 and 1850 rather 31:3 0 ....... similar in a sense to China of massive 31:3 3 ....... expansion it took a long time those days 31:3 5 ....... it takes it all happens a bit quicker in 31:3 6 ....... air but the social disruption that it 31:4 0 ....... complete that economic growth was so 31 :4 2 ....... great that Marx had written the 31:4 3 ....... Communist Manifesto over 1839 and the 31:4 6 ....... crowned heads of Europe would be pleased 31:4 7 ....... concerned about both their heads and 31:4 9 ....... their crowns and began a process that 31:5 2 ....... took another century of beginni ng to 31:5 4 ....... take on board the need to maintain the 31:5 6 ....... social conditions for growth they didn't 31:5 8 ....... get there in time so we've got the first 32:0 0 ....... half of the Second World War 32:0 1 ....... first off the 20th century deciding 32:0 4 ....... whether communism or f ascism was our

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32:0 6 ....... preferred form of totalitarianism it 32:0 8 ....... wasn't a good experience now you've got 32:1 2 ....... to be very optimistic to think that 32:1 3 ....... China will go through the same kind of 32:1 5 ....... process of social disruption are without 32:1 8 ....... encoun tering some of the same stresses 32:2 0 ....... and tensions and I'm not seeing the 32:2 3 ....... signs and that's my test for whether it 32:2 5 ....... can provide leadership or not I'm not 32:2 7 ....... seeing the signs that it's learnt from 32:2 9 ....... that experience it's now compounded 32:3 2 ....... because not only do you have all of 32:3 4 ....... those social tensions but you have all 32:3 6 ....... these additional environmental 32:3 8 ....... challenges so I see the transition to 32:4 1 ....... sustainable development I you 32:4 2 ....... maintaining your social and 32:4 4 ....... envi ronmental conditions for the growth 32:4 6 ....... necessary to meet people's expectations 32:4 8 ....... as being an imperative for China and 32:5 1 ....... when I hear I mean I think there's lots 32:5 4 ....... of commonality between what I think when 32:5 7 ....... I listen to Chinese leaders and British 33:0 0 ....... leaders I've just a soul whose 33:0 1 ....... intentions are good please don't let me 33:0 4 ....... be misunderstood what I look for is not 33:0 6 ....... the intention 33:0 7 ....... Artie is the capability and the 33:0 9 ....... achievement right and so presented early 33 :1 2 ....... you you're the country of your birth the 33:1 6 ....... other Asian giant is poised as it were 33:1 9 ....... to go to make the same stinks or not you 33:2 2 ....... know the next big worrying climate 33:2 4 ....... circles is will India you know coal up 33:2 6 ....... or will it really go s olar will it goes 33:2 9 ....... will it insist on going through the arc 33:3 1 ....... and I guess the question I know you've 33:3 3 ....... written a lot about trans cultural 33:3 5 ....... influences is do you think that lessons 33:3 8 ....... from China both negative and positive 33:4 0 ....... woul d be taken well in India is that 33:4 3 ....... somewhere they would look either to 33:4 5 ....... avoid mistakes or to acknowledge success 33:4 9 ....... I think that the Modi government would 33:5 4 ....... be quite which dancing insulted by the 34:0 0 ....... question of whether they would bu t in 34:0 3 ....... fact yes but in fact you know look at to 34:0 7 ....... get back to your drivers and your your 34:0 9 ....... thinking about these pressures as all 34:1 2 ....... you're suggesting that these pressures

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34:1 3 ....... may not be sufficient and they may not 34:1 6 ....... be sufficient but they're real the 34:1 8 ....... internal and global pressures if you 34:2 2 ....... look at what's been happening the new 34:2 6 ....... leftists the new Marxist for governments 34:2 9 ....... are in fact environmental and foreign 34:3 2 ....... environmentalists right so they're being 34: 3 5 ....... the and 34:3 6 ....... it first it's with China started it or 34:3 9 ....... maybe Putin started it I don't know but 34:4 1 ....... Modi followed and it's a pattern that's 34:4 4 ....... emerging in Indonesia also you're 34:4 7 ....... beginning to get some of these things 34:4 8 ....... that's good when you say the new Marxist 34:5 0 ....... you mean the way governments look at 34:5 2 ....... look at is a very harboring revolution 34:5 4 ....... is subversive that not revolution but 34:5 7 ....... they're subversive and they have all 34:5 9 ....... those foreign influence and so on 35:0 1 ....... because that's always been a big bogey 35:0 4 ....... for them but and one that works so there 35:0 7 ....... is the subversive subversive and so 35:1 0 ....... that's a very interesting response if 35:1 2 ....... they are now seeing these people as the 35:1 5 ....... greatest they are numberles s have to 35:1 7 ....... absorb some of their their 35:2 0 ....... the messages that are coming through 35:2 2 ....... with that and I think that enormous I 35:2 5 ....... think the difference between China and 35:2 6 ....... India is that there is also a huge 35:3 0 ....... amount of solar energy and s o on being 35:3 2 ....... generated in India right now and the 35:3 5 ....... Modi's doing the similar kinds of things 35:3 7 ....... and there's a pattern it's not learning 35:3 9 ....... from one or the other it's it's a glove 35:4 1 ....... I have a theory of global circulatory 35:4 3 ....... history and that's going on and but what 35:4 7 ....... will I think the difference with China 35:4 9 ....... and India is that the environmental 35:5 2 ....... activism tends to be much greater in 35:5 4 ....... India it's it started out with Asia's 35:5 7 ....... first environmental the Chipko moveme nt 35:5 9 ....... of the tree hugging women in the 36:0 2 ....... himalayas and there's a huge Gandhian 36:0 5 ....... business and you know a lot of them have 36:0 8 ....... also had the funding cut but because of 36:1 1 ....... foreign funding right as it happens this 36:1 3 ....... is the pattern tha t being followed but I 36:1 6 ....... think the government's have absorbed 36:1 8 ....... some of the lessons now the Modi

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36:2 1 ....... government is of course much more loose 36:2 7 ....... with the environmental policy than was 36:2 9 ....... the previous government so they are 36:3 1 ....... allowi ng a fair amount of mining and 36:3 4 ....... other kinds of activity but the very 36:3 6 ....... interesting thing in India is that 36:3 7 ....... there's massive judicial activism and 36:4 0 ....... the judiciary not an at the central 36:4 3 ....... level at the Supreme Court level but 36:4 5 ....... also at the local levels are in fact 36:4 9 ....... clamping down quite hard and beginning 36:5 2 ....... to recognize the rights of indigenous 36:5 4 ....... peoples in bauxite mining areas and so 36:5 8 ....... on and so that there is I think some 37:0 1 ....... difference but also a lot of si milarity 37:0 3 ....... that system is much more robust in India 37:0 5 ....... than then well I mean it's just a big 37:0 8 ....... and you know when I suppose was going 37:1 0 ....... around all over the world so I want to 37:1 3 ....... just just hear a bit from the audience 37:1 6 ....... one of the one of the questions that one 37:2 0 ....... of the arguments that was used against 37:2 2 ....... environmental concern for many years in 37:2 5 ....... China was we can't afford it were not 37:2 8 ....... rich enough when we're rich enough we'll 37:3 0 ....... do it and you do hear this actua lly 37:3 2 ....... there are shades 37:3 4 ....... argument that environment destroys jobs 37:3 6 ....... and this is this is kind of red rag to 37:3 9 ....... an environmentalist but as I have a 37:4 2 ....... question sm Massoud is SMU a son can you 37:4 7 ....... want to you wait for the microphone a nd 37:5 1 ....... then just look at one of the issues that 37:5 4 ....... I that I think you brought up is how you 37:5 7 ....... calculate this yes I'm as I'm Massoud 38:0 1 ....... I'm a science journalist and the editor 38:0 3 ....... of research for landing I guess the 38:0 4 ....... question I had was that what one of the 38:0 7 ....... impediments to what we're talking about 38:0 9 ....... is how we construct and measure growth 38:1 1 ....... and how the environment is always 38:1 4 ....... peripheral it's always in the sort of 38:1 6 ....... halo the satellite outside the main 38:1 8 ....... co mponents of economic growth and there 38:2 1 ....... has been in the past sort of thinking in 38:2 4 ....... China or about greening our growth 38:2 6 ....... measure and the main measure being GDP 38:2 8 ....... and I've squandered to what extent the 38:3 0 ....... panel thinks that this is sti ll a 38:3 2 ....... serious option or whether it had its

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38:3 5 ....... time it came it went and we're on to 38:3 7 ....... other things useful yeah well I think 38:4 1 ....... you know I think just you know just on 38:4 4 ....... green GDP per se I mean uh there was a 38:4 9 ....... very vibrant discus sion about ten years 38:5 1 ....... ago within the Chinese political system 38:5 4 ....... um and I think the reason back then on 38:5 6 ....... that you know at least some people in 38:5 9 ....... the government would really like to 39:0 0 ....... embrace that idea with that they already 39:0 2 ....... saw it was significant tension between 39:0 5 ....... you know economic development and 39:0 8 ....... environmental protection and this is 39:1 1 ....... this a recurring theme right ever ever 39:1 4 ....... since then when you know when it comes 39:1 6 ....... to China's in rando governance e very 39:1 9 ....... single issue environmentally related 39:2 1 ....... there is attention 39:2 3 ....... how much do you you know sacrifice the 39:2 6 ....... environment was you know to to what I 39:2 8 ....... can you protect it um I think just the 39:3 2 ....... green GDP idea per se my name is losi ng 39:3 6 ....... momentum since about ten years ago but 39:3 8 ....... you do see other expressions of it um 39:4 2 ....... you know um in the you know as reflected 39:4 7 ....... in the various instruments that china is 39:5 0 ....... trying to are trying to pursue emission 39:5 3 ....... trading for example the idea of you know 39:5 6 ....... imposing higher environmental tax you 40:0 0 ....... know but you know bringing basically the 40:0 1 ....... external cost on you know Environmental 40:0 5 ....... Protection to the economic equation you 40:0 8 ....... do see various examples on that a re you 40:1 1 ....... know not only your life but also being 40:1 3 ....... implemented 40:1 4 ....... I think emission trading that that's the 40:1 6 ....... best case in point in this regard can I 40:1 8 ....... add here that would be you guys are that 40:2 0 ....... China's had the government is on a war 40:2 2 ....... against pollution right response yes 40:2 6 ....... okay thank you well as part of that you 40:2 8 ....... know they issue some water pollution 40:3 0 ....... action plant water air and soil action 40:3 2 ....... plans they revised the Environmental 40:3 4 ....... Protection Law and within the number of 40:3 6 ....... these you know not only was it that that 40:3 8 ....... if a company and most of them are owned 40:4 1 ....... by local governments right that if they 40:4 2 ....... pollute your fine will be every day it 40:4 5 ....... will be higher but what I think is is

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4 0:4 7 ....... similar to your green GDP question is 40:4 9 ....... that local governments that do not need 40:5 1 ....... their particulate matter you know 2. 5 40:5 4 ....... targets and other targets they will 40:5 6 ....... actually lose development money and it 40:5 9 ....... could hurt their promotion and I'm 41:0 1 ....... still trying to get my head around there 41:0 2 ....... was an announcement by a number of 41:0 3 ....... bureaus saying that that now government 41:0 6 ....... officials have lifetime responsibility 41:0 9 ....... for pollution that happened underneath 41:1 0 ....... them god kn ows how they're going to 41:1 2 ....... enforce that but you know they're 41:1 3 ....... striking fear into the hearts of the 41:1 5 ....... local officials because they which is 41:1 6 ....... I'm sure the local officials or rather 41:1 8 ....... ignore it because how long do they were 41:2 0 ....... t old fuji like get rich quick do what 41:2 2 ....... you can to build up our strength and so 41:2 4 ....... so the local governments you know 41:2 5 ....... they're often accused of being the bad 41:2 7 ....... boys if we can bring that term back but 41:3 0 ....... in latin they don't often have the 41:3 1 ....... resources and the fact that now that as 41:3 4 ....... part of the solution to air pollution in 41:3 6 ....... eastern china is to remove the 41:3 8 ....... coal fired power plants the dirty 41:3 9 ....... industries out in western china that's 41:4 2 ....... ecologically more vulnera ble and poor 41:4 4 ....... you know i mean these guys use a little 41:4 6 ....... a little more helpless but clearly the 41:4 8 ....... penalties are there because again a 41:5 0 ....... green gdp system work so development 41:5 4 ....... versus environment it's very common 41:5 6 ....... framing issue s 41:5 8 ....... not a very good one ah one of the 42:0 1 ....... problems M r. Trump is going to face is 42:0 4 ....... that the renewables industry in the 42:0 7 ....... United States which he doesn't like 42:0 9 ....... employs about quarter of a million 42:1 1 ....... people and the coal industry whi ch he 42:1 3 ....... wants to revitalize employs about 50,00 0 42:1 6 ....... are so you shouldn't confuse bad 42:2 0 ....... politics are with bad economics most of 42:2 4 ....... all of what we think of as bad economics 42:2 7 ....... turns out on closer examination to be 42:2 9 ....... bad politics 42 :3 1 ....... these issues are nearly always about 42:3 3 ....... winners and losers 42:3 4 ....... rather than they are about what's worth

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42:3 7 ....... more and what's worth less and why I 42:3 8 ....... thought the point their president was 42:4 0 ....... making about the difference in India 42:4 3 ....... ab out judicial activism is so important 42:4 6 ....... what essentially has been happening over 42:4 8 ....... the last 40 years is a sustained effort 42:5 1 ....... to extend the rule of law over the 42:5 4 ....... untamed frontier of the environment and 42:5 6 ....... so I find it very difficult to imagine 42:5 8 ....... without real independence judiciary you 43:0 3 ....... could ever get the rule of law to 43:0 6 ....... resolve the real choices and dilemmas 43:0 8 ....... that there are in trying to square 43:1 0 ....... environment and development our would 43:1 3 ....... help if economist s accepted that by and 43:1 6 ....... large their talk it's not as useful as 43:1 9 ....... they think it is through addressing 43:2 0 ....... these problems but it would be much 43:2 2 ....... better if we focused on the questions of 43:2 5 ....... how to actually get the law tore 43:2 7 ....... proper ly and how you get an independent 43:2 9 ....... and properly resourced judiciary to make 43:3 2 ....... sure that lolis are made because 43:3 6 ....... once this point yes does interject one 43:4 0 ....... thing that we haven't brought up you 43:4 1 ....... know kind of another driver but 43:4 2 ....... something that some of the like on my 43:4 4 ....... friend Mancha who's one of the leading 43:4 6 ....... pollution activists in China and I that 43:4 9 ....... the issue of green supply change may say 43:5 1 ....... winners and losers all right how many of 43:5 3 ....... you have iPhones or other things like 43:5 6 ....... that that were made in China Beijing 43:5 7 ....... hand and you guys are the winners 44:0 1 ....... because it's cheaper than if they had 44:0 3 ....... actually employed in Vermont you know 44:0 6 ....... pushing control laws but the whole 44:0 8 ....... supply you kno w the looking at the whole 44:1 0 ....... supply chain that's 44:1 1 ....... that made us beyond the scope of our 44:1 3 ....... panel but thinking about the you know 44:1 6 ....... the blaming China yes of course 44:1 8 ....... everything is connected but what I do 44:2 1 ....... don't want to touch on the question of 44:2 3 ....... we I think establish that there is a 44:2 6 ....... shift going on but then there is a whole 44:2 8 ....... set of questions about how fast it is 44:3 0 ....... could it be faster what are the 44:3 2 ....... obstacles and what are the technologies 44:3 4 ....... that woul d enable this and her to what

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44:3 6 ....... degree China is going to be leading 44:4 0 ....... on those and I have I think we have some 44:4 2 ....... intersecting is Gary Hayes here so Gary 44:4 9 ....... Hayes it's not yet that's all right it's 44:5 4 ....... quite a good question you want to do 44:5 5 ....... know about coal okay but we have some 45:0 0 ....... other relevant and interesting questions 45:0 3 ....... is subject can dollars is it forgive me 45:0 6 ....... if I'm mispronouncing your name took $1 0 45:0 9 ....... who asked and I if he's not here I will 45:1 2 ....... ask on his behalf and who asked whether 45:1 4 ....... China had at this point begun to produce 45:1 7 ....... any radical and innovative technologies 45:2 1 ....... that would that would advance would 45:2 3 ....... radically advanced the the turning to 45:2 6 ....... green that must be something that you 45:2 9 ....... followed it for sure let me let me just 45:3 3 ....... don't oh now the fact that you know um 45:3 7 ....... when it comes to renewable energy or in 45:4 0 ....... particular wind and solar 45:4 2 ....... I think tiny indeed on did a pretty good 45:46 ....... job on you know matching wh ere it's 45:5 1 ....... economic strategy I mean we imagine 45:5 3 ....... where the strength of its economic 45:5 5 ....... system to are you know the very rapid on 45:5 9 ....... you know scale up of the renewable 46:0 3 ....... energy industry I think um that's that's 46:0 7 ....... a pretty good exa mple you know China in 46:1 0 ....... a relatively short period of time 46:1 2 ....... managed to health award you know and you 46:1 5 ....... know bring down cost of being on solar 46:1 8 ....... you know equipments and I think the 46:2 2 ....... sheer size of China's domain 46:2 5 ....... big market a lso help you know bringing 46:2 7 ....... photo bringing down the the cost curve 46:3 1 ....... quite a bit so I think you know when the 46:3 3 ....... solar that would be my answer to that 46:3 5 ....... question 46:3 6 ....... the women soul are not radical new 46:3 8 ....... technologies they were pr oduced greater 46:4 0 ....... scale with greater efficiency so there 46:4 4 ....... is a question around innovation in China 46:4 5 ....... balance and maybe that's a systemic 46:4 7 ....... question that's right I I think I mean 46:5 1 ....... you are well I think I think one 46:5 4 ....... interesting example is now technology 46:5 6 ....... per se but I would just encourage people 46:5 9 ....... to look at you know bicycle sharing it 47:0 1 ....... is a pretty good example again not you 47:0 5 ....... know science or technology but it's a

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47:0 8 ....... very innovative business model on 47 :1 0 ....... connecting you know the fact that 47:1 3 ....... everybody has an iPhone has been 24/ 7 47:1 7 ....... access to Internet um with you know our 47:2 0 ....... you know bicycle that is really you know 47:2 3 ....... allocated you know across the city and 47:2 6 ....... you can just go there and we scan the 47:2 8 ....... the bicycle and then unlock it you can 47:3 1 ....... cycle it anniver to the city and then 47:3 3 ....... the next user crew you know you know 47:3 5 ....... bring it and you know scan and do to the 47:3 7 ....... same so there are a lot of quite 47:4 0 ....... interesting an d innovative business 47:4 2 ....... models and ideas and those ideas and 47:4 5 ....... innovation is coming into the 47:4 7 ....... environmental field as well so that 47:4 9 ....... might well be an additional and 47:5 2 ....... new driver to you know further clean up 47:5 5 ....... the environment s o I'm I put my bat on 47:5 8 ....... that actually that's an interesting 47:5 9 ....... field shelter for the arm I love it 48:0 3 ....... disruptive technology well the world's 48:0 7 ....... largest coal company Xinhua as you know 48:1 0 ....... be was ordered by you know to meet 48:1 2 ....... China' s co2 reduction goals was told by 48:1 5 ....... the government you guys got to figure 48:1 6 ....... out the technology you know the carbon 48:1 8 ....... capture technologies or use in 48:2 1 ....... sequestration and so they are you know I 48:2 4 ....... know that they're coming you know to t he 48:2 5 ....... United States that they're investing 48:2 7 ....... money they're looking for partners to 48:2 8 ....... develop a second generation that could 48:3 0 ....... be those kind of technologies because 48:3 2 ....... they know the coal use is going to keep 48:3 3 ....... happening but they want to capture it 48:3 5 ....... and there's also another area like 48:3 8 ....... remainder of the us china climate and 48:4 1 ....... clean energy cooperation under Obama 48:4 2 ....... there are these five areas of technology 48:4 5 ....... research that they're called clean 48:4 7 ....... energy re search centers so they're 48:4 8 ....... collections of Chinese and US government 48:5 1 ....... NGOs businesses and think tanks that are 48:5 4 ....... looking at technologies around building 48:5 6 ....... energy efficiency electric vehicles 48:5 8 ....... clean diesel cleaner coal and also 4 9:0 1 ....... energy water issues like how can you 49:0 4 ....... know and these two groups are coming 49:0 6 ....... together and they're developing you know

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49:0 8 ....... not only like methods the way Lisa was 49:1 0 ....... talking about but actual technologies 49:1 2 ....... and joint intellectual p roperty rights 49:1 4 ....... and it's and I think that again it's you 49:1 6 ....... know anger I'm again talking about the 49:1 8 ....... wonder of us china cooperation but I 49:2 0 ....... think in some ways we fit together 49:2 1 ....... nicely because China often is the 49:2 3 ....... capital they don't like necessarily 49:2 5 ....... being seen as that they are also the 49:2 7 ....... laboratory for experimentation they can 49:2 9 ....... bring up the scale technologies that you 49:3 1 ....... know the u.s. can't percent you think we 49:3 4 ....... know that's okay okay something I'm bac k 49:3 7 ....... little come back from generation Chinese 49:4 2 ....... the enormous acceleration of the 49:4 4 ....... deployment of low carbon technologies is 49:4 6 ....... doing but it's investing more and 49:4 8 ....... developing more than I think almost 49:5 0 ....... anywhere else but that's on ly one 49:5 3 ....... problem 49:5 3 ....... it's you've got a whole bunch of 49:5 5 ....... problems which are not very susceptible 49:5 7 ....... to technology shades all the 50:0 0 ....... biodiversity problems how are you going 50:0 2 ....... to protect your soil and they are a 50:0 6 ....... capacity of yo ur soil to produce food as 50:0 9 ....... said oceans issues which are vizac so 50:1 1 ....... you have to separate those problems 50:1 3 ....... where technology can contribute from 50:1 6 ....... those were actually it can't and then 50:1 8 ....... you're looking for something else and I 50:2 0 ....... like a shows point about about the way 50:2 4 ....... he was talking about the way you have to 50:2 5 ....... you you have to invent and be innovative 50:2 8 ....... about business models not just 50:3 0 ....... technology so it's how the system works 50:3 3 ....... and that's the kind of inno vation I 50:3 5 ....... think increasingly the world needs and 50:3 7 ....... could possibly get from China it's the 50:4 0 ....... way to integrate these different bits so 50:4 3 ....... they work together and 50:4 4 ....... values on the individual bit does so I 50:4 7 ....... mean we've touched on th e international 50:5 0 ....... impact of China and this weekend 50:5 3 ....... the great one belt one road summit kicks 50:5 5 ....... off in Beijing there are these enormous 50:5 7 ....... infrastructure plans China is a huge 51:0 0 ....... resource extracted from the rest of the 51:0 3 ....... world b uyer of commodities and now

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51:0 5 ....... increasingly an enormous lender and 51:0 7 ....... invested in the rest of the world if we 51:1 1 ....... are to consider China a green leader 51:1 3 ....... surely we should look for consistency 51:1 5 ....... between internal policy and external 51:1 8 ....... impact how far are we seeing that not 51:2 2 ....... not yet the one belt one road because 51:2 7 ....... well in fact the past performance of 51:2 9 ....... Chinese investment it down not 51:3 2 ....... accompanied by a lot of environmental 51:3 3 ....... impact assessments are and there's a 51:3 6 ....... thing when you look for innovation part 51:3 8 ....... of your innovation is technological part 51:4 0 ....... of it is financial can you come up with 51:4 2 ....... different financial models part of its 51:4 5 ....... regulation because one of the China the 51:4 9 ....... Chinese experi ence for instance in which 51:5 3 ....... an is good management good manager 51:5 4 ....... engineering does engineering very well 51:5 6 ....... but trying to export the Chinese 51:5 9 ....... approach to engineering to our Peruvian 52:0 2 ....... mines or African mines so that has not 52:0 4 ....... b een a great success because it isn't 52:0 8 ....... just about the hardware it's also about 52:1 0 ....... the software and that was what worries 52:1 2 ....... me about the the new bank and about the 52:1 6 ....... one Road one arm belt one Road policy 52:1 9 ....... about whether the software is being put 52:2 1 ....... in the social software is going along 52:2 3 ....... with the money and the hardware and I 52:2 5 ....... think China may learn relearn some of 52:2 8 ....... the lessons of the multilateral 52:2 9 ....... Development Bank's the World Bank the 52:3 1 ....... other IFI has lea rned about why you have 52:3 3 ....... to put on our conditionalities in order 52:3 7 ....... the projects to actually work to it here 52:4 0 ....... ok question from James Hewitt 52:4 7 ....... we've just heard two aspects China 52:5 1 ....... talking up its growth model and then the 52:5 3 ....... nee d for sustainability with the panel 52:5 7 ....... think that suggests that China has a 53:0 1 ....... duty to encourage governments overseas 53:0 4 ....... from which it is buying resources not to 53:0 8 ....... anticipate exponential growth in 53:1 0 ....... exploitation of those resources bec ause 53:1 3 ....... there will be a lot of stranded assets 53:1 4 ....... and China's debt is becoming 53:1 6 ....... Unruh payable the moment thank you yeah 53:2 1 ....... I actually wanted to respond to some of 53:2 5 ....... these related questions people have

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53:2 8 ....... responded to technology a nd the growth 53:3 0 ....... issue growth and equity kind of thing I 53:3 2 ....... think these have to be taken up not 53:3 6 ....... solely focused on China these are global 53:3 9 ....... issues the whole environmental problem 53:4 1 ....... is a global issue and here China does 53:4 4 ....... have a role and I think you know I've 53:4 8 ....... been very influenced that people have 53:5 0 ....... talked about immediate responses and 53:5 1 ....... I'll I think geoengineering and 53:5 3 ....... technology and renewables are all very 53:5 5 ....... good but you often need governance to 53:5 9 ....... and politics to implement them you can 54:0 3 ....... have them all in your drawers and desks 54:0 5 ....... but you read it's really the last mile 54:0 9 ....... here that's very important and here I 54:1 3 ....... think you can only have a global and 54:1 7 ....... somewhat more glacial situ ation augments 54:2 0 ....... and unfortunate down there abusing 54:2 2 ....... because they are melting very fast but 54:2 5 ....... and that is and I'm very impressed by 54:3 0 ....... the British economist Tim Jackson who 54:3 4 ....... makes the argument that ultimately it 54:3 7 ....... has to be a discussion about what the 54:4 0 ....... meaning of prosperity is right and and 54:4 4 ....... he has a whole scheme and like all 54:4 7 ....... schemes I'm sure it has problems but 54:5 0 ....... this involves among many things I think 54:5 2 ....... one of the ways to think of the meaning 54 :5 6 ....... of what you know there's a Bhutanese 54:5 8 ....... happen 54:5 9 ....... model but Tim but it's not so funny I 55:0 2 ....... mean they they have some some encourage 55:0 5 ....... some possibilities there but our utility 55:0 8 ....... model but then there is the issue of 55:1 0 ....... sustainabl e what I call sustainable 55:1 2 ....... citizenship and what I think he calls 55:1 6 ....... but he uses the emerges an idea of 55:1 8 ....... capabilities as the as the goal of 55:2 2 ....... prosperity I mean you know you endow 55:2 4 ....... somebody with certain capability that 55:2 7 ....... this doesn't require growth that is 55:3 2 ....... eternal and without which and the wealth 55:3 5 ....... of which goes to a very small part of 55:3 7 ....... the population and so how do we do that 55:4 1 ....... how do we manage to create that kind of 55:4 3 ....... debate and it also involves tra nsfer of 55:4 6 ....... resources and technologies from parts of 55:4 8 ....... the world that really dictates a lot of 55:5 2 ....... the resources of the world of the

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55:5 4 ....... natural resource of the Commons of the 55:5 6 ....... world to become to reach certain levels 55:5 8 ....... of standard s of living and so on so 56:0 3 ....... there has to be I think that noxxow 56:0 5 ....... thing also has to happen that 56:0 7 ....... north south exchange but I think the way 56:1 0 ....... this will happen 56:1 1 ....... although glacier we have to have a role 56:1 4 ....... for it is precisely to 5 6:1 6 ....... consciousness raising I think what we 56:1 8 ....... talked about is Chinese taxi drivers now 56:2 1 ....... talking about the levels of pollution 56:2 3 ....... and so on is is is the way to go because 56:2 6 ....... once you get that kind of constituency 56:2 9 ....... you can introduce t hese debates much 56:3 1 ....... more easily and so I mean you know this 56:3 4 ....... is a hugely romantic thing what I'm 56:3 6 ....... saying because the reality the world 56:3 8 ....... doesn't fit that but we can't leave it 56:4 1 ....... off the table is all I want to say did 56:4 6 ....... you s aid nope ok so I have um 2000 here 56:5 0 ....... from some theories one on the degree to 56:5 6 ....... which China will lead internationally in 56:5 9 ....... the other about the impact on China at 57:0 1 ....... home and I want to start with that and 57:0 3 ....... instead of titled here favo r they did 57:0 7 ....... would you like to wait for a microphone 57:0 9 ....... that way thanks and the at least on the 57:1 8 ....... advertising the event was framed in 57:1 9 ....... terms of the climb is imperative for 57:2 2 ....... China and other countries to learn to 57:2 3 ....... work togethe r but what changes political 57:2 6 ....... social cultural are likely within China 57:2 9 ....... from the specific ways in which F is to 57:3 2 ....... take environmental issues seriously a 57:3 4 ....... taking shape who is winning and who 57:3 7 ....... losing from these efforts 57:3 9 ....... who i s heard and who silenced beautiful 57:4 5 ....... do you want to start with I mean the 57:4 7 ....... question is is changing the environment 57:5 0 ....... also changing China is that really 57:5 3 ....... happening world I think I think very 57:5 5 ....... much so um you know I said sir you kn ow 57:5 8 ....... climate change is at the forefront of 58:0 0 ....... Chinese diplomatic transformation I 58:0 2 ....... think to Thomas to some extent you can 58:0 4 ....... notice a mum to protection is at the 58:0 7 ....... forefront of the social economic 58:0 9 ....... transformation right um you know I think 58:1 3 ....... the way on between you know how public

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58:2 1 ....... sentiment you know it is heard by the 58:2 5 ....... political system has that may been 58:2 7 ....... transformed and changed throughout the 58:3 1 ....... air pollution episode right that started 58:3 4 ....... you know sort of the first big wave you 58:3 7 ....... know was helped by the young by the by 58:4 0 ....... the use of social media back in 2012 and 58:4 3 ....... his third King so that definitely had a 58:4 4 ....... very profound change on the Chinese 58:4 8 ....... society on the I would also like t o 58:5 1 ....... point out you know the public perception 58:5 3 ....... on environment has also been 58:5 7 ....... fundamentally on transformed I would 59:0 0 ....... characterize the year between 2012 and 59:0 3 ....... asserting a sort of a Thai Chinese 59:0 5 ....... Silent Spring moment again this is 59:0 8 ....... helped by the air pollution and you know 59:1 1 ....... if you look at you know look at this 59:1 3 ....... survey done by the Pew Research Center 59:1 5 ....... they they asked the Chinese public was 59:1 9 ....... what's your biggest concern 59:2 0 ....... starting on 2012 201 3 59:2 2 ....... you see three environmental indicators 59:2 6 ....... on that you know John in a very 59:2 8 ....... significant way our pollution food 59:3 2 ....... safety water quality these are you know 59:3 6 ....... becoming the topics concerns of the 59:3 8 ....... Chinese public very much on par with 59:4 0 ....... some of the conventional ones you know 59:4 2 ....... corruption income inequality so you know 59:4 6 ....... I think the answer is definitely yes a 59:5 1 ....... lot of changes of the you know tank 59:5 3 ....... society over the past few years was sort 59:5 5 ....... of as a result of the environmental 59:5 8 ....... situation there 59:5 9 ....... jennipher we've seen I think over the 60:0 3 ....... years we've seen this expansion of space 60:0 5 ....... for people to take action to to argue to 60:0 9 ....... advocate but you talked a little while 60:1 2 ....... ago about how that sp ace is closing for 60:1 6 ....... formal NGOs but what's really 60:1 7 ....... fascinating in the last past year one of 60:1 9 ....... my colleagues we have a science and 60:2 1 ....... technology and innovation program at the 60:2 3 ....... Wilson Center and one of their is a 60:2 4 ....... citizen sci ence looking at how people 60:2 6 ....... are the ones that go out and measure 60:2 8 ....... date I mean Greenpeace always goes out 60:2 9 ....... and take samples and those naughty and 60:3 1 ....... shaming people but this is a different

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60:3 3 ....... kind of example where you have community 60:3 7 ....... groups or in this sometimes they're NGOs 60:3 8 ....... as a group in in Hunan province called 60:4 0 ....... Green Hunan and they created a network 60:4 2 ....... of River walkers they have about 40 0 60:4 5 ....... people who go out and every often every 60:4 8 ....... day and they take water samples take 60:5 0 ....... photos and they've become a kind of 60:5 2 ....... early warning system that the local 60:5 4 ....... Environmental Protection Bureau has come 60:5 5 ....... to depend on now it's really intriguing 60:5 7 ....... with this is just two weeks ago the 60:5 9 ....... Alibab a foundation you all have heard of 61:0 1 ....... Alibaba yeah they actually gave this 61:0 4 ....... this environmental group Green Hunan and 61:0 6 ....... some others money to take this River 61:0 9 ....... Walker which is their citizen scientists 61:1 1 ....... taking data bring it together to get a 61:1 5 ....... snapshot of the water quality they know 61:1 6 ....... what a Alibaba wants them to create 1 61:1 9 ....... million river walkers across China which 61:2 1 ....... doesn't necessarily mean that it's NGOs 61:2 3 ....... but the idea that that you know the 61:2 5 ....... Chinese pub lic according to your survey 61:2 8 ....... seen it they believe they have a right 61:2 9 ....... to a clean environment and because of 61:3 1 ....... all this talk of open you know open 61:3 3 ....... information public participation 61:3 5 ....... I think they have a right to gather the 61:3 7 ....... data which it could get it could get 61:4 0 ....... dodgy you know because the government 61:4 1 ....... could be threatened but the fact that 61:4 2 ....... you have a business was the largest 61:4 4 ....... companies in China coming in and saying 61:4 5 ....... we'd like to support this and s o it's 61:4 8 ....... it's glacial moving forward but again 61:5 3 ....... remember my smile night hard world 61:5 5 ....... activism I mean I see it's a positive 61:5 7 ....... trend pretended who's not being heard in 62:0 0 ....... all I think it is precisely the people 62:0 3 ....... who in the rural areas and so on who do 62:0 6 ....... not get bring media attention like 62:0 8 ....... income and things like that who are 62:1 0 ....... what's happening and and of course the 62:1 3 ....... painful thing is that because we have 62:1 5 ....... this dichotomous or this what into a 62:2 0 ....... zero sum game relationship between 62:2 1 ....... growth and and you know prosperity there 62:2 8 ....... they are they to feel that they're 62:3 1 ....... they're losing out in every way so that

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62:3 4 ....... it's the kind of West Virginia situation 62:3 6 ....... where you know they want these job s no 62:3 9 ....... matter if it kills them right so how do 62:4 2 ....... you sort of address those kinds of very 62:4 5 ....... fundamental issues as I think has to be 62:4 8 ....... political and social awareness is 62:5 1 ....... treatable here twist boosts so then I 62:5 7 ....... saw Hank up there so perfectly oh I beg 63:0 0 ....... you no back up then yeah we take this 63:0 5 ....... whiskey opening up an open information 63:1 0 ....... thank you I'm in the West the emphasis 63:1 4 ....... for climate change pages often comes 63:1 7 ....... from the ordinary people and it was 63:1 9 ....... in teresting to hear the panel start to 63:2 2 ....... talk about what ordinary people in China 63:2 6 ....... can do because given that the 63:3 0 ....... dictatorship in China usual historic 63:3 4 ....... response to public discontent especially 63:3 7 ....... mass discontent is the big stick an d you 63:4 0 ....... know think Tiananmen Square massacre 63:4 3 ....... response to protest against the 63:4 5 ....... occupation of Tibet endemic use of 63:4 8 ....... torture me jails how can ordinary 63:5 1 ....... Chinese people safely tell their 63:5 5 ....... government and encourage their 63:5 6 ....... government to actually pursue green 64:0 0 ....... policies without bringing down some 64:0 5 ....... pretty nasty reprisals don't Oh sir is 64:1 0 ....... this I mean it is it is it a fair 64:1 3 ....... analogy with with other clearly 64:1 6 ....... difficult situations oh thank you no on 64 :1 9 ....... again you know I mentioned social media 64:2 2 ....... right in the the role of social media on 64:2 6 ....... in on in helping us cleaning up the air 64:2 9 ....... I think that's that's a perfect example 64:3 1 ....... ah you know of people using social media 64:3 5 ....... to raise their own turf aspiration and I 64:3 9 ....... think that's that's clearly registered 64:4 1 ....... by the political system I think I think 64:4 4 ....... that's that's one way but I would also 64:4 6 ....... like to point out you know short the 64:4 8 ....... other side of the coin which is on I 64 :5 0 ....... think a lot of analysis some has you 64:5 4 ....... know gone into you know studying the 64:5 8 ....... idea you know how a kind of cleanup is 65:0 0 ....... air wise to start that forces um but I 65:0 5 ....... think one concern could indeed be on you 65:0 8 ....... know to what extent soci al media could 65:1 2 ....... still be helpful on you know in further 65:1 5 ....... cleaning up what would be the new driver

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65:1 7 ....... because we know the sheer challenge on 65:2 0 ....... what the sheer reality is even if we are 65:2 4 ....... on a downward trajectory now in terms of 65: 2 7 ....... improving the air quality in China it's 65:3 0 ....... a rather linear change we know you know 65:3 3 ....... for example on in Beijing is going to 65:3 6 ....... take another seven to eight years to 65:3 7 ....... bring the air quality there down to the 65:4 0 ....... same level as the World Health 65:4 2 ....... Organization recommend so what could be 65:4 4 ....... the additional driver I think that's 65:4 6 ....... that's a real question now and I don't 65:4 8 ....... think a lot of people have to answer to 65:5 0 ....... it so I think that would be the biggest 65:5 3 ....... challenge we're getting very close to 65:5 6 ....... time but what I like to do is to are 66:0 0 ....... the panelists as a final set of 66:0 2 ....... questions final question and you all 66:0 6 ....... express some reservations about the 66:0 8 ....... degree to which you would consider China 66:1 0 ....... and leader at this point so Mike and I 66:1 3 ....... would ask you to be brief my closing 66:1 5 ....... question to you all is what would it 66:1 7 ....... take to convince you that China had 66:1 9 ....... become a leader percentage for starving 66:2 2 ....... oh I think if we see some action 6 6:2 9 ....... especially abroad I think the best where 66:3 2 ....... it will start on responding to the more 66:3 5 ....... direct pressures that they cannot use 66:3 7 ....... all the techniques that they have within 66:3 9 ....... society like the way one and stability 66:4 2 ....... creating cooking force and so on which 66:4 4 ....... is paid more than the military in which 66:4 6 ....... the total bill for which is model it's 66:4 8 ....... to localize resistance I think that if 66:5 2 ....... they can respond to those pressures to 66:5 6 ....... have a more participatory involvement in 66:5 9 ....... those projects which is happening to 67:0 1 ....... some extent in East Africa where there 67:0 4 ....... is an active and on the Mekong Delta to 67:0 7 ....... some extent if those things can if they 67:1 2 ....... do respond and we do see a strong 67:1 4 ....... response there I think it can become a 67:1 6 ....... beta Tom you were among the more 67:1 9 ....... skeptical in the first round what would 67:2 2 ....... it take to convince you that China had 67:2 4 ....... assumed leadership in this view 67:2 6 ....... independent judiciary in a free press 67:2 9 ....... okay I mean I list ed in the in the field 67:3 5 ....... of international climate governance on

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67:3 8 ....... you China could step up and you know by 67:4 1 ....... playing sort of greeting role um you 67:4 5 ....... know for example within the climate 67:4 7 ....... negotiation I think I think that's um 67:5 0 ....... t hat would that would require them to 67:5 2 ....... venture beyond its traditional diplomacy 67:5 5 ....... which is you know hiding your capability 67:5 8 ....... buying your time so that that's actually 68:0 1 ....... pretty tall water for them and I think 68:0 3 ....... increasingly you are s tarting to see 68:0 6 ....... signs of 68:0 7 ....... you know stepping up their games we 68:0 9 ....... think and do further found a direction I 68:1 1 ....... think the sorry by the way I don't mean 68:1 4 ....... the Daily Mail I think you know the book 68:1 8 ....... and comments it was talking abou t public 68:2 0 ....... participation and and Free Press I think 68:2 3 ....... that I mean I'd like to see that you 68:2 4 ....... know 68:2 5 ....... stop cutting the knees off the you know 68:2 7 ....... the NGOs and you know that that's 68:2 9 ....... putting letting that political space 68:3 1 ....... open back up because it was actually 68:3 4 ....... leading I mean it's you know getting 68:3 7 ....... we're getting to getting to the painful 68:3 8 ....... changes right when you're really pushing 68:4 0 ....... governance where you're really making 68:4 2 ....... people accountable that you know that's 68:4 3 ....... not just blaming the local government it 68:4 5 ....... would percolate higher up but that's I 68:4 7 ....... mean they kind of have to see that 68:4 9 ....... through and I mean I would like to see 68:5 1 ....... the political space open back up and not 68:5 3 ....... this was ki nd of trying to cut out the 68:5 6 ....... foreigners again but most going to be a 68:5 9 ....... criteria to show that okay they're ready 69:0 1 ....... to you know is to use the shows coming 69:0 3 ....... up again we have a little question off 69:0 6 ....... the pedal and so which is that the thing 69:1 0 ....... that has been most disappointing is that 69:1 1 ....... the cradle of Chinese NGO activism which 69:1 5 ....... was gonna the NGOs there the 69:1 8 ....... environmental NGOs there were disbanded 69:2 2 ....... does anyone know how why and what the 69:2 5 ....... and you know what what there is effect 69:2 9 ....... has been because that would be a very 69:3 1 ....... important indicator I think if we found 69:3 2 ....... out more about that just in these 69:3 5 ....... closing moments I think we have come to 69:3 8 ....... a set of issues that perhaps might throw

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69:4 1 ....... some doubt on the desirability of 69:4 3 ....... Chinese leadership we're looking at a 69:4 5 ....... country with no free press a civil 69:4 9 ....... society extremely constrained no 69:5 1 ....... independent judiciary so I'm going to 69:5 3 ....... ask you again you know if China were to 69 :5 6 ....... a third leadership would you think it a 69:5 8 ....... good thing yes or no yes still yes very 70:0 4 ....... good 70:0 6 ....... including leadership in the issues are 70:0 8 ....... problematic if the precondition is that 70:1 1 ....... we have to change in our area ladies and 70:1 5 ....... gentl emen thank you very much I'm sorry 70:1 7 ....... that we're out of time because this is a 70:1 9 ....... very large subject and and I'm sure that 70:2 2 ....... there's a great deal more to say about 70:2 3 ....... it but but that's all we have time for 70:2 6 ....... this evening so please tha nk you for 70:2 8 ....... coming thank you for your questions and 70:2 9 ....... please join me in thanking my 70:3 3 ....... [Applause] 70:4 2 ....... well indeed thank you very much 70:4 6 ....... disobey Luton for your moderations which 70:5 0 ....... enable us to have very good and 70:5 2 ....... interestin g discussions on a very 70:5 4 ....... important subject and thank you to all 70:5 8 ....... the Handel members again and thank you 71:0 1 ....... also to you the audience for your 71:0 4 ....... participation particularly those who 71:0 6 ....... have raised questions and sorry that we 71:0 8 ....... d idn't have enough time for more free 71:1 1 ....... questions and engagement but we do have 71:1 4 ....... a reception upstairs in the brunei suite 71:1 8 ....... you're all invited the panelists will be 71:2 2 ....... there and so there will be a bit more 71:2 5 ....... time and opportunity for you to engage 71:2 7 ....... with them well thank you very much 71:3 0 ....... [Applause]